FTT/USDT Secondary trend. Wedge. Phase 3. 05 2024
Updated
Logarithm. Time frame 3 days
Secondary trend. A descending wedge is being formed. Its breakthrough - reversal and price growth. Maybe another decline, take it into account in risk management. Globally, and perhaps medium urgently now acceptable prices for a position set, at least the first part of it. Preferably, on the breakout of the reversal level. Stops are very short now.
Linear, without slippage of the wedge formation boundary.
Secondary trend. A descending wedge is being formed. Its breakthrough - reversal and price growth. Maybe another decline, take it into account in risk management. Globally, and perhaps medium urgently now acceptable prices for a position set, at least the first part of it. Preferably, on the breakout of the reversal level. Stops are very short now.
Linear, without slippage of the wedge formation boundary.
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There may be another decline, of the market as a whole, a wrap as a projection of the big one (further formation of a wedge), take this into account in your risk management. Each decline is -10% smaller (the third is usually the last in such global formations) unless a reversal occurs beforehand. A wedge breakout is not a reversal (although it is a trigger), it is important to consolidate, sometimes it can be false and then decline. Another option after the breakout is to hold the sideways range, after the pullback.🎲 Remember, this asset Pump/Dump is highly volatile because of the news agenda and the story that can be played on positive/negative expectations. Which gives a good profit. Remembered on the binance exchange — the chart is truncated and “glued” (missing almost 1 year of trading). In the end, most likely, will make a disadvantageous swap for the majority or some — some trick that will be disadvantageous to the majority (however, all as always).
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RISK MANAGEMENT tactics of a trader at DEVELOPMENT ZONES.1) Working from the average price/sale. The most effective and risk-free strategy, provided you buy/sell in acceptable zones. That is, a person should be with logical thinking and experience as a trader, not a hamster. No emotional component. This is the strategy of large market participants.
Global, and perhaps medium urgent, are now acceptable prices for a position set, at least the first part of it. If you are working a classic strategy from the average buy/sell price in trends, there is position trading.
2) Another option with stop loss classical logic. That strategy, thanks to which there is always an opportunity to collect liquidity from zombie hamsters. That is, a partial entry (it is always necessary) into long with placing a protective sell order (Loss Limitation) under the local support. Because of the market situation, stop losses are very short on most assets now. Take, on the contrary, large, provided that there will be a breakout (chances are not much).
Remember, the price on many assets is almost at historical lows. Therefore, this strategy is questionable on such assets. Although locally it can give an advantage, provided that you do not oversleep the reversal after a while waiting for the minimum prices. Since there is another logical decline to “get it”, i.e. capitulation (optional).
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If there is no reversal, then your short stop is knocked out:a) you can then go short locally.
b) or use the money from the knocked-out stop to place regular limit buy orders (preferably in a grid).
As a rule, people are afraid to buy if there is a significant decline, even if they had previously planned.
Another mistake is when buying on a significant decline in the very minimum values of the trend, placing stop losses that are meaningless from the standpoint of logic “as the book teaches.” As a result, automatic sales (liquidity collection) occur at the next local mini-takeout below the level that is the very minimum, minimum, or so. If there is another decline, then when entering a trade, stop-loss is already the lot of a “frightened hamster”. It's better to leave 10-30% $ for "unforeseen reduction".
3) stop loss to buy in case of a breakthrough of the reversal level, or outside the downtrend of the secondary trend. That is, the resistance of a figure or an important level for a trend.
Very rarely you can get caught in a false breakout if they “take out a short stop loss. But, still, in order not to fall for manipulation, this should be part of the amount allocated for the coin for work. Often, with such visible manipulations (Pin Bar) appears good entry point for shorting.
If there is no breakthrough and there is a decline, cancel the order. This is important, otherwise after a decline, when retesting this resistance zone, buy automatically at local highs, already during the return.
Place a stop loss order to buy after the decline, but not too close, so as not to buy too early. It is advisable to use several stops in different local zones + purchase limits. But, this is already tuning and the logic of your experience and intelligence.
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4) Entry on a breakthrough of the resistance of a figure or a key level (beyond the logic of false takeaways, if this trend continues). Important only for large buyer volumes. Otherwise, there is a high probability of a false breakout.If this happens, then set stop loss to limit the loss for the body of the breakout candle, or for local support (this is not necessary and depends on your work tactics).
As a rule, if the breakdown is true, stops are not placed beyond the candle, at least this is a rare occurrence. This is inherent in low-liquidity stocks or cryptocurrencies, in which you can do anything with the price. In liquid markets, with increasing demand and limited supply at such moments, this is a very expensive pleasure for the market maker (they will buy back spoofing). It is advisable to divide the entry position into 2-3 parts in advance. Then you can gain on the pullback if the price does not “fly away” much.
