Analysis of gold news: At the end of the Asian market on Friday (March 21), spot gold fluctuated and fell from a high level. Gold prices fell after hitting a record high earlier on Thursday, but driven by the Federal Reserve's hint of a possible rate cut and continued geopolitical and economic uncertainties, gold still maintains a bullish outlook. Spot gold hit a record high of $3,057.21 earlier in the day on Thursday, but later gave up gains due to profit-taking and closed at $3,044.35/ounce. No important economic data was released in the United States this trading day, but the Federal Reserve's "number three figure", permanent voting member, and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech, which investors need to pay close attention to. In addition, investors need to pay attention to news related to the situation in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East.
Analysis of gold technical aspects: Gold hit a high of 3,057 yesterday and was blocked and fell back. The daily line closed with a negative cross star, and a short-term correction is needed. The daily resistance is around 3,050, and it can be shorted if it is not broken. At present, gold is still struggling in the range, but the hourly chart has an obvious head and shoulders trend, with the head at 3057, the shoulder at 3045, and the neckline at 3022. Once the hourly chart stands below 3022, the market will be expected to fall further to the 3000 mark. Only by breaking the 3000 mark can it fall better!
The gold four-hour line has a large negative line entity, with three negative lines at the top. This is also a bearish engulfing pattern. At least the large negative line entity directly covers the positive line entity, and the top pattern appears. The K-line rebound is weak, and high-level shorts are inevitable. In the early trading, the 3047 line fell back. If the market falls below 3035, continue to look at 3025-3020. Today's operation is mainly shorting at high positions. If a new high is unexpectedly reached, it will temporarily see a false break and fall. In addition to the 3025 low point, the lower support is 3020. Strong support is around 3005, and you can still go long if it is touched. Taken together, in terms of today's short-term gold operation ideas, our professional gold analyst team recommends mainly shorting on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The top short-term focus is on the 3047-3050 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 3018-3015 first-line support.
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Gold trend analysis: On the 4-hour chart, gold has a strong support level near $3,000, which is also the neckline of the head and shoulders top pattern. Buyers are expected to intervene here and use the neckline as a risk control point, with the goal of pushing gold prices to new highs. Conversely, sellers will watch for a break below this support to gain confidence and increase short selling. The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to flatten. If the 1-hour moving average of gold turns downward, the strength of gold bulls will weaken. Moreover, gold has already formed a head and shoulders top pattern in the 1-hour chart. Gold is under pressure to continue to short at the high point of 3057. At present, the support of the moving average needs to focus on the MA20 line, and the dead cross signal of the MACD indicator should also be guarded against. It is not ruled out that there may be profit corrections at the end of the weekly line. Therefore, it is recommended to rebound high and empty as the main operation.
In the short term, the price of gold may fluctuate and consolidate in the range of $2,980-3,057. The support below focuses on $3,000 and $2,990. If these supports are effectively broken (i.e. the decline exceeds 1.5 times ATR), the price may further drop to $2980-75. In the medium term, as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues to heat up, coupled with the support of global trade tensions and geopolitical risk factors, the gold price is still expected to maintain an upward trend. The market pays attention to the trend of the US dollar index and the speeches of Fed officials, which will become the key variables affecting the gold price. If the gold price can stand above $3045 again, it may challenge the historical high of $3057.28 again. After breaking through, it is expected to start a new round of rise, with the target pointing to the psychological barrier of $3100. However, the change in market sentiment will be the key to judging the effectiveness of the breakthrough. The idea next week is to rebound and short first, with support below 3000-2990, further support at 2980, and resistance above 3025-3030.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.