Analysis of gold market trends next week:
Analysis of gold news: On Friday (February 14), gold prices fell sharply due to profit-taking, but are still expected to rise for the seventh consecutive week. Spot gold fell 1.53% to $2,882.23 per ounce, but the cumulative increase this week is still nearly 0.8%. On Tuesday, gold prices hit a record high of $2,942.70 per ounce. The sharp decline in U.S. retail sales in January put pressure on the dollar, but gold prices plummeted by about 1.5% on Friday and fell below $2,900 per ounce as traders took profits before the weekend. Data released on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales in January contracted by 0.9% month-on-month, far worse than the expected -0.1%. Gold prices fell sharply despite falling U.S. bond yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.48%. U.S. real yields, which are inversely correlated with gold prices, fell 4 basis points to 2.041%. Despite a sharp correction on Friday, gold prices still rose for the seventh consecutive week this week, mainly because U.S. President Trump promoted the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which triggered market concerns about the global trade war and further promoted safe-haven buying.
Technical analysis of gold: The gold market experienced a significant decline on Friday night, and the technical form showed a double top structure, which is usually regarded as a reversal signal, indicating that the market may enter a period of adjustment. From the perspective of technical indicators, the MACD indicator currently forms a dead cross at a high level, and the momentum column gradually shrinks, indicating that the market's upward momentum is weakening and the risk of decline is accumulating. At the same time, MA5 (5-day moving average) has crossed MA10 (10-day moving average), forming a dead cross signal of the short-term moving average, further confirming the market's adjustment needs. These technical signals all point to the possibility that gold may continue to pull back in the short term.
The 4-hour chart of gold rebounded yesterday at the 2940 line and then closed lower under pressure, pulling the moving average indicator to turn around, and the 4-hour chart rose slowly and fell quickly. The rise is a continuous rise of small broken Yang lines, and the big fall is a big Yin line with a small Yang line rebound correction and then a big Yin line down. The rise for five days and the fall for one day have lost nearly half of the rising space. At the same time, the 4-hour chart lost the middle track and weakened. The pressure of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands has also begun to move down to the 2900 line, and the hourly chart is flat. The short-term idea is still to fluctuate and fall, but the rhythm is slightly slower. Friday's scary data was bullish for gold prices. Gold rose slightly to 2933 and then fell all the way. The main reason was the weekend closing, which was caused by profit-making selling of long orders at high levels. It once fell below 2900 and gave a low of 2877 during the session, and finally closed at 2882.
After this high-level diving trend, the trend for next week is already clear. After the long sell-off, we can still find support positions at low levels to arrange long orders next week. From the hourly chart, gold price hit a new high of 2942 this week, and after the pullback at the end of last week, it has gone through two waves of pullbacks. 2865 below is a support reference, so you can open a long position above this position next Monday to look bullish; as for the suppression above, you can pay attention to the four-hour Bollinger band middle track 2908 and the starting and falling point 2930 at the end of the week. Taken together, in terms of short-term operation ideas for gold next week, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends mainly shorting on rebounds, supplemented by longing on lows. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2903-2908 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term will focus on the 2865-2860 first-line support.
Gold operation strategy:
1. When gold rebounds, go short at the 2903-2908 line, stop loss at 2915, and target the 2880 line; continue to hold if the position is broken! Look down to 2860
Trade active
Gold's pullback has not changed the upward trend! Can it break through the new high next week?
The gold market has experienced significant price fluctuations this week. Despite the pullback, the overall upward trend remains unchanged. After hitting a record high of $2,942.70/oz, spot gold prices saw profit-taking and technical adjustments, but still recorded a nearly 0.8% increase this week. Market sentiment is complicated, but multiple factors still support the safe-haven demand for gold.
Market review this week:
Record highs and pullbacks: Spot gold hit a record high of $2,942.70/oz on Tuesday, and then pulled back due to profit-taking and technical pressure. Despite the pullback, gold is still on track for a seventh straight weekly gain.
Fundamental support:
Trump's tariff remarks: Trump's request to study reciprocal tariff measures has exacerbated global trade tensions, pushing up inflation expectations and risk aversion.
Weak US economic data: January retail sales data hit the largest drop in nearly two years, triggering market concerns about slowing US economic growth.
Weaker US dollar: The weak US dollar further supported gold prices.
Technical analysis: Gold prices failed to break through the record high, forming a potential double-top pattern, and short-term adjustment signals are obvious. However, the overall upward trend remains unchanged, and the technical support level is around $2,850/ounce.
Market outlook for next week:
Fundamental factors:
Trade policy: Trump's reciprocal tariff policy will continue to affect market sentiment and push up the safe-haven demand for gold.
US economic data: Weak retail sales data may exacerbate market concerns about economic slowdown and further support gold.
Fed policy: Despite inflationary pressure, the Fed may maintain the current interest rate policy, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level.
Technical outlook: If gold prices can remain above $2,880/ounce, there is still a possibility of breaking through the record high in the short term. If it falls below $2,850/ounce, it may trigger a further correction, but the downside is limited.
Market focus:
US economic data: Especially the subsequent impact of retail sales.
Fed meeting minutes: The market will pay attention to the Fed's response to the economic slowdown.