5) Entry on a pullback after a breakout. The most conservative and simple way to work. Effective. For most market participants, it is not acceptable due to psychology:
a) fear of not being on time.
b) a feeling of lost profit, if after a breakout there is no rollback, and the price “flies away”.
6) Working short. Stop loss is a must. As a rule, for a resistance level, for a pin bar or other chart logic, upon breaking through which a price reduction becomes impossible. Above I wrote about options where shorting is locally relevant, subject to risk management, that is, limiting losses stop Loss. Locally the trend is bearish, the secondary trend is bullish. That is, by working short locally, you are working against the trend. Therefore, don't play bear.
To avoid getting caught in the “cut” of the zone (that is, collecting liquidity for a long position, setting up a position), place a stop loss protective order when working short, above the local resistance level. Or, more correctly, where, once this zone is reached and consolidated, reduction is no longer possible.
Hedge short. You can also use short positions to hedge altcoins if you have them, that is, to cover the loss when alts decline using profits from shorting.
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PS. Which strategy is the most effective? Everything that is effective in skillful hands and ineffective in incompetent hands, everything is as always, everywhere in any activity.As a rule, efficiency increases significantly when using several options simultaneously, depending on the market situation. Some strategies for working around reversal zones are more effective when there is bullish dominance, some when there is bearish dominance.
A universal strategy for efficiency in bull and bear markets is to work from the average price with pre-allocated capital (this is key, that is, the strategy implies having a plan and the basis for its money management). The essence is simple, but complex (greed, stupidity, manipulative suggestibility of news nonsense) at the same time for the majority of the same simplicity. Buying from the average price in #accumulation and selling from the average price in distribution.
This not only applies to the global cycle, locally the work is similarly effective. Especially if orders are added to protect profits (sell stops (or OCO orders) when there is already a significant profit from the set, as well as pulling them up as prices rise).
In a bull market in the Participation Phase (price growth to highs) it is effective:
Stop loss for purchase + limit orders (grid) for purchase in the range of potential decline - rollback, and then growth - limit orders for sale. At local highs, OCO orders are added (that is, protection stops have already arrived + local sell takes). I did a lot of explanations about this strategy with many examples in a closed channel, when it is relevant to the market at the moment.
At higher values in the market distribution, stop loss orders or OCO orders are effective for protecting profits, the main thing is not to forget to move them after the final price rise.
In a bear market (Decrease phase, not accumulation) - a banal short (including commissions). Closing in parts before key support levels, where there will be consolidation and rebound. What can “eat” part of your shorts. Effective, both for positional work in a cycle (more effective), and sometimes for local work (stops are often taken out).
🕯An example of working in a cycle. As mentioned above, closing a position before key support levels, from which there will be a reaction, that is, a rebound and consolidation of 30-50%, which is formed due to positive news nonsense (hope for a reversal for the hamsters) before an inevitable further decline to the set zone.
The market decline phase and short work is the time when you can take a break from trading if you are friendly with risk management (stop). More relevant for liquid instruments. On low liquid ones, there may be pumps in the middle of the “off topic” cycle at the request of “someone there” (“give a stop”).
Periodic shorting is relevant until the zone of the next set (long sideways):
Liquid -70-90% (bitcoin 60-75%)
Medium liquid -90-95%
Low liquidity up to -96-98% or death.
During the decline phase in 2022 at the trend lows, I wrote an article (publicly published on April 17, 2023), if anyone understood the humor, congratulations. For those who haven't, you will have an attempt to test your courage partly in.... and 2026. I am sure you will forget everything out of fear, supposedly “this time everything will be different,” and since the mantra is repeated year after year by hamsters and “experts” of other people’s opinions and fears.
Although it is worth noting that working short involves holding collateral money on exchanges, for many this is categorically not suitable for money management (large capital). That is, the game is not worth the candle. Risk everything, or most of it, for the sake of, for example, +80% of the deposit, if it is understood that a little later, as always, there will be conditionally +1000%.
Then you can not do this, but wait for a % decrease in the cycle, at which time it is time to take a closer look at assets to gain in parts, or trade in horizontal accumulation channels.
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07 05 2024 It holds and locally goes conditionally against the market. Now the wedge resistance is slipping in the zone. There is a local volume set. Perhaps there will be some invented news in the near future. Maybe a breakthrough. It is this local zone that is important. Remember, at the moment, the price is at the resistance of the large wedge.
Trade closed: target reached
Trade active
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🟢 If this zone is held — breakout of the reversal level, the potential for realization of the pattern “dragon” (a kind of double bottom).
🔴🟢 If not, then a decline to the previous local lows, thus we will form a full-fledged double bottom, visible to most people.
🟣 Percentages in the first and second cases shown for local work.
✔️ Any purchase in this zone cheap/expensive (locally) is acceptable from the position as:
🟡 Medium term trend.
🔵And long-term trend.
