XAUUSD (Gold/USD) based on your 4H chart:
🔍 Technical Analysis
1. Chart Pattern:
Rounded Top / M Pattern: Clearly visible on the chart. This suggests bearish reversal, indicating buyers lost control.
2. Breakout Confirmation:
Price broke the neckline of the rounded top.
Formed a bearish flag/channel after the drop (a continuation pattern).
Price is currently retesting the previous support as resistance (red box zone ≈ 3276–3284).
If price respects this zone, further downside is likely.
3. Projection:
Arrows show potential continuation to the downside.
Final target zone around 3091–3100, which is a key horizontal support level.
4. Bearish Rejection Zone:
Blue downtrend line + previous support turned resistance = strong confluence area.
Ideal place for sellers to re-enter.
🧠 Fundamental Analysis (as of May 13, 2025)
Let’s consider current fundamentals influencing gold:
1. US CPI (Inflation Data) Coming Up:
Scheduled this week — if CPI is hotter than expected, the USD may strengthen, pushing gold lower.
2. Federal Reserve Tone:
Fed has remained cautious with rate cuts.
If data supports higher rates for longer, that’s bearish for gold (since gold doesn’t yield interest).
3. Geopolitical Uncertainty:
Any Middle East or global tensions may temporarily support gold. But if calm prevails, it weakens gold's safe-haven demand.
4. Bond Yields Rising:
If US 10Y yields rise, that typically pressures gold lower — because investors prefer yielding assets over non-yielding gold.
🧩 Conclusion & Trade Idea
Bias: Bearish below 3284
Trigger: Rejection at resistance zone + confluence with trendline
Target: 3091
Stop-loss: Just above 3284–3290 (based on invalidation zone)
🔍 Technical Analysis
1. Chart Pattern:
Rounded Top / M Pattern: Clearly visible on the chart. This suggests bearish reversal, indicating buyers lost control.
2. Breakout Confirmation:
Price broke the neckline of the rounded top.
Formed a bearish flag/channel after the drop (a continuation pattern).
Price is currently retesting the previous support as resistance (red box zone ≈ 3276–3284).
If price respects this zone, further downside is likely.
3. Projection:
Arrows show potential continuation to the downside.
Final target zone around 3091–3100, which is a key horizontal support level.
4. Bearish Rejection Zone:
Blue downtrend line + previous support turned resistance = strong confluence area.
Ideal place for sellers to re-enter.
🧠 Fundamental Analysis (as of May 13, 2025)
Let’s consider current fundamentals influencing gold:
1. US CPI (Inflation Data) Coming Up:
Scheduled this week — if CPI is hotter than expected, the USD may strengthen, pushing gold lower.
2. Federal Reserve Tone:
Fed has remained cautious with rate cuts.
If data supports higher rates for longer, that’s bearish for gold (since gold doesn’t yield interest).
3. Geopolitical Uncertainty:
Any Middle East or global tensions may temporarily support gold. But if calm prevails, it weakens gold's safe-haven demand.
4. Bond Yields Rising:
If US 10Y yields rise, that typically pressures gold lower — because investors prefer yielding assets over non-yielding gold.
🧩 Conclusion & Trade Idea
Bias: Bearish below 3284
Trigger: Rejection at resistance zone + confluence with trendline
Target: 3091
Stop-loss: Just above 3284–3290 (based on invalidation zone)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.