Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour time frame and is in its ascending channel. Our initial position today will be to buy gold. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling indicated by the upward trend line.
It appears that Trump has softened his stance on tariffs, a shift that has significantly impacted the dollar. He has stated that he prefers using tariffs as a tool to control China rather than directly imposing them. Currently, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports might be implemented, though this is far from the 60% tariff he had proposed during his campaign. If Trump has taken a more lenient approach toward China, could he adopt a softer stance on other countries as well? Perhaps.
Regardless, the tailwind that supported the dollar since December has officially shifted direction. The dollar seemed to hold Trump’s “trump card”—quite literally—at the start of the new year. But was that truly the case? If you recall, Trump’s stance on the dollar this time contrasts sharply with his first term in office.
Now, Trump favors a weaker dollar—or at least that’s what he said last year. The only viable option to achieve this is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more quickly, and it seems that’s precisely what he’s trying to do.
He now claims that he “understands interest rates better than the Federal Reserve” and insists that rates should be reduced “immediately.” However, this does not necessarily mean the Fed will alter its current policy. The Federal Reserve’s mandate typically operates beyond political influence, but Trump could ease the situation if he merely talks about tariffs without taking action.
This would help alleviate inflation concerns, but we might need to wait a few more months to be certain, which is likely what Federal Reserve policymakers would prefer.
That said, one can never rule out the possibility of Trump abruptly changing his mind. For now, however, it seems the dollar has started the new year under Trump’s influence. As tariff concerns fade, the focus will shift back to inflation and labor market data to determine where the economy heads from here.
It appears that Trump has softened his stance on tariffs, a shift that has significantly impacted the dollar. He has stated that he prefers using tariffs as a tool to control China rather than directly imposing them. Currently, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports might be implemented, though this is far from the 60% tariff he had proposed during his campaign. If Trump has taken a more lenient approach toward China, could he adopt a softer stance on other countries as well? Perhaps.
Regardless, the tailwind that supported the dollar since December has officially shifted direction. The dollar seemed to hold Trump’s “trump card”—quite literally—at the start of the new year. But was that truly the case? If you recall, Trump’s stance on the dollar this time contrasts sharply with his first term in office.
Now, Trump favors a weaker dollar—or at least that’s what he said last year. The only viable option to achieve this is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more quickly, and it seems that’s precisely what he’s trying to do.
He now claims that he “understands interest rates better than the Federal Reserve” and insists that rates should be reduced “immediately.” However, this does not necessarily mean the Fed will alter its current policy. The Federal Reserve’s mandate typically operates beyond political influence, but Trump could ease the situation if he merely talks about tariffs without taking action.
This would help alleviate inflation concerns, but we might need to wait a few more months to be certain, which is likely what Federal Reserve policymakers would prefer.
That said, one can never rule out the possibility of Trump abruptly changing his mind. For now, however, it seems the dollar has started the new year under Trump’s influence. As tariff concerns fade, the focus will shift back to inflation and labor market data to determine where the economy heads from here.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.