After a month-long consolidation, S&P (and Nasdaq) finally broke out to the upside. This was not led by macro drivers but by AI Mania and Nvda's earnings.
Both indices were sideway for the entire April where the majority of the Tech earnings were released. Only after NVDA forecast 11bil in 2Q2023 revenue and a huge backlog of AI-related products, the Tech sector responded. The market even ignores PCE inflation going back up from 4.2% to 4.4% and a 60% chance of a 25bps hike in June's FOMC.
The momentum may be good to ride for now but be nimble. Capture the upside before June's FOMC. At some point, the market will respond to the macro.
For this kind of trade, CFD is preferable as the index may not rise enough to overcome the option's premium. And we are deliberately avoiding FOMC.
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