The latest gold trend analysis strategy on March 31:

Core trading logic：
Driving factors: Risk aversion (geopolitical conflict), Fed rate cut expectations, central bank gold purchases and inflationary pressure jointly support gold prices, and the expectation of a weaker dollar further strengthens the attractiveness of gold. Key events: If the US PCE data shows stagflation (high inflation + weak economy), it may push up gold; if inflation eases, rising expectations of rate cuts may also be good for gold.

Technical key points：
Trend: Bulls are strong. After breaking through the historical high of 3057, the next target is the 3100 mark.
Support/resistance:
Support: 3065-3070 (short-term strength and weakness boundary), 3047 (top of the previous range)
Resistance: 3095-3100 (psychological barrier), 3120-3150 after breakthrough
Indicators: Daily and 4-hour moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, RSI is overbought but no divergence has occurred, beware of the risk of a high-level correction.

Operation strategy
Long opportunities:
Ideal entry: Go long after stabilizing at 3065-3070, stop loss below 3057, target 3085-3100.
Aggressive pursuit of long: If it breaks through 3100 quickly and does not break 3090 after falling back, you can follow up with a light position, stop loss 3080, target 3120.

Short opportunities:
Short short attempt: If it touches 3100 for the first time without breaking, you can go short with a light position, stop loss 3105, target 3080.
Deep pullback signal: If it falls below 3060 and the rebound is weak, it may go down to 3047. At that time, you can consider going short after rebounding to 3070.

Summary：
Main strategy: go long on callbacks (3065-3070 area), stop loss 3057, target 3100.
Alternative strategy: After breaking 3100, step back to follow up with long orders, or fall below 3060 and then step back to sell short in the short term.
Key risk control: avoid chasing long positions at high positions and put position management first.

Trade active

Gold prices hit a record high on Friday as U.S. President Trump's latest tariff policy raised concerns about a global trade war and investors flocked to safe-haven assets. Spot gold climbed 0.9% to its 18th record high this year at $3,086.66. It rose 2.02% this week, the fourth consecutive week of gains.

The market is currently preparing for Trump's plan for reciprocal tariffs on April 2. U.S. President Trump plans to announce new tariffs in the coming days. He said he is somewhat open to reaching tariff agreements with other countries, but he hinted that any agreement will be reached after the tariff measures take effect on April 2. When asked if this would happen before the April 2 tariff announcement, he said: "No. Most likely later." Trump also reiterated plans to announce tariffs on medicines, but he declined to disclose the specific rates of those tariffs.

In addition, the rise in gold prices this week was also supported by tensions in the Middle East and the optimistic impact of the less-than-expected negotiations on the Ukraine issue. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine would not accept any mineral rights agreement that threatened its integration with the European Union, but he said it was too early to judge the greatly expanded mineral agreement proposed by Washington. According to Refinitiv, the latest agreement will be announced next week, which may increase the volatility of gold prices next week.

Next week will usher in Trump's tariff week, and countries are currently relatively tough. Mexican President Sheinbaum said on March 28 local time that he opposed the United States' unilateral imposition of a 25% automobile tariff. Mexico will wait for Trump to announce new tariff measures on April 2 to make a "comprehensive response." Mexico is formulating comprehensive response measures to strengthen the national economy and respond to unilateral behavior. At the same time, the negotiation process with the United States is still continuing, striving to ensure stable employment, maintain investment, and avoid damaging the interests of the United States and Canada.

Gold prices are currently bullish. Although some traders have taken profits, gold prices may fluctuate more next week under the intensification of tariffs and geopolitical tensions, and are expected to refresh the historical high to around 3130 again.

Trade closed: target reached

Technical analysis of gold: From the weekly chart of gold, after three consecutive weeks of steady upward movement, the current structure has formed four consecutive positive lines, and there is a lack of obvious pressure reference above, so it can only continue to be treated as a large integer range, such as the position of the 3100 mark, which is quite critical. At this stage, the short-term moving average group shows a perfect long arrangement, and the MACD indicator below is also in a golden cross state, so the bulls have once again occupied a clear advantage.

From the gold daily chart, although the latest inflation indicators show a risk of rebound, it is more likely to be caused by the tariff policy. Therefore, risk aversion is undoubtedly the dominant factor, which also caused the gold price to rise to the 3127 line. The current moving average group is an extremely strong upward signal. However, since it is still far away from the current price, beware of the possibility of correction at the beginning of the week. The key long and short price now is the competition for 3100. If the bulls are not strong, if the level is broken, we can see a deep correction. On the whole, our professional and experienced gold trading team recommends that the short-term operation strategy for gold today should be mainly long on pullbacks and short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3135-3140 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3105-3100 support line.

Gold_Alpha

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