Long

Ethereum | ETH & ETF 🌔

Updated

99 days are left until the Ethereum spot ETF Approval and so many good news on the way 🚀
lets see why we are bullish on Eth

• EIP4844 on March 13th
• Many Asset Managers chasing ETH Yield
• ETF Inflow > GBTC sell off
• Multiple L2's Launching

📅Feb & March

The Ethereum Dencun upgrade will take place on March 13th and looking back at last year's Shanghai Upgrade, +50% from about a month before to the day which might behave in a similar way

📅March & April

Bitcoin halving is scheduled for April 17 and Historically Bitcoin has averaged a +70% increase from about 50 days before to the day of the halving.The halving event will indirectly help sustain the rally

📅May & Moon

Earliest decision for the 7 spot ETFs is set for May 23 While the scenario won't play out the same, the market knows that Spot BTC ETF saw jump +80% in the 3 months pre launch.
Also a rally without any market corrections is not realistic

There were at least 3 dips before ETF Approval:
- Fake Cointelegraph ETF News (where is that Intern? probably he is the CEO now!)
- Matrixport ETF Rejection Scenario
- SEC Hacked

Even after ETF approval, a Sell off event occurred.
Similarly, as the ETF deadline nears, expect FUDs like:
- Celsius Sell-off
- SEC "Security token"
- Coinbase·SEC Lawsuit
- Grayscale's OTC:ETHE

These FUDs will also likely provide 2-4 juicy dips to buy. Why Juciy?
Because Onchain signals often lead market sentiment so lets check exchanges eth

also Ethereum balance on Exchanges is getting very low
- The Merge burning & EIP1559
- Liquid Staking & Restaking
- Other important Ethereum projects like Starknet, LayerZero,are expected to launch in H1 2024

🇼allstreet chasing Yield

ARK/21Shares' case may set a precedent, indicating other institutions could also include staking in their ETF proposals plus Franklin has expressed interest in staking the held by their proposed fund.

Conclusion 🐂

ETH has cleared the hurdles from past market downturns (FTX, Celsius, GBTC) and is now entering a new phase driven by ETF demand.As the ETF decision nears, I think we could witness a strategic rotation of capital from BTC to ETH in the upcoming weeks so Im All In

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Eth/Btc

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Justin Sun address purchased 54,721 ETH through Binance and DEX in the past 32 hours, worth approximately $154.4 million. The wallet withdrew 500 million USDT from HTX on February 18 and deposited 50 million USDT into Binance today

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Grayscale CEO says a spot Ethereum ETF is "a matter of when, not a matter of if."

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Ethereum Foundation: The Dencun network upgrade has successfully activated on all testnets. It is now set for deployment on the Ethereum mainnet and will activate on the network at epoch 269568, occuring on March 13, 2024 at 13:55 UTC. Most notably the introduction of ephemeral data blobs with EIP-4844, also known as "protodanksharding", which will help reduce L2 transaction fees.

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eth is not even started yet

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Ethereum's funding rates have seen a significant uptick, reaching levels reminiscent of late 2020 when Ethereum was poised for a robust bullish rally toward its all-time high

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Vitalik: If quantum computers are available, and bad actors are able to use them to steal users’ funds. The blockchain would have to hard fork and users would have to download new wallet software, but few users would lose their funds. The infrastructure to implement a hard fork like this could in principle start to be built tomorrow, making the Ethereum ecosystem maximally ready in case a quantum emergency does actually come to pass

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we just hit the 4k

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a decrease in the exchange reserves means there isn’t much selling pressure in the Ethereum market. If this steep downtrend continues, the price could go up even further

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> Sell all of our ETH.
> Tell Gary to drop the ETF FUD.
> Tell Gary to drop the security FUD.
> Hit em with the headlines.
> The plebs will panic sell.
> We buy up ALL the coins.
> Force the SEC to lose every case.
> Approve the ETF.

Thanks for playing!

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Brian Quintenz: “When the SEC allowed ETH Futures ETFs to trade on its regulated security exchanges, it explicitly acknowledged the status of the underlying, ETH, as being a non-security and outside of its jurisdiction”.