Global trade situation: The Trump administration's policy moves will continue to affect market sentiment.
Summary:
Although the gold market faces profit-taking and technical adjustment pressure in the short term, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged. Factors such as trade tensions, inflation expectations, a weak dollar and a slowing US economy will continue to support the safe-haven demand for gold. The market is expected to remain volatile next week, and investors should pay close attention to changes in economic data and policy trends. The medium- and long-term prospects for gold remain optimistic, and short-term volatility may intensify, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged.
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest gold trading strategy on February 17
Spot gold rebounded slightly during the European session on Monday (February 17), but the strength was limited. The daily decline reached 1.5% last Friday, falling from the historical high. However, it should be noted that the price volatility increased significantly after the long squeeze, and it was running at a high level. The longs took profits, causing the gold price to adjust. The gold price is approaching $2,905/ounce, up more than $22 a day. At present, the Trump administration plans to formally impose tariffs on auto imports on April 2, which may have a wide impact on the global supply chain. Although some investors believe that Trump's tariff policy is mainly a negotiation strategy, the market remains cautious about possible uncertainties in the future. In addition to safe-haven demand, the central bank's continued gold purchases are also a key factor in maintaining high gold prices. According to market surveys, major central banks around the world, especially those in major Asian countries, continue to increase their gold reserves to hedge against global economic uncertainties. Monday is the US President's Day holiday. The US stock market is closed and the precious metals market is closed early. Market trading may be limited. Pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Board member Bowman and Trump's dynamic news, and pay attention to news related to the situation between Russia and Ukraine. There are relatively few economic data this week, mainly due to the US real estate market data and the initial value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in February. Pay attention to the interest rate decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
There is more speculation that Trump's threats are mainly used as a negotiation tool. His government's tariff policy has become increasingly confusing due to delays and exemptions. These geopolitical and economic uncertainties have further enhanced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. The Trump administration's delay in implementing the tariff proposal and traders' profit-taking have limited the rise in gold prices. Trump signed a presidential memorandum on Thursday, setting out his plan to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on foreign countries. However, he delayed the implementation of the tariffs and launched one-by-one negotiations with countries that might be affected. The easing of global trade war panic has put pressure on gold prices, which are traditional safe-haven assets. Investors will pay close attention to further developments in Trump's tariff policy. Any signs of increased trade tensions and uncertainty could drive safe-haven inflows, benefiting precious metals such as gold. Traders are also studying the latest U.S. economic data for clues on the path of possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The recent volatility in gold prices reflects that market unease about the global economy remains high, especially against the backdrop of uncertainty over Trump's tariff policy, as safe-haven demand drives gold prices back up. However, it should be noted that short-term correction pressure on gold prices may increase, and investors need to be cautious in dealing with market fluctuations. In the long term, global central banks' increased holdings of gold, the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, and global economic uncertainty will provide continued support for gold prices, and gold remains an important safe haven in asset allocation. Although gold prices are affected by Trump's tariff threats and market technical adjustments in the short term, in the long run, global economic uncertainty, central bank gold purchases, and potential Fed rate cuts will continue to support gold prices.
Analysis of gold market trend:
Gold technical analysis: Gold surged higher and fell again last Friday. Although it did not hit a new high again, it also touched a record high near 2940 and then quickly retreated. The lowest hit around 2876 and then began to reverse correction. It rose directly after the opening of the day and currently reached the highest level. Near 2905, it is also approaching the key suppression point for top-bottom transition. As for the daily line, last Friday's sharp decline, the daily line closed at the big negative line, also broke the previous upward trend, so the retracement is still expected to continue in the short term, and the morning counterattack may also be a short position. Self-correction, and the support below will continue to be maintained near the low point of last week. The focus is also on the strength of the European session. Once the European session continues to retreat, the US session will still have a signal to continue to short, and the support below the daily line will also be maintained near the 10-day moving average. Once this position continues to break, it will form a continuous negative line pattern, and then a large-scale retracement will be formed in the later period;
Gold is suppressed by the double top structure in 4 hours. Gold rebounded to 2905 and fell directly. Gold continued to short at highs after rebounding below 2905 in the European session. Gold shorts have just begun and are not afraid of rebounds. Gold rebounded, and gold rebounded to 2905 and went short directly. Gold fell as expected and harvested first. Gold is now just a rebound market, and the European session rebounded and continued to go short. On the whole, Our team of professional and senior gold analysts suggested that shorting on rebounds is the main strategy for short-term gold operations today, and long on pullbacks is supplemented. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2905-2910 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2864-2834 line of support.
Judging from the current trend of gold, today's support at the bottom will focus on the vicinity of 2875-2885, and the pressure on the top will focus on the vicinity of 2908-2913. The overall situation relies on this range to maintain a high-altitude, low-multiple cycle to participate in the main tone. In the middle position, watch more and move less, pursue orders cautiously, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. Gold operation strategy for today:
1. If gold rebounds, you can go short on the 2910-2915 line, with a stop loss of 2922 and a target of 2890-2897;
2. If gold falls back on the 2875-2883 line, go long with short positions, and if it falls back on the 2868-2870 line, cover long positions, stop loss at 2862, target the 2910-2915 line; continue to hold if the position is broken!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.