Long

Daily 4XSetUps - new long USDJPY (with entry and/or stop)

2024/11/10
Daily 4XSetUps - new long USDJPY (with entry and/or stop)
“usdjpy 2024 around historic highs since the early 1990s!
does it continue? If so, how high? or a trend reversal?”

152.604 USDJPY : 2024/11/08 - last price action
149.775 USDJPY : 2024/08/02 - High Of Panicked Selloff
141.682 USDJPY : 2024/08/05 - Low Of Panicked Selloff
This price action is important, at least in my opinion, because share prices had already fallen on this Friday, after the publication of the monthly US labor market figures. And the sell-off accelerated on the following Monday, both in the and/or on Wall Street, in the US stock markets & & incl. . The Japanese stock market suffered its worst point loss ever on Monday - and the largest percentage decline since 1987. And fell as much as -12% on Monday, August 5, 2024, before recovering most of the losses on Tuesday. US indices also fell more than average on Monday, with the and closing around 3% lower. The British and the European leading index each fell by 2%. And volatility indicators like the were, at the time, at levels last seen during the pandemic sell-off in 2020. What happened on ths botched ays, in early August 2024? For better or worse, traders and/or investors were forced to close their derivative positions due to the US labor market data, as the exchange rate pair continued to accelerate its downward trend from more than 160 USDJPY, which had started since July 2024. And in retrospect, this above-average fast and low price action in the was more or less the main reason for these distortions - because the price action, as we now experience every day, is usually not that big. On the contrary - usually. However, the key to the market turbulence was and still is to be found in the monetary policy of the FED and the BOJ. After all, the circumstances that supported the record highs of the global markets this year 2024 were the high interest rates in the USA (5.25% - 5.50) and/or the low interest rates in Japan (0.25% after the interest rate hike last week before, back than in early August 2024). Traders and/or Investors were and are still able to borrow in yen, which even until the last week before the w trend reversal formation, we had in multi-decade lows, until the start of July 2024 incl. in higher-performing dollar assets such as technology stocks and/or U.S. bonds. This process, which is called "carry trade" plunged during these two days - Friday, the 2nd 2024 and/or Monday, the 5th 2024 - on fears about the U.S. economy. And so, at the beginning of August 2024, expectations changed that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates faster and deeper than the majority of traders and/or investors previously thought - to support the US economy. And what happens in such scenarios if you get caught on the wrong foot in terms of monetary policy? Right - the majority's expectations change! And what about the price action? Correct - that's right also. The price action also rotates! How long? How high? How low? I don`t know! But I know that, based on the latest data from the US economy, the US economy is not headed into a recession. Almost the opposite - the US economy is growing out of the self-organized US stagflation, into which it had politically organized itself with the previous Biden & Harris government of the US Democrats. Therefore, Bidenomics was nothing more than a costly green domestic adventure and/or a green militant foreign adventure by Democrats, under the guise of liberal freedom. So that we all now find ourselves at least after four years - Biden & Harris - but with less money, less purchasing power, in our private wallets. What doesn't just only happen to Americans, much more in most countries in our so-called West. And why, for better or worse, Trump was re-elected if I'm not mistaken.

“I learned that if you work hard and creatively, you can have just about anything you want, but not everything you want. Maturity is the ability to reject good alternatives in order to pursue even better ones.”
Ray Dalio

161.947 USDJPY : 2024/07/03 - Annual High 2024
152.604 USDJPY : 2024/11/08 - last price action
151.906 USDJPY : 2023/11/13 - Annual High 2023
139.574 USDJPY : 2024/07/03 - Annual Low 2024
This price action is crucial because it plays an essential role in the historical context. Because at the end of April 2024, i.e. at the beginning of May 2024, the Japanese yen briefly moved in a dramatic turn. And had a significant increase against the dollar, which was due to a suspected intervention by the Japanese authorities. In the media, many analysts, traders, investors, and/or other observers wrote that this intervention was aimed at stopping, slowing down if you will, the as it climbed, climbed, and continued to its highest level in over three decades threatened to climb. The sharp decline from 161.192 USDJPY on April 29, 2024 down to 151.858 USDJPY on May 3, 2024 was seen by most (un)involved people as a clear indication of yen buying activities. Otherwise, most people could not explain such price action in just 5 trading days - my humble self included. The further rise of the to its highest level in 34 years came despite the Bank of Japan's exit from negative interest rates, a historic step that could not stop the decline of the currency. But traders and/or investors seem to be expecting new highs again for weeks, which is what the price action in the signals, at least to me. Because of the outbreak of the w trend reversal formation. Because the bulls have magnificently regained the terrain they thought they had lost, from just under 150 USDJPY. And this despite the fact that the rumors of renewed interventions have not stopped - due to a renewed increase in price action in the .

And that's why I'm formulating a long USDJPY 4XSetUp at this point - with a target price of 180 USDJPY and/or also a stop price of 140 USDJPY. I more or less calculated the 180 USDJPY by adding the difference between the annual high in 2024 and the annual low in 2024 - from July 2024 and September 2024 - to the previous annual high in 2024. And today I assume, also based on the past just described, that the “carry trade” will continue to be a lucrative trade and/or investment. However, not with such rapid and high price action in the as before. But the direction should tend to be towards the northeast again. Which is why this long USDJPY 4XSetUp will more or less accompany us until the end of 3rd Quarter 2025, for better or worse.

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180.000 USDJPY : 2025/09/30 - target price
152.604 USDJPY : 2024/11/08 - entry
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152.604 USDJPY : 2024/11/08 - last price action
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140.000 USDJPY : 2024/11/08 - stop price
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With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron

“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.

Devise2Day

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