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that even if the U.S. SEC designates Ethereum as a security, it is still possible to launch an Ethereum ETF, and it will continue to try to launch an Ethereum spot ETF. Currently, eight potential issuers, including BlackRock, have submitted Ethereum spot ETF applications to the SEC

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China Asset Management, Bosera Capital, HashKey Capital Limited, etc. announced that their applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, allowing investors to directly use Bitcoin and Ethereum to subscribe for corresponding ETF shares

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Franklin Templeton's application for the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF "FRANKLIN ETHEREUM TR ETHEREUM ETF" has been listed on the DTCC website, and the Create/Redeem column shows Y. DTCC emphasized that this is a standard practice to prepare for the launch of new ETFs to the market and does not represent the result of the approval process

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- First round of Spot ETH ETF deadlines approaching this week
23-May: VanEck
24-May: Ark Invest/21Shares
- ETHBTC reaching Feb 2021 levels last Friday coupled with the lacklustre interest in the options market, hints that the market is anticipating a rejection and a non-event.
- ETH has successfully defended the 2900 levels multiple times this year and has formed a strong support
- Given ETH's duality of a store of value and a layer 1 Blockchain network. An approval would likely result in ETH outperforming the price action of BTC upon it's approval.
- Given the resounding lack of interest in the market, the risk is to the topside with a surprise approval catching everyone off guard, triggering a short squeeze taking us easily back to recent highs

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Ethereum whales bought over 110,000 ETH in the past 24 hours, worth around $341 million.

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Wen lambo?

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affected by the news that the SPOT ETH ETF suddenly may pass, on May 20 (UTC), ETH rose by more than $590 in a single day, and its market value increased by more than $70 billion, setting its largest single-day increase in market value in history

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Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra estimate that the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF will send the price of Ethereum surging 75% to $6,600. They noted that the SEC's approval of a similar Bitcoin product in January spurred a 75% rise in Bitcoin prices in the following weeks, and expected similar changes in ETH's price action.

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- ETH 24-May contracts at 105 vols signal anticipation for a big move by the application deadline.
- ETH Perp funding went from 50% to flat in 12 hours, with Jun forwards still yielding 15%, possibly reflecting diminished short-term speculation but sustained medium-term bullishness.
- ETH 24 and 31 May risk reversals at -7 suggest lingering market fear of short-term downside volatility, potentially prompting tactical hedging of long ETH positions.
- Spot BTC ETF sees a 7-day inflow streak totalling nearly 1.5bn.
- Growing narrative around crypto in US elections gains traction, especially following SEC's recent shift in their stance.

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US lawmakers urge SEC to approve spot Ethereum ETFs

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Yesterday's headline: the Spot Ethereum ETF got approved!
But why isn't ETH mooning already?

In order for the ETFs to launch, the SEC must approve both:

- the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes)
- and the S-1s (registration statements)

Yesterday, only the 19b-4s got the nod, not the S-1s.
However, there's a 10-day window for a commissioner to step in and challenge it

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the game is on

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Ether price nears $4,000 as market awaits Ethereum ETFs going live

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BlackRock filed an amended S-1 registration statement for SPOT ETH ETF, disclosing information about seed capital investors. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expects other companies to file similar documents soon, and trading could begin around the end of June or July 4.

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Outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) could dampen the Spot Ethereum ETF approval party but create significant opportunities for traders.

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Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. SEC, said that the next step in the approval of the ETH ETF will take some time, which may indicate that the S-1 approval process may be slow. Gary also made remarks that cryptocurrency exchanges are doing things that the law will never allow the New York Stock Exchange or traditional exchanges to do.

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The gas price on the Ethereum network was down to 5 gwei this morning

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Ethereum ETF issuers are still waiting on the SEC to provide comments on their S-1 filings after they submitted first drafts on May 31. They expect the S-1 forms to go through at least two more rounds of draft filings before they are ready.

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ETH jumped slightly and again broke $3,500 in the minutes after Consensys reported the SEC had dropped its investigation into Ethereum.

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ETH vs BTC !

- Mt Gox has no
- The Germans aren't selling
- Ethereum doesn't have constant miner sell pressure to pay for expenses
- ETF ALSO coming to
- Supply shock bigger on ETH vs BTC

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the U.S. SEC has returned the S-1 form to potential Ethereum spot ETF issuers with only a few comments. The issuer has been asked to process these comments and resubmit by July 8. This means that at least one more round of filings will be required before the ETF finally starts trading.

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We had studied the wallet address of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, the total value of ETH currently held has exceeded $800 million, most of which came from the ETH allocation he received during the launch of Ethereum, about 246,730 ETH. He also invested in many projects such as StarkNet.

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VanEck and Grayscale officially file S-1 for their Spot Ethereum ETFs

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Steve Wozniak, Apple founder and one of the widely followed technology stalwarts, said, “Ethereum interests me because it can do things and because it's a platform.”

