Long

GOLD, will we see a pullback this week?

Updated

So far gold dropped nearly 8% from the new ATH without any significant pullback, bringing a lot of money to market makers, who created the fake move.

At some point a pullback should happen, but it's hard to tell when. The first structure support at 2000 was already violated today and we reached to 50% retracement within a really short period of time considering how long the move up took (which was also impulsive in my mind).

According to my last analysis I am still waiting for a correctional B wave to be formed, which would make it possible for us to
1. Get a short position.
2. Calculate timing and goal for a possible wave two target area.

At this point it is impossible to tell where a wave B could find it's highest point, but there are important resistance areas to mention:
2004 - 2010, 2028 - 2033 and 2044 - 2052

Only a price close above 2080 can form an impulse for higher prices.

The support areas for buying a possible pullbacks are:
1971 - 1977 and 1932 - 1939

We already reached the first support, having a confluence with the 50% fib retracement.

Trade active

BUY @1976
SL 1965
TP 2000, 2020

Trade closed manually

There will be CPI data later, so it might be good to close some of the positions from 1976 here with a profit of 120 Pips.

Trade closed: target reached

2000 reached!

Note

Maybe the next short move will start from here, but there are also chances to get back above the 2K level to retest the new ATH somehow.

Trade closed: target reached

2020 reached. This could extend to 2050 also. Holding some positions.

Note

This analysis made a profit of 600 Pips so far, hope you got some of them :)
Risk has been 110 Pips, so also a very good risk to reward ratio.

Maybe there will be one more wave to go long and reach the final targets of 2050 and 2060.

Note

As you can see the second resistance area was reached nicely and the price was rejected just from the above key level of 2040. Only if we see a breakout above the current area (2038), a rise until 2050-2070 is expected. A break below will most likely form pullback to 2020 to collect more liquidity.

Note

Very strong bullish volume again. If we directly go to the next area, I will look for a short position.

Strong resistances can be found at 2051, 2067 and 2071.

Note

Next structure zone is getting testet. I expect a retest of 2030 as the next step.

Note

2030 retest complete. Hope you found a nice spot to sell.

Note

Remember the resistance areas I mentioned:
2004 - 2010, 2028 - 2033 and 2044 - 2052

We have seen a reaction at every single area, but finally only 2044-2052 was able to stop the move. From this point I see two options for the price to develop. The bearish move could start from the actual resistance 2044 - 2052 or we could see another wave to the next resistance area around 2067 - 2072.

Note

It looks like we are going to hit 2055-2070 soon. As I said I will look for a shorting position in this area.

Note

If today's candle closes bearish it should be a sell too. Let's see.

Note

Observe that key resistance at 2046. It can be a tripple top perspectively.

Trade active

Gold was rejected from the strong resistance area for the third time, forming a potential tripple top pattern. I will open my first short position here. If the mentioned area 2044-2052 will be broken it will go directly to 2067 - 2071, so I use 2052 as my SL level. If you want to hold it tight, you could use 2046 instead.

Profit taking levels are 2000, 1950, 1920

Note

Price managed to break 2046 and is now facing resistance at 2050. A move above should continue to the trend to around 2060-70 where the main resistance is. Only a move above 2080 will open higher price targets. Still looking to short here.

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The first short attempt failed, but the price stopped at 2055 because of a trendline. I will try again from here and if this level won't hold from 2070.

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Gold is very close to 2070, where I expect the long trend to finally end. Let's see.

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So far, shorting from 2070 brought an nice profit. There is a chance, that the resistance will be tested again before the huge sell of.

Note

As you may noticed I didn't update here because I took christmas holidays with the family. Unfortunately Gold didn't react from the mentioned level and reached its highest point at 2088. I still think that the trend is about to end very soon and we may reached the top of a large B wave.

As this analysis was a long idea and the price of gold reached every single target and even extended more, I hope you were able to catch some moves. I would like to show you my short idea in a new idea post, so check my TV channel for updates.

Kyrean

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