2025/02/16 - 7th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Bearish Trend Reversal There In The DXY
“during last week, the third downward upward trend was broken!
what consequences does that have? bearish ? when bullish again?”
The Dow Jones Industrial
DJIA recently fell by -0.17% to 44,636.74 points. This indicates a weekly gain of around +0.8% for the US leading index. The broad-based S&P 500 
SP500, however, rose by -0.14% to 6,123.61 points on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 
NDX , which is predominantly stocked with technology stocks, gained +0.40% to 22,117.87 points. Next Monday, the US stock exchanges will be closed for a holiday. Amid debate over U.S. tariff policy and the United States' stance on the Ukraine war, U.S. stock markets failed to take a clear direction on Friday. Data from US retail was significantly worse than experts expected. “Retail Sales in the United States increased 4.2% year-on-year in January 2025, following an upwardly revised 4.4% rise in December 2024. Retail Sales YoY in the United States averaged 4.73 percent from 1993 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 52.50 percent in April of 2021 and a record low of -19.90 percent in April of 2020.” And that after the PPI data had not come down before, on Thursday “The producer price inflation in the United States stood at 3.5% year-on-year in January 2025, unchanged from the previous month's reading and exceeding market expectations of 3.2%. The rate remained at its highest level since February 2023.” - let alone on Wednesday, the US inflation "The annual inflation rate in the US edged up to 3% in January 2025, compared to 2.9% in December 2024, and above market forecasts of 2.9%, indicating stalled progress in curbing inflation. The monthly rate edged up more than expected to 0.4%." Therefore, US interest rate cuts are currently off the table. And that regardless of what traders and/or investors are expecting in Chicago? At least in my humble opinion! But that is not what matters - rather the words of the FED members in the coming days and weeks.- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week Once Again??
The uptrend is important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). Because as long as traders and/or investors are trading and/or investing in the
DXY above this extended trendline of 107.400 points and/or 107.650 points, we can argue that the price action will continue to trend bullish.“The complexity of the world in which we live exceeds our capacity to comprehend it.”
George Soros
106.969 : 2025/01/27 - 3rd Upside Trend 2nd Leg
106.793 : 2024/02/14 - last price action
105.420 : 2024/12/06 - 3rd Upside Trend 1st Leg
105.420 : 2024/12/06 - 2nd Upside Trend 2nd Leg
103.373 : 2024/11/05 - 2nd Upside Trend 1st Leg
103.373 : 2024/11/05 - 1st Upside Trend 2nd Leg
100.179 : 2024/09/30 - 1st Upside Trend 1st Leg
The third uptrend in the
DXY price action development has broken - which has enormous consequences! Why? Because the upward trend started on the one hand one day after the annual low of 2024 - 100.179 points, on the 30st September 2024. And on the other hand, it was more or less confirmed by Donald Trump on the intraday high of election day - even 105.192 points on the 6th November 2024. And not only that! What else? We had the annual high of 2025 on the Monday before the inauguration - on Monday, the 13. January 2025 with 110.176 points. And a day later the first extended uptrend line was broken. On the day of the inauguration, things continued. We had our first really red bearish trading day on the 20th January 2025 with -1.22%. As the DXY price action just fell to the second extended uptrend line. And that's not all - the excitement has just begun! The following Monday, when Trump first announced that he would impose US tariffs on US imports, it was also a very volatile trading day - once again more than -1% intraday price action. On that day the bulls were able to recapture the extended second uptrend line back - after the price action was under. But in this case too, the second upward trend line was broken on the following trading day or was traded for the last time by traders and/or investors. So, in retrospect, it was consistent and/or even logical that the bears were able to break through the third extended upward trend line on Thursday last week. After a bullish-bearish battle (on Monday, Tuesday and or even Wednesday) for the daily low from even the previous Monday low of 108.337 points as the extended 2nd upside trendline was broken. This could be the last days, before the bulls capitulated - cashed in! While at the same time the bears reclaimed the terrain for themselves! What now? What does that mean for the upcoming week? I don't know! But if you asked me? Bearish! Really, I mean really really, bearish if you ask me. Only when the annual high of 2023 is recaptured by the bulls - i.e. traders and/or investors who send price action back above 107.348 points again - will the current trend reversal formation dissolve. So I consider the probability of further low price action in the DXY to be greater as long as we don't experience more than 107.348 points. How deep? For the first time to the level of election day when Trump won re-election on November 6th, 2025 - even around 105.441 points.With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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