The Day Ahead

45
Data Highlights:

China Foreign Reserves (June):
China's FX reserves data will be closely watched for signs of capital outflows or PBoC intervention, especially amid ongoing yuan stability efforts and recent volatility in global markets.

Japan Labor Cash Earnings & Economic Indices (May):
Labor cash earnings are a key wage inflation indicator. Any upside surprise could fuel speculation around BoJ normalization. The leading and coincident indices will offer insight into Japan's near-term growth trajectory, particularly in the context of subdued domestic demand.

Germany Industrial Production (May):
As a bellwether for the Eurozone, this release will help assess the strength of Germany’s industrial rebound. Weakness could reinforce concerns about stagnation in Europe’s largest economy, especially given recent soft factory orders.

Eurozone Retail Sales (May):
Consumer spending remains critical for the ECB’s policy path. This data will provide clues on household demand resilience amid still-high core inflation and restrictive policy settings.

Sweden CPI (June):
A key input for Riksbank policy. Any persistent inflationary pressure may challenge the case for further rate cuts, especially as the central bank navigates a weak krona and external pressures.

Central Bank Speakers:
ECB’s Nagel and Holzmann:
Both are considered hawkish members. Their commentary will be scrutinized for signals on the timing and pace of additional rate cuts following June’s initial move. Markets will be sensitive to any shift in tone on inflation persistence or the economic outlook.

Implications:
The day is rich in second-tier but thematically important data that could shape regional monetary policy expectations.
The euro and European rates markets may see modest volatility depending on German IP and ECB commentary.
Japanese wage data could revive BoJ tightening bets if stronger than expected.
China’s reserve position may reflect broader macro-policy adjustments ahead of key summer policy meetings.

This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.