Another 48h - Bears Control DXY Between Last 3 Yearly Highs

16
2025/02/05
Another 48h - Bears Control DXY Between Last 3 Yearly Highs
“ambivalent about trump tariffs, it will be a groundbreaking week!
are the bears taking over the terrain? below highs of 2023, 2024 & 2025?”



Our German DAX DAX made up its initial losses by the afternoon this Wednesday, February 5th, 2025. However, given the customs conflict between the USA, it was not enough to do more than this renewed attempt at stabilization. However, the DAX DAX continues to move at a high level, close to its record high. In the afternoon, our leading German index was just up at 21,507.52 points. The MDax MDAX of medium-sized companies also turned positive and gained +0.32% to 26,506.22 points. The Eurozone leading index EuroStoxx 50 STOXX50 fell by +0.16%. And business on the European stock exchanges continued to be subdued today. Traders and/or investors still appear to be cautious and are waiting for further actions from the incumbent US government with regard to future US foreign trade policy. And so it is not surprising that the Swiss SMI SMI , on the other hand, also rose by +0.16% to 12,497.87 points. While the British FTSE 100 UK100, on the other hand, appeared little changed.


  • Will the annual high of 2023 at 107.348 hold?

The answer to this question last week was yes. Because traders and/or investors sent the DXY to a low of 107.500 points over the course of the last week on Thursday, January 30, 2025. Even above 107.348 points - which was the annual high of 2023, from 2023/10/03. From this point of view we may be experiencing a trend reversal this week.

“I had a very interesting experience with P.C.Chatterjee, one of my investment advisors. His concept was to look at technology companies as asset-rich companies, where the customer was treated as an asset. If a company had a strong customer base, it could be worth a lot even though it had a lousy management and a lack of products. And he felt that with a little push, these values could be unlocked. It proved to be a valid concept.”
George Soros


  • Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week??

The uptrend is important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). Because as long as traders and/or investors are trading and/or investing in the DXY above this extended trendline of 108.480 points and/or 108.640 points, we can argue that the price action will continue to trend bullish.


110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/02 - High Of This Week
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.528 : 2025/02/05 - last price action
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.969 : 2025/01/27 - Low Of Last Week
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
While CNN wonders: "How bad is the trade war with China going to get?" The DXY currently seems to be ending its bullish run! Or? Because the bears don't just seem to control the terrain between the last 3 year highs in 2025, 2024, and/or even 2023? No! If traders and/or investors send the DXY even further downwards - and I am now assuming this will happen - then we will have a medium-term trend reversal formation in the DXY price action. And we have to reanalyze and evaluate the previous price action again - perhaps maybe pivot to a medium-term bearish outlook with regard to the DXY ? I don't know! Let's just wait and see! What's happening today? The DXY is currently being moved by traders and/or investors at 107.528 points. For the reasons just stated, the 107.348 points are crucial - for both bulls and/or bears. Because a price action below this would confirm a medium-term trend reversal formation. Which should fundamentally give the price action on WallStreet some stability DJIA SP500 NDX regardless of Trump's customs policies. Because "Beijing hit back with its own tariffs and export restrictions after being subjected to levies by President Trump. Trade experts said China appeared to aim for minimal short-term harm while showing the range of its possible responses.", as the New York Times published yesterday in an article worth reading.


With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron



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