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The trend shows that gas fees are at their lowest since May 2024, indicating a quieter Ethereum network activity. It can be observed that when gas fees increase, Ethereum prices tend to rise as well

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Spot ETH ETF issuers expect to get final approval from the SEC this week.

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SEC tells spot Ethereum ETF issuers that they can start trading on July 23. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said that the SEC requires them to submit the final S-1 form this Wednesday and apply for effectiveness after the close of next Monday so that they can start on Tuesday (July 23).

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five Ethereum spot ETFs from VanEck, Invesco, Fidelity, 21Shares, and Franklin Templeton will begin trading on July 23 (next Tuesday)

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Grayscale deposits 292,000 ETH worth over $1 billion on Coinbase Prime

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Spot ETH ETF's reach 50% of BTC's ETF volume, in first 90 minutes of trading

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Exactly one year ago, crypto was in the depths of the bear market
ETH was at ~1.8k

365 days later, we can say: “Ethereum ETFs have surpassed in trading volume on its first day of trading” Do not underestimate how far we’ve come

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On July 26, the total net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs was $163 million. Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF ETHE had a single-day outflow of $356 million, Grayscale mini ETF ETH had an inflow of $44.9426 million, and BlackRock ETF ETHA had an inflow of $87.2178 million

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Ethereum spot ETF had a total net outflow of $98.2856 million on July 29, and continued to have net outflows for 4 consecutive days. Grayscale ETF ETHE had a single-day outflow of $210 million, Grayscale mini ETF ETH had a inflow of $4.8967 million, BlackRock ETF ETHA had a inflow of $58.1696 million, and Fidelity ETF FETH had a inflow of $24.8242 million.

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Jump Trading transferred the 11,500 ETH (worth $29 million) applied for redemption on August 4 to the CEXs address, and transferred 16,210 wstETH (worth $47.92 million) to continue applying for redemption. There are still 21,394 wstETH (worth $63.33 million) waiting to be redeemed.

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Ethereum median gas price hits 5-year low

The median price to send an Ethereum transaction hit 1.9 gwei on the weekend, with low-priority transactions priced even lower.

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Vitalik's wallet: 0xfE…03B2 has been selling ETH since receiving 3,800 ETH (about 9.99m) from Vitalik's related wallets on August 9 and 30. Currently, 760 ETH has been sold for 1.835 million USDC, with an average price of about $2,414. The most recent sale occurred on September 8 at 18:07 UTC+8. Earlier, Vitalik stated that he had not "sold" ETH for personal benefit since 2018, and it was almost always donated to a charity or non-profit organization or other project, and then the recipient sold it because they needed to pay fees.

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Options market saw a sudden revival of ETH interest. With over 20k contracts being bought targeting 3k levels by 27-Dec. Despite some short term uncertainty, and potential drawdowns. We still favour locking in yields ahead of the rates cut and positioning for bullish scenarios

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the whale address 0x682 deposited 15,000 ETH (about $38.4 million) to Kraken today. On July 25, it sold 10,000 ETH (about $34.2 million). On August 20, it sold 15,000 ETH (about $39.7 million). Currently, this whale still holds 26,639 ETH (about $69.7 million).

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The seven-day moving average of Ethereum transaction fees reached $3.52, a surge of 314% from $0.85 on September 1. On September 21, the daily burning of ETH reached 1,360, a surge of 1,600% from 80.27 on September 1. However, the number of active accounts on the Ethereum network fell to the lowest point of the year, about 385,000.

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Vitalik proposed some concepts of alignment for the Ethereum ecosystem:
- Open source
- Open standards
- Decentralization and security
- Toward Ethereum and Toward the broader world
- My ideal goal here is that we see more entities like L2beat emerging to track how well individual projects are meeting the above criteria.

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BlackRock said that the situation that the trading volume and capital inflow of Ethereum ETF are much lower than that of Bitcoin ETF will not change soon because Ethereum's investment narrative is not easy to digest for many investors and needs to be committed to educating customers.

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The Ethereum ETF is showing signs of weak demand, with outflows observed, while the Bitcoin ETF has experienced significant inflows

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the role of Ethereum as a blockchain can grow dramatically

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ethbtc important moment for eth price

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Ethereum's market cap of 301B is larger than Goldman Sachs and Charles Schwab combined

Trade closed: target reached

the Game is 0N
be ready for new analysis

moonypto

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