2025/02/19 - 8th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Bulls Unexpectedly Struck Back Today In DXY
“today's price action is again above the annual high for 2023!
how long does this stay? now bullish again? remain bearish?”
The US stock market remained at record highs today, Wednesday, February 19, 2025. However, there were no major movements in the indices. It almost seems as if Trump's actionism is turning into the opposite - at least as far as the price action is currently concerned on Wall Street! Sure - next week things could look different again - and we're only a month into his second term in office! Therefore - patience! It's running. Still, I think sometimes the bulls have a hard time? And/Or but did most of them get on board beforehand? And now it seems like the bulls don't know what to do next? Be that as it may, the broad-based S&P 500
SP500 extended its record series and closed with a gain of +0.24% to 6,144.15 points. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq 100 
NDX , which is full of technology stocks, also reached a high - at the end of trading it was +0.05% higher at 22,175.60 points. The leading index Dow Jones Industrial 
DJIA remained without a record, leaving trading with an increase of +0.16% to 44,627.59 points. Why the long YM1! 4XSetUp remains - for the reasons I just tried to explain.The minutes of the last US Federal Reserve meeting at the end of January 2025 had a surprise impact on the US stock market today. The Nasdaq 100 came intraday down, while the Dow Jones Industrial came from intraday lows into green into the closing bell. The interest rate fantasy seems to be out - as I've been trying to argue for days and weeks. That's why the focus is on the yield curve and/or individual values - cash flow machines, ideally those that also pay a dividend. And who are immune to US tariff policy because it does not directly affect their business model. "The Fed members have expressed that if the US labor market continues to be near full employment, they would like to see further progress in reducing inflation before further interest rate adjustments are made," my friend cfd online broker analyst told me. Sure - from the Fed's perspective we are in the best of all worlds. Trump said goodbye to the New Green Deal, the previous Biden/Harris government - thus solving the cause of the past US stagflation. And now it's up to his US budget policy and or even US customs policy when it comes to the budget gap. And/Or also the foreign trade balance. That is not the FED's area of responsibility - fiscal policy and/or economic policy. It is precisely the responsibility of Trump and/or his US Republicans. But as i wrote since days and/or weeks, if the US tariffs get into account since next month March 2025 and the US consumer dont get a Made In USA alternative for the goods, which will even be +...% more expensive? This could be the reason for the next US inflation wave!
- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week Once Again?
That was the question of the last 7th calendar week. To which we have to answer clearly with NO. The uptrend was important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). And as important, as long as traders and/or investors were trading and/or investing the
DXY above this extended trendline of more or less 108 points last week - but on last Wednesday, the 21th 2025 the last time. The importance of the upward trend that has expired becomes even more important as the annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 have also been broken downwards. So we learned that the bears have temporarily taken over the territory for both reasons.“The generally accepted theory is that financial markets tend towards equilibrium, and on the whole, discount the future correctly. I operate using a different theory, according to which financial markets cannot possibly discount the future correctly because they do not merely discount the future; they help to shape it. Financial markets are inherently unstable; stability can be maintained only if it is made an objective of public policy. Moreover, instability is cumulative.”
George Soros
- Will The Bulls Come Back Above 107.348 Points, The Annual High Of 2023?
That is the question of this 8th calendar week. Because a price action below would and will also retrospectively confirm the trend reversal formation of the price action development above the annual high of 2023, namely the 107.348 points.
110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday High
108.337 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday Low
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.381 : 2025/02/19 - Today's Intraday High
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
107.192 : 2025/02/19 - last price action
106.566 : 2025/02/14 - Last Week Low
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
Yesterday I wrote and/or truly believed in it, “Hope dies last - in this case the belief that the bulls will climb back to the annual high of 2023 at 107,348 points. I don't believe in it anymore today, after the last calendar week. But let's wait and see. Even the low from last Friday, February 14th, 2025 at 106,566 points has held so far. But today the market, more precisely the foreign exchange market, i.e. the traders and/or investors, taught me otherwise. If only for one trading hour - namely at lunchtime NY time. As traders and/or investors send the price action of the
DXY up to today's intraday high at 107.381 points. What I didn't expect and/or also couldn't figure out from the price action so far. However - let's wait and see! Tomorrow - the rest of the week? Because the overall picture still looks bearish - even if, for example, the yellow-blue SMA cross, which I set to 1 day and/or 1 week, has currently switched. Nevertheless, we say here in my home country and also my native Germany: "One swallow doesn't make a summer!" - which means something like, let's wait and see whether what we saw, what we experienced is confirmed again, is confirmed again, is confirmed again, etc. etc. etc. ...With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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