Analysis of fundamental factors: intertwined long and short factors
1. Downward trend of US bond yields supports short-term rebound
2. The aftermath of credit rating downgrades has not yet subsided
3. Fiscal policy uncertainty is heating up
4. Tariff rhetoric disturbs the market again
Technical analysis: oversold repair and key resistance
Bollinger Band: Daily price rebounds along the lower track of the Bollinger Band at 98.66, but the middle track 100.14 and the upper track 101.62 form a strong resistance zone.
Momentum indicator: Although the MACD histogram is below the zero axis (-0.135), the DIFF and DEA lines are glued together, indicating that the downward momentum has weakened; RSI rebounded from the oversold zone to 42.49, and has not yet broken through the 50 middle axis.
Key points: Short-term support refers to the 2025 low of 97.90. If it falls below, it may drop to 97.40; the upward trend needs to break through the 21-day moving average of 100.10 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 100.80 to reverse the downward trend.
In the short term, the technical correction of the US dollar may continue, but three major factors will suppress the rebound height:
1. Narrowing of interest rate differentials: The unexpected upward trend in eurozone inflation has increased the expectations of ECB tightening, weakening the relative attractiveness of the US dollar;
2. Diversion of safe-haven demand: The escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine has driven funds to gold and Swiss francs;
3. Divergence of policy paths: If the PCE data is mild, the market may pre-price the Fed's September rate cut, resulting in a further flattening of the US Treasury yield curve.
In the medium term, if the US dollar index fails to regain 101.60 (near the 200-day moving average), the downward channel will remain intact. Traders are advised to pay close attention to the breakthrough direction of the 97.90-100.80 range and guard against the pulse fluctuations caused by Trump's tariff remarks and the fiscal bill vote. If the US dollar continues to rise, gold will fall further.
GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD
1. Downward trend of US bond yields supports short-term rebound
2. The aftermath of credit rating downgrades has not yet subsided
3. Fiscal policy uncertainty is heating up
4. Tariff rhetoric disturbs the market again
Technical analysis: oversold repair and key resistance
Bollinger Band: Daily price rebounds along the lower track of the Bollinger Band at 98.66, but the middle track 100.14 and the upper track 101.62 form a strong resistance zone.
Momentum indicator: Although the MACD histogram is below the zero axis (-0.135), the DIFF and DEA lines are glued together, indicating that the downward momentum has weakened; RSI rebounded from the oversold zone to 42.49, and has not yet broken through the 50 middle axis.
Key points: Short-term support refers to the 2025 low of 97.90. If it falls below, it may drop to 97.40; the upward trend needs to break through the 21-day moving average of 100.10 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 100.80 to reverse the downward trend.
In the short term, the technical correction of the US dollar may continue, but three major factors will suppress the rebound height:
1. Narrowing of interest rate differentials: The unexpected upward trend in eurozone inflation has increased the expectations of ECB tightening, weakening the relative attractiveness of the US dollar;
2. Diversion of safe-haven demand: The escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine has driven funds to gold and Swiss francs;
3. Divergence of policy paths: If the PCE data is mild, the market may pre-price the Fed's September rate cut, resulting in a further flattening of the US Treasury yield curve.
In the medium term, if the US dollar index fails to regain 101.60 (near the 200-day moving average), the downward channel will remain intact. Traders are advised to pay close attention to the breakthrough direction of the 97.90-100.80 range and guard against the pulse fluctuations caused by Trump's tariff remarks and the fiscal bill vote. If the US dollar continues to rise, gold will fall further.
GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD 
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Good at solving all trading problems, doubling the account in a week, and making a stable profit of 300% in a month
🚀Private VIP: t.me/HenryDovitt
👍Market exclusive signal: t.me/Henryffjyfylffc108
🚀Private VIP: t.me/HenryDovitt
👍Market exclusive signal: t.me/Henryffjyfylffc108
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.