The market expectations for the June CPI data are very clear: the overall CPI annual rate is expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.7%, and the core CPI year-on-year growth rate will reach 3%, higher than 2.8% in May. This expectation has been reflected in market pricing in advance.
The linkage logic between CPI data and gold has always revolved around the Fed's policy expectations: if the data exceeds expectations or meets expectations, the market's expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates will be strengthened, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise in the short term, and gold will face the test of the 3340 support level, and may even fall to the 3325 mid-line target.
If the data is lower than expected: the expectation of interest rate cuts will quickly heat up, the correction of the US dollar will open up upside space for gold, and the probability of breaking through the 3377-3385 resistance range will increase significantly. The gold price is expected to break through 3375 and attack the 3400 integer mark.
It is particularly important to note that the performance of the core CPI may be more critical than the overall data. If the core CPI continues to be higher than 3%, it means that inflation stickiness still exists, and the Fed's "hawkish" signal may be strengthened, which will have a more significant suppressive effect on gold.
XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD
The linkage logic between CPI data and gold has always revolved around the Fed's policy expectations: if the data exceeds expectations or meets expectations, the market's expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates will be strengthened, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise in the short term, and gold will face the test of the 3340 support level, and may even fall to the 3325 mid-line target.
If the data is lower than expected: the expectation of interest rate cuts will quickly heat up, the correction of the US dollar will open up upside space for gold, and the probability of breaking through the 3377-3385 resistance range will increase significantly. The gold price is expected to break through 3375 and attack the 3400 integer mark.
It is particularly important to note that the performance of the core CPI may be more critical than the overall data. If the core CPI continues to be higher than 3%, it means that inflation stickiness still exists, and the Fed's "hawkish" signal may be strengthened, which will have a more significant suppressive effect on gold.
XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD 
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Disclaimer
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