Analysis of gold trading trends next week:
Gold prices broke through the $2,800 mark for the first time on Friday. U.S. President Trump's tariff threat has exacerbated market concerns about global economic growth and inflationary pressures, prompting investors to rush to buy safe-haven assets. It hit a record high of $2,817.23 during the session.
There are many uncertainties now, and the market is also taking a wait-and-see attitude towards tariff issues on the geopolitical stage.
Trump has set Saturday as the deadline for deciding to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico. Gold is the asset of choice in times of economic and geopolitical turmoil. It is expected to achieve its best monthly performance since March 2024. It has risen nearly 7% so far this month. Gold has repeatedly set new highs last year.
London gold market participants are competing to borrow central bank gold stored in London as the market speculates that the United States may impose import tariffs, and gold deliveries to the United States have surged.
The shortest waiting time to withdraw gold from the Bank of England, which stores gold for central banks, has reached four weeks, compared with a few days or a week under normal circumstances. US President Trump did not mention precious metals in his tariff plan, but the risk was enough to boost gold delivery in New York as some markets sought to hedge their positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and some markets sought to profit from the sharp increase in the premium of COMEX futures to London spot contracts.
Both Fed Governor Bowman and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed a fundamental belief in their respective speeches that inflation could continue to fall this year and allow for further rate cuts, although the timing of the cuts is uncertain.
Gold continues to set new highs, gold is strong and unstoppable. After gold broke through 2790, it has begun to form strong support. Gold fell back above 2790 and continued to buy on dips.
Judging from the 4-hour analysis, the stable support position below will focus on around 2788-90. If you step back, rely on this position to do long bullish calls. The strong dividing line for bulls below will focus on the 2765 mark. The daily level will stabilize above this position and continue to maintain the long rhythm at low levels. Changes, short selling needs to wait for the acceleration to reach the 2820-2825 mark before participating, and short selling in other positions needs to be cautious.
Our professional team of senior gold analysts recommends
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long when gold falls back on the 2788-2790 line, cover long positions when it falls back on the 2780-85 line, stop loss 2771, target the 2798-2800 line; continue to hold if the position is broken!
Trade active
From a technical macro-cycle analysis, gold's decline since $2,790 can indeed be regarded as a major cycle adjustment. This kind of adjustment is a very common phenomenon in financial markets, especially after a sharp rise. From July to October 2024, the price of gold experienced a significant increase, especially from September to October, showing a strong trend of short squeeze and rise. This rapid rise often leads to an overbought market, triggering a subsequent correction.
1. Rationality of adjustment
Technical repair: The adjustment range from $2,790 to $2,537 is technically reasonable. Usually, after a sharp rise, the market will digest the previous gains through a correction, repair the overbought technical indicators, and accumulate energy for the next round of rise.
Psychological pressure of the whole hundred mark: In the gold market, the whole hundred mark (such as $2,800) often has important psychological and technical significance. When prices reach these marks, they usually experience repeated fluctuations, and market participants may take profits or re-enter the market at these key points, resulting in a short-term retracement of prices.
2. Analysis of retracement range
The retracement from $2817 to $2798 is only about $20. Compared with the current round of gains from $2583 to over $200 above $2800, this retracement seems very mild. This shows that the market bulls are still strong and the bears are not dominant.
This small retracement is usually regarded as the performance of the market in the consolidation stage, rather than a signal of trend reversal. The purpose of the adjustment is to digest short-term profit-taking and provide a more solid foundation for subsequent gains.
3. Future Outlook
Bullish expectations: From a macro-cycle perspective, the upward trend of gold remains intact. Although there has been a short-term adjustment, it does not change the overall bullish pattern. Especially against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, rising inflationary pressures and intensified geopolitical risks, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong.
Outlook for 2025: As gold prices hit a new high of $2,790 and broke through the round figure of $2,800, the upward trend became increasingly obvious. Although the gold price failed to close above $2,800 on Friday, this does not affect the overall bullish expectations. In the future, the gold price is expected to continue to rise after the adjustment and hit a new high.
4. Operation strategy
Buy on dips: In the current market environment, buying on dips is still a relatively safe strategy. Especially when the price retreats to the key support level, you can consider gradually establishing a long position.
Pay attention to key points: The round figure of $2,800 remains an important psychological and technical resistance level. Once the price effectively breaks through and stands firm at this mark, it may trigger a new round of rising market.
In general, the adjustment of the gold market is a normal market behavior, and the purpose of the adjustment is to better rise. Although prices may fluctuate in the short term, from a large cycle perspective, the upward trend of gold is still solid, and there is still a lot of room for upward movement in the future.
Trade closed: target reached
The United States announced a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau: 25% tariff on US goods worth 155 billion Canadian dollars
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said at a press conference that Canada will impose a 25% tariff on US goods worth 155 billion Canadian dollars, including tariffs on goods worth 30 billion Canadian dollars starting immediately from Tuesday, and further tariffs on US products worth 125 billion US dollars will be implemented within 21 days. After the United States announced tariffs on Canada, David Iby, the Premier of British Columbia, Canada, held a press conference and said that Trump's tariffs "completely betrayed the historical ties between the two countries. This is a declaration of economic war against a trusted ally and friend." Iby said that British Columbia has begun to retaliate against US goods, and he has instructed liquor distributors operated by the provincial government to stop buying American liquor and government procurement. At the same time, British Columbia will accelerate new natural resource projects and seek to diversify trade with the Asia-Pacific region. He called on people to buy Canadian goods.
After US President Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on Mexican goods, Mexican President Seinbaum publicly stated that "when we negotiate with other countries, when we interact with other countries, we always hold our heads high, never bow our heads, and we are equal." Seinbaum emphasized that Mexico is a free, independent and autonomous country. Mexico is capable of dealing with any situation.
A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs answered reporters' questions about the US announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US. The US imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US on the grounds of the fentanyl issue. China is strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposes this. It will take necessary countermeasures to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The US should view and deal with its own fentanyl problem objectively and rationally, rather than threatening other countries with tariffs at will. The practice of imposing tariffs is not constructive and will inevitably affect and damage the future cooperation between the two sides on drug control. China urges the US to correct its wrong practices, maintain the hard-won good situation of Sino-US drug control cooperation, and promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of Sino-US relations.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.