The Day Ahead - Fed Rate Decision

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US:
March consumer credit slowed → weaker demand → supports lower rate expectations.

UK:
April construction PMI below 50 → contraction → bearish for GBP.

Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy, Euro-wide):

Factory orders, construction PMIs, retail sales weak → signs of economic slowdown → bearish for EUR.

China:
April foreign reserves slightly down → limited impact.

France (details):
Widening trade deficit, mild wage growth → mixed outlook.

Italy:
March retail sales down → weak consumer demand.

Federal Reserve (May decision):
Held rates at 5.25–5.50%.
Slowed pace of balance sheet reduction (QT).
Powell ruled out further hikes for now.
Fed remains data-dependent.

Trading Relevance:
Rates/Bonds: Bullish – lower yields likely.
USD: Slightly weaker – dovish Fed tone.
Stocks: Positive – QT slowdown supports equities.
EUR/GBP: Bearish – weak data, dovish central bank expectations.

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