1. Market review: news-driven, gold surged and fell
On Monday (4.7) during the US trading session, the market heard the news of "suspending tariffs for 90 days", and assets such as gold, US stocks, and crude oil rose rapidly, but it was later confirmed to be false news, and the price fell rapidly. This incident shows that the market is extremely sensitive to tariff issues, and any related news may cause violent fluctuations. The gold rebound lacks sustainability, and it quickly fell after a surge, indicating that the shorts are still dominant.
At present, as long as the tariff issue has not been substantially eased, the market's risk aversion sentiment may still drive funds to the US dollar, and non-US assets such as gold will continue to be under pressure.
2. Technical analysis: shocks are bearish, pay attention to key resistance and support
1. Trend judgment: bearish, weak rebound
1-hour chart: The moving average system diverges downward in a dead cross, and the short-selling momentum has not weakened.
K-line pattern: Multiple rebounds have long upper shadows, indicating heavy selling pressure above (such as the 3012-3015 area).
Key positions:
Resistance: 3012-3015 (short-term strong pressure), 3050 (gap filling position).
Support: 2950-2956 (short-term long-short watershed), 2948 (long stop loss position).
2. Operational difficulties: Strategy adjustment under high volatility
Gold has fluctuated greatly recently, but the continuity is poor, so we need to be wary of "false breakthroughs".
Core idea: rebound high and short as the main, callback short and long as the auxiliary, strict stop loss is required.
3. Today's operation strategy: key positions are arranged in batches
Short order strategy (main direction)
Entry: short at rebound to 3012-3015, stop loss 3022.
Target: 2980-2970→break to see 2956.
Logic: resistance zone pressure + moving average suppression, shorts prevail.
Long order strategy (auxiliary)
Entry: Long after the correction to 2953-2956 stabilizes, stop loss 2948.
Target: 2970-2980→break through to 3000.
Logic: Short-term support level rebound, need to quickly stop profit.
IV. Risk warning and trading discipline
Position control: recent volatility is drastic, light position operation (it is recommended that no more than 5% position per transaction).
Strict stop loss: avoid resisting orders, especially beware of sudden reversal of tariff news.
Flexible response: If the Asian and European sessions break through 3015 or fall below 2950, the strategy needs to be adjusted in time.
V. Summary
Trend: Gold is overall short-selling, but under high volatility, it is necessary to wait patiently for key positions to enter.
Strategy: Priority is given to shorting at high rebound levels, while long orders are limited to short-term longing at support levels.
Key points: Pay attention to the 3015 resistance and 2950 support, which may open up new space after breaking.
Trade active
The recent market fluctuations are very large, which is in line with the properties of gold. When all assets are sold, the safe-haven property of the currency is highlighted. The sharp decline is accompanied by a fierce rebound, and the amplitude is not small. This was the case last Thursday, Friday and today. The current market fluctuations are tens of dollars. There are opportunities but also great risks. If the panic sentiment does not subside, this will be the norm. What retail investors can do is to decide what they can decide and do a good job of risk control. The current market is defined as a volatile market, which is a position operation. The short-term resistance is 3025/3030 short, and the support for the retracement is 2980/2977 long. The limit is 2970, and the trading is maintained at these positions. I think it is mainly a wash. The long-term price of gold has not changed, and what is more concerned about that day is the current long-short conversion. Gold resistance today focuses on the pressure area of 3025-30. Remember, this adjustment has come to an end after US$3055 breaks. On the whole, in today's short-term operation of gold, recommends to focus on callbacks and longs, supplemented by rebounds and shorts. The upper short-term focus is on the 3025-3030 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2975-2980 first-line support.Trade closed: target reached
1. News analysis: long and short factors are intertwined, and the market focuses on US inflation data
Negative factors: The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses gold prices
Due to the risk aversion sentiment in the market caused by the comprehensive imposition of tariffs by the United States, funds flowed into the US dollar in the short term, causing gold to be under pressure.
Fed Chairman Powell did not clearly release a signal of interest rate cuts. The market's expectations for a rate cut in May fell to 57%, and the probability of a rate cut in June is still high (95 basis points are expected to be cut throughout the year).
Potential support: Concerns about economic recession still exist, and the long-term bullish logic of gold has not changed
Global economic uncertainty (geopolitics, trade frictions) still supports the safe-haven demand for gold.
If the US CPI (Thursday) and PPI (Friday) data this week are lower than expected, it may re-strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is good for gold.
2. Technical analysis: The adjustment has not yet ended, pay attention to key support and rebound signals
Big cycle trend: Still in a bullish pattern, currently a technical correction
Gold has fallen from a high of 3168 to 2956, a large drop, but it has not destroyed the long-term upward trend.
If the adjustment is in place (2920-2910 area), the upward trend may still be restarted; on the contrary, if it falls below 2900, it may enter a deeper correction.
Short-term trend: Pay attention to whether the 2956 low point forms a bottom
Daily level: After three consecutive large negative lines, the market has a rebound demand. If it closes positive on Tuesday, it may confirm a short-term stop; if it continues to close negative, it may drop to 2920-2910.
4-hour level: Currently rebounding near 2956, if it breaks through 3015 (short-term resistance), it may test the key pressure zone of 3035-3055; if it is blocked and falls back, it may test the support of 2970-2980 again.
3. Key trading points and strategies
Support level:
Short-term: 2970-2980 (near Tuesday's low)
Key: 2956 (recent low), if it falls below, look down to 2920-2910.
Resistance level:
Short-term: 3015 (4-hour level suppression)
Key: 3035-3055 (breakthrough or confirm the end of adjustment, start a new round of rise).
Operation strategy:
Short-term (intraday):
Rebound short: 3025-3035 interval light position short, stop loss above 3040, target 2980-2970.
Callback long: 2970-2980 stabilizes and can try long orders, stop loss below 2960, target 3015-3025.
Mid-term layout:
If the gold price stabilizes above 3055, or pulls back to 2920-2910 to stabilize, you can consider arranging long orders in batches, with a target of 3160-3200.
IV. Risk warning
Impact of CPI data: If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may further suppress expectations of interest rate cuts, resulting in pressure on gold.
Dollar trend: If the dollar continues to strengthen, gold may continue to adjust.
Conclusion
Gold is currently in the adjustment stage, short-term bearish but there is a possibility of rebound. In terms of trading, it is recommended to short at the rebound high and long at the key support low, focusing on the breakthrough of the 2956-3055 range. Medium and long-term investors can wait for clearer bottom signals (such as 2920 support or 3055 breakthrough) before making arrangements.
(Note: The market fluctuates greatly, it is recommended to strictly stop loss and respond flexibly.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.