Watch the crypto Era lash, where under the chart (market as a whole) will be invented news (one or second zone) or not, on this crypto phantom of the exchange FTX (give / do not give / give / give / do not give borrowed for the entire bull cycle your dough).
While the “investors” wait for their money, on this one: "Masha gives or rejects Ivan", you can already repeatedly recoup your “investment” (Binance exchange cut (1 year of trading in the dump/dump channel) Idea with this below (play button)
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07/12/2024 🏛📩 Probably many who have had their money stuck on the FTX exchange since 9/11 received another “nothing” email to their email yesterday or today. They are dragging their feet, the reasons are clear. Perhaps some percentage of people will simply spit on everything and will not fill out their bureaucratic wiring “led in circles.” Benders hope that many will come unstuck...
🔈🐹📈The big pump during the “tightening of the rubber” is already “giving back tomorrow.” Don't forget to sell the FTt token itself in parts during the presentation and don't be greedy.
🎲 Selling in parts from large to small because in such moments, when the state machine comes into play and super marketing “over the ears” is TA, and sound logic becomes a convention. The goals of the large wedge, which has now been reformatted into a channel, but the essence does not change, with a 99.9% probability will be achieved. But “the hamster’s goals are in question. Now there are conditional minimums (there is another zone of #surrender).
At one point, for example during a big pump-up, for some reason you will not be able to sell, but you waited even more. Greed. There was an unexpected swap, hacking, closing of the entry of the candy wrapper to the exchange (on Ripple he described the “inadequate code”, how to make large pumps so that the majority would not take advantage) some kind of force majeure that was not beneficial for you, but not for the American new benders.
💸 It is highly likely that they will give money in new printed $ at the rate of the cycle minimums. If the community opposes, then it will be 2-3 times more, but Benders are not going to give it away at the price of cryptocurrencies, because this was the idea (one of many, and not the main one) of the wiring.
When will this be said? Let me remind you:
1️⃣ Closer to the market distribution zone or in this zone itself. Pay off the debt, which will be 1/10 or 1/5 of the profit of the “borrowed” other people's money (cryptocurrency mainly).
2️⃣ If there is a lot of “helicopter money” (closer to the elections of the next contempt doll.. USA, or immediately after them, when the market is pumped up with money, and “everything is fine”) from its owners. That is, conditionally, the US government, before a significant pumping of the market, so that this money (cash in the form of usd) would be used to buy cryptocurrencies, which the Benders “borrowed” 5-10 times cheaper from you using the scam exchange method, so that they could sell you 5-10 times cheaper. 10 times more expensive. Cool isn't it?).
📅 Hold it until October. They will “allocate” 12 - 16 billion dollars to the stock exchange (a new stage in the game of speculative deception).
🟣 It is advisable not to get carried away with local trading (if you are not a trader), especially the abuse of stop loss in these zones. Otherwise, the “exchange” will constantly take your stops (low liquidity, slippage, accumulation zone), that is, collect a “position” at your expense, and then unload 5-10 times the size of the hamsters under super positive news. For example, they will actually give money in cash to debtors in October-November.
⚠️With margin, everything above the 3rd shoulder is “not survivable” at a distance, especially if we go to another zone of $0.76, and under the invented “negative news” they can make a snot (#squees) and “kill” positions even with 3rd shoulder. They will write later, the news is an excuse, as has happened more than once - “the whale leaked it.” Curb your greed. Spot, or adequate margin. The slower you go, the further you will go, and this is a speculative truth.
📊In the spot, you can now take it stupidly from the market, and leave some of the money for entry into another #surrender zone if they give it. The most important thing is to distribute the position in advance, that is, your money.
🕯If you are afraid to buy now (most people are), you can put a stop loss on a breakout buy; if there is a decline, just lower the stop. If it triggers prematurely (false breakout), then let it count as your first entry. No stop loss “as the book says” (Limitation of Losses, which is translated into normal language as “protecting losses from profits”, sorry for being straightforward, but this is a fact) after entering a position, otherwise you will be left without “pants” many times out of the blue.
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Trade closed: target reached
Trade active
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🟣 Local trend 02 08 2024 Nothing much has changed. Price is pushing up to local resistance (channel meridian) again.
👀🔴📉 Note, during the local market correction (projection of US data and stock market reaction) this cryptocurrency was held in this zone.
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05 08 2024 Trade closed: target reached
09/29/2024 Note
4 10 2024 Going, as always, even for these local movements on a small time frame manipulation in the news background good/bad (in this case give soon / do not know when) to accompany the price movement.
The main pumping of FTT and the distribution zone, in fact the HYIP itself, will be when they will actually give money (it will be essentially portioned, to stretch the time of the distribution zone). There are rumors (a special throw-in) that they will give money in November (to start giving the money that was stolen in FTX).
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10 11 2024 
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