2024/10/30
Another 48h - No Criticism At DXY
“no criticism, just for the sake of criticism, about dxy!
but today the 4th false breakout? beginning of the end?”
Our Green Economics Minister Habeck and Social Democratic Chancellor Scholz still seem to believe in the Green economic miracle - and will certainly have been pleased today that the German economy grew by a whopping 0.2% in the third quarter. But that's misleading: this growth, which is actually not worth mentioning, only came about because the previous quarter was revised downwards by -0.2%. If you like, in fact: German economic growth is stagnating, with zero growth. And that is not a coincidence, but the result of an economic policy pushed forward by our German Green Economics Minister Habeck and tolerated by our German Social Democratic Chancellor Scholz, which believes that the state knows better than the economy. Which can also be transferred to the Biden and Harris economic policies of the last few years - more or less to almost the entire so-called West. With his green economic policy, after the coronavirus outbreak. What inflation had caused us! And why more and more so-called right-wing populists are intervening in political events. Regardless, there were particularly strong ADP labor market data in the USA today. And us gdp growth for the third quarter was higher than us inflation again for the first time. So that we are, more or less, in the process of growing out of stagflation in the USA for the first time. The tendency of a US soft landing seems to be confirmed. But the
DXY reacted negatively today - and the US dollar fell in price today, on Wednesday. Now Wall Street is waiting for the numbers from 
MSFT and 
META - which I haven't read yet, let alone analyzed and evaluated. There is a lot of AI euphoria at stake! After 
GOOGL presented good numbers yesterday.Anyway, in the past calendar week, investors and traders handled the
DXY above our w formation for the first time again (during Wednesday's trading session as when Wall Street was open). Only within a few hours? But at least! Our learning-educated headline was: "One swallow doesn't make a summer!" And so during the following Thursday we had a very strong bearish selling day. In order to regain almost half of Thursday's loss on Friday. I don't want to scare you - but greed is back in the DXY . Which is proven by the fact that in the last 20 trading days, after the low, only 3 trading days ended in bearish red. The DXY has risen in 17 out of 20 trading days since the annual rise on Friday, September 27, 2024 - until last weekend.104.447 points - (2024/08/01) - High W-Formation
104.097 points - (2024/10/30) - last price action
103.820 points - (2017/01/03) - Historical Mid Term High
103.104 points - (2024/10/10) - High While Last Inflation Data
These are the most important price actions for this calendar week!
This week we had two red dojis at the start of the week and/or today on wednesday a first relativ big red candlestick trading day in the
DXY . And that more or less round about the highs of even our w trend reversal formation. Traders and/or investors seem to be wondering whether the fundamental US economic data is strong enough to trade and/or invest the DXY above our w trend reversal formation from now on. The bulls also tried to drive the DXY higher today, but it didn't work today either - less as in the last days - and this is now for the fourth time (Wednesday, Saturday, yesterday, and/or even today).“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
George Soros
- Will We Handle (104.477 points) A Bullish Breakout?
- Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Support?
- Does The 2017 High (103.820 points) Serve As Resistance?
- Will DXY Fall Back (103.104 points) based on the US economic data?
These 4 questions need to be answered - during this calendar week.
So that we can learn something new with the help of price action; so that we remember that we already knew something old and now know it confirmed. Because a breakout price action above 104.477 points should confirm the medium-term trend reversal formation, i.e. w formation. While a fall below 103.104 points could possibly make the bear's mouth water again due to disappointing and/or negative US economic data. This is the educational learning stuff for this calendar week!
In the USA, the economy grew by +2.8% in the third quarter of 2024 - preliminary figures. Our German Green Economics Minister Habeck and Social Democratic Chancellor Scholz will probably no longer achieve this with their green economic miracle. The US stock markets currently seem to be running out of steam. Either they are afraid of their own courage? Don't they believe in US growth out of the due to self-inflicted US stagflation? Or are the stockmarkets waiting for the US election? And then cash in? I don't know it! However, I know that the relatively expensive capital market interest rates, compared to the current interest rate and/or compared to the expected interest rate cuts for 2025, definitely represent a brake on both
DXY and WallStreet - even 
DJIA & 
SP500 and/or 
NDX . Because there are fixed-interest securities at an above-average interest rate - and with almost no risk of default. Therefore, I hereby claim: "capital market interest rates, the US yield cruve, i.e. US10Y are the brake on the stock market. And or also for the DXY .However, today's trading day in the
DXY was again a so-called failed bullish false breakout attempt, from our w trend reversal formation, since the beginning of August 2024. 104.570 points from Wednesday last week - 104.573 points from Sunday - 104.636 points from yesterday - and/or also 104.436 points today - were the highest prices during the last trading sessions. The first three were always just above the high of 104.447 points of our w trend reversal formation. But today the bulls didn't have enough power - traded and/or invested the DXY only until 104.436 points. That's why, from this POV (point of view) I would not be surprised, if we fall back to 103.820 points, to the historical mid-term high, from 2017/01/03. And/or 103.104 points - to the high while last Inflation data (2024/10/10). Which would then undoubtedly worsen the fundamental bullish picture. We are therefore waiting for the US economic data: on Thursday: PCE Price Index YoY. And on Friday: US unemployment rate. Therefore, there is still enough new and economic information to learn something new - to have what we already knew confirmed. By analyzing and evaluating their impact on the price action of the DXY .For this week, I have also included 2 technical indicators, also due to the numerous US economic data. In order to be able to measure the responsive price action on both the price axis (using the roc) and the time axis (using the aroon). So we can understand, this is a demanding task that doesn't work every day, let alone always. But looking back, at least to date, we have received good indications twice. First of all, a sales estimate, as shown in the chart. And/Or also a purchase indication - which even holds up to this day. Therefore, pay attention to the US economic data this calendar week - and much more on the reaction of the market, the majority of traders and investors on the
DXY . With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.