2025/02/18 - 8th Calendar Week 2025
Another 48h - Slightly Bullish Counterattack At Weekstart In DXY
“the bearish trend wave since the start of february is still intact!
how deep can it go? when will the bullish turning point come?”
After the holiday-related break at the start of the week, the New York stock exchanges lacked fresh momentum for a long time on Tuesday, February 18, 2025. At the end of trading, the indices made further progress - and the broad-based S&P 500
SP500 closed with a gain of +0.24%, virtually at a record high of 6,129.58 points. The Nasdaq 100 
NDX , which is full of technology stocks, had already reached a record high right at the start of the stock exchange and came close again at the close of the market with plus +0.23% to 22,164.61 points. While the leading index Dow Jones Industrial 
DJIA managed to stay positive in the end and closed today at +0.02% higher at 44,556.34 points.The high valuations on the US stock market seem to be spoiling the appetite of traders and/or investors to continue buying bullishly. While hopes for a peace solution for Ukraine seem to be supporting the stock markets. At a first meeting of US and Russian foreign ministers in Saudi Arabia after a break of several years, both sides agreed to talks about an end to the Ukraine war. During "Zelenskyy urges 'fair' talks after US-Russia meet", as Al Jazeera reported in their day's live update. However, meanwhile Donald Trump's push for European allies to spend up to 5% of GDP on defense is adding to the positive sentiment in the sector - which is why traders and/or investors are expecting larger, longer-term contracts for European defense companies as governments look to ramp up arms production and modernize their armed forces. Countries that have already committed to increasing their defense budgets include Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The United States was preparing for direct talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia this week, but European officials have not been invited to attend. The exclusion has raised concerns in Brussels and major European capitals about their diminishing role in shaping the outcome of the war. Which is why European leaders were to meet in Paris for an emergency summit yesterday to discuss their reaction to what they perceive as the exclusion of Europe from negotiations over the future of Ukraine. While British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stressed the need for Europe to demonstrate its seriousness about defense in an article published in the Telegraph on Sunday. "Keir Starmer has confirmed for the first time that he is ready and willing to deploy peacekeeping British troops in Ukraine if a deal to end Russia’s war is reached."
- Will The First Uptrend Of 2025 Be Held This Week Once Again?
That was the question of the last 7th calendar week. To which we have to answer clearly with NO. The uptrend was important because it started in the last week of the past 2024 - at 107.587 points, from 2024/12/20 (last low 2024) and/or 107.739 points, from 2024/12/30 (2nd last low 2024). And as important, as long as traders and/or investors were trading and/or investing the
DXY above this extended trendline of more or less 108 points last week - but on last Wednesday, the 21th 2025 the last time. The importance of the upward trend that has expired becomes even more important as the annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 have also been broken downwards. So we learned that the bears have temporarily taken over the territory for both reasons.“I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis.”
George Soros
- Will The Bulls Come Back Above 107.348 Points, The Annual High Of 2023?
That is the question of this 8th calendar week. Because a price action below would and will also retrospectively confirm the trend reversal formation of the price action development above the annual high of 2023, namely the 107.348 points.
110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Annual High 2025
109.881 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday High
108.337 : 2025/02/03 - Intraday Low
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
106.774 : 2025/02/18 - last price action
106.566 : 2025/02/14 - Last Week Low
105.192 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Election Night
Hope dies last - in this case the belief that the bulls will climb back to the annual high of 2023 at 107,348 points. I don't believe in it anymore today, after the last calendar week. But let's wait and see. Even the low from last Friday, February 14th, 2025 at 106,566 points has held so far. And not just yesterday - during a weak trading day, Presidents Day - when WallStreet was closed. But also this Tuesday. If you will, a weak, delicate bullish counterattack at the beginning of this week! How far? I don't know that! But I know - more from me tomorrow.
With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron
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