Analysis of gold market trends next week:
Analysis of gold news: On Friday (February 7), after the latest US employment report showed that the labor market slowed down but was still resilient, gold prices hit a new record high after a brief fluctuation. In addition to assessing the prospects of the Fed's future interest rate policy path, the escalating trade tensions caused by Trump's tariff threats prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets. After the release of the employment data, US Treasury yields and the US dollar rose slightly, limiting further gains in gold prices. Since gold itself does not pay interest and is denominated in US dollars, a stronger US dollar usually puts pressure on gold prices. Market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts have cooled, and currently only the possibility of less than two rate cuts is taken into account, which is a decline from the previous more aggressive rate cut expectations. Although the employment data supports the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, which is theoretically unfavorable for gold prices, safe-haven demand continues to be strong and gold remains close to its historical highs. Due to trade war concerns, gold traders in London are accelerating the transfer of gold to the United States in case gold may face tariffs. Bloomberg reported that gold in the Bank of England's vaults is trading below the market price, and the waiting time for gold withdrawal has been as long as several weeks due to tight supply. Overall, although the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged, limiting some of the gains in gold prices, safe-haven demand continues to support gold prices, keeping them near historical highs.
Technical analysis of gold: From the current market, this week's weekly line recorded a positive line with an upper shadow, forming a six-day positive arrangement. The current price is running above the upper track of the Bollinger Band, and the short-term moving average maintains a golden cross and develops upward. It stands to reason that it will be conducive to the continued strength of the bulls, so the weekly chart is still bullish. In terms of the daily line, although the daily line recorded a positive line yesterday, the long upper shadow line cannot be ignored, because this shows that the gold price encountered strong resistance in the 2886 area. However, fortunately, the short-term indicators are still arranged in a bullish pattern, the short-term moving average extends upward, and forms a strong support in the 2848-2850 area. In addition, the overall opening of the Bollinger Band is upward, and the golden cross pattern of the macd indicator provides support for the bulls. Therefore, low-long on the daily chart is still the main idea. In the 4 hours, affected by the rise and fall of gold prices, the 5-day moving average among the short-term moving averages turned downwards, which also led to the formation of short-term resistance at the opening of next week. In addition, the strength of the bulls was obviously insufficient, which can be reflected in the rapid retracement from the high around 2860. In addition, the upward momentum of the short-term indicators is not strong, and the macd indicator once again developed a dead cross downward. Therefore, in general, the 4-hour chart should be treated as a pullback from the high. In general, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends rebound shorting as the main strategy for short-term gold operations next week, and callback longing as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2882-2887 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2835-2830 line of support.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short gold at 2882-2887 when it rebounds, stop loss at 2892, target around 2870-2860, break to 2850;
2. Go long at 2840-2845 when gold falls back, cover position at 2835 when gold falls back, stop loss at 2830, target 2888-2890; continue to hold if it breaks!
Trade active
This week, the gold market continued its strong upward trend. Driven by multiple positive factors, the price rose for the sixth consecutive week and hit a record high of $2,886.65 in trading. The main driving factors include: Surge in safe-haven demand: Global political and economic uncertainty has increased, especially US President Trump's announcement of additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Although it has been temporarily delayed for one month, the high uncertainty in the market has made investors' demand for gold still strong. Central bank increases gold holdings: The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves. It has increased its gold holdings for three consecutive months since July last year. In January, it purchased five tons of gold, raising its gold reserves to 2,285 tons. Although gold reserves account for only 5% of foreign exchange reserves, this continued increase in purchases indicates that China may continue to increase the proportion of gold reserves in the future.
Next week's market outlook
Next week, the gold market will still be closely affected by the global economic and political situation. The main focus includes: US CPI data: The United States will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, which will become the focus of market attention next week. If the CPI data is strong, it may increase market expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates, which in turn will put pressure on gold prices. On the contrary, if the inflation data is weak, it may further support the rise in gold prices. Political situation in Washington: The Trump administration's new moves on tariffs remain an important factor affecting market sentiment. Although Trump has temporarily delayed tariff measures on Mexico and Canada, this does not mean that the tariff issue has been resolved, and investors need to pay close attention to developments. Global economic data: Eurozone employment data and China's CPI and PPI data will also affect global market sentiment, which in turn will have an impact on gold prices. As trade uncertainty may lead to continued heightened uncertainty in global markets, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to remain at a high level.
Summary
Overall, the gold market performed strongly this week, setting a record high, mainly driven by safe-haven demand, weak US non-farm payrolls data, and continued gold holdings by global central banks. Market uncertainty remains the core driving force for gold's rise. Geopolitical tensions and weak expectations for the global economy have led investors to seek to allocate assets in safe-haven assets such as gold. With the further development of US economic data and global political situation next week, the gold market will face new challenges and opportunities, but with the continued purchase of gold by global central banks and the continued safe-haven demand, gold prices still have a large room for growth.
Trade closed: target reached
Today, Monday, gold opened lower in the Asian morning.
So for the moment, can gold continue to rise? First, gold opened lower and fell to 2854, then rose sharply to around 2878. In this regard, both bulls and bears have made a certain degree of explosion, but unfortunately, due to the outbreak of non-agricultural data last Friday, gold fell to 2853 twice and then rebounded, resulting in strong resistance at 2850. In this regard, when gold is falling back, it will inevitably trigger an influx of buying orders when it is close to such a low level, especially when the current market buying is strong, and there are also institutions that maliciously push up the gold price. After all, the US dollar has risen strongly, and gold has also encountered a reverse pull-up. The current bullish strength is beyond the technical and news levels. In addition, Trump's policy is a source of risk. Even if gold is at such a high level, it is difficult to dispel the bullish psychology of retail investors in the market. In this regard, in the short term, even if gold may collapse at any time, it may attract a large influx of transactions due to the decline of gold, thereby hindering the short-selling momentum of gold. You still need to be cautious about this. Of course, this is not the reason for our bullishness. After all, at such a high level, our professional and senior gold analyst team unanimously believes that we cannot blindly be bullish. In this regard, our team still recommends choosing to follow the trend. In this regard, I hope you will follow up carefully.
As for today, gold fell back to 2854 in the early Asian trading session, and then rose sharply to 2878. The bulls were still unstable even at high positions. After all, if the bulls really want to be strong, the high point is near 2887, and 2880 should not be able to hold. However, in the case of a sudden drop, the early Asian trading session is still in a state of harvesting. In this case, we can go long, but it is important to note that the long position still needs to be implemented at the key watershed of 2850, which is relatively safer. After all, for the high point of 2880-2887, although there is the possibility of further innovation, there are more resistances. In this regard, it can be regarded as a disguised restriction on the investment environment. It is a bit difficult to choose whether to go short or to go up. In this regard, for today, the main short position is to wait for the three positions of 2775-2880-2885 to find opportunities. The long position below should try to wait for the position of 2854-2850. If 2850 is broken, you can also take advantage of the trend and go short. If 2830-2820 does not break, you can consider going long. If there is a further unexpected high, 2890 may not be able to hold, but you can also try to enter the market with a short order. In this regard, 2890-2896 can also be arranged to touch the top and do short selling.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.