Gold Spot / U.S. DollarUpdated Analysis of gold trend on January 28
On Tuesday (January 28) in the European market, gold maintained a fluctuating trend in the $2,742area, which was affected by a combination of factors. US President Donald Trump's trade tariff remarks have rekindled inflation concerns and promoted a moderate rebound in US Treasury yields. The change helped the dollar rebound from a one-month low hit last Monday and became an important headwind for gold.
However, the intensifying inflationary pressure brought about by Trump's trade policy has limited gold's downside. Although tariff remarks will have a potential impact on the global economy, the market is full of concerns about the economic consequences of this situation, which has supported the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Against this background, traders seem to be cautious about the upcoming Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting and dare not make aggressive directional bets easily, which also prevents gold prices from fluctuating violently.
Additionally, US macro data may provide some fresh impetus during the North American trading session. Gold prices previously broke above horizontal resistance in the $2,720-$2,725 range and showed some resilience below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December to January uptrend. Our professional team of senior gold analysts believes that this shows that gold prices are likely to maintain their upward momentum, but it is also necessary to pay attention to the market's uncertainty about future trends.
Technical analysis:
From a technical point of view, gold's price trend is currently in a consolidation phase. The choppy consolidation on the daily chart suggests gold's short-term price is likely to remain range-bound. After breaking through the horizontal resistance of $2720-2725, gold prices showed some upward momentum. Despite this, technical indicators such as oscillators remain in the positive zone, showing that the market's bullish sentiment is strong, which means that the upward movement of gold prices still has some potential.
However, recent trends in gold prices suggest that the market may face certain risks without strong following buying. If gold prices fall below the previous lows in the $2730 area and move down to the $2725-2750 resistance-turned-support area, further downside space may be opened. Assuming that gold prices fall further, they may fall to the $2707-2705 range, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the target of further correction may be the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $2684.
On the contrary, from a technical perspective, gold prices are also likely to break through upward resistance, pushing prices higher. The current initial resistance is in the $2757-2760 range, followed by the previous swing high in the $2772-2773 area. If gold prices break above these levels and move past the $2,786 upside target, it would mean further confirmation of the bullish trend. If the price breaks through the key level of $2800 at this time, it may trigger new buying and push gold prices to continue the upward trend of the past month or so.
Comprehensive analysis
Combining fundamental and technical factors, gold prices may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the short term. Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains supported even as U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies have raised inflation concerns and pushed up the dollar and Treasury yields. Technically, although the gold price is currently in a fluctuating consolidation pattern, it still has the momentum to rise overall. Whether gold can break through the $2,800 mark in the future, we need to pay attention to the further reaction of the market and the results of the Federal Reserve meeting.
In short, the gold price may fluctuate in the range of $2,725-2,760 in the short term, and the prospect of long-term rise still exists, especially after breaking through the key technical level, gold may usher in a new wave of rising market
Today, the upper short-term resistance is around 2758-2760. The intraday rebound relies on this position to continue to be short and follow the trend to fall. The lower target continues to focus on breaking the bottom. The short-term support focuses on the 2733-2725 line. The overall support of the day relies on this range to maintain the main tone of high-level short-selling and low-level long-selling cycle participation. When the gold price is in the middle position, be cautious in chasing orders and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
Recommendations from a team of professional and experienced gold analysts Gold operation strategy:
1. Short-selling at the 2758-2760 line of gold rebound, stop loss 2768, target 2735-2725 line;
Trade active
Gold is currently fluctuating slightly around the previously predicted resistance level of 2758-2760, but there is no sign of a pullback for the time being.
Judging from the current data, gold still has the possibility of upward impact, and it is still relatively large. The bears have not shown any signs of strength yet, so short selling is not allowed at this time, so it is best to wait patiently. It is currently bullish, but at the same time, it is not allowed to chase the rise. Traders are now paying close attention to the short-term pressure level of the previous high of 2764-2770.
Trade closed: target reached
The latest gold trend analysis on January 29
In the European market on Wednesday (January 29), the price of gold came under slight pressure and failed to continue the upward trend of the previous day. However, the downside space for gold prices seems to be limited to a certain extent, and the US Treasury yields fell again, which may provide support for gold.
In addition, concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans may also limit the decline in gold prices. Trump's tariff policy may cause certain uncertainty in global trade and the economy. This uncertainty often prompts the market to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, thereby providing certain support for gold prices.
At present, the market is cautious about the Fed's interest rate hike path. The market seems unwilling to make aggressive bets, but chooses to wait and see, waiting for more guidance on the Fed's monetary policy. Therefore, the focus will be on the results of the upcoming Fed monetary policy meeting. This important Fed decision will have an important impact on the short-term trend of the US dollar and provide a certain impetus to commodity markets such as gold, which may become an important guide for the next trend of gold prices.
Technical interpretation:
From a technical perspective, gold prices recently broke through the $2720-2725 level, which was once a resistance range for prices and now becomes a support level. If gold prices break through the $2772-2773 area, this will further confirm the upward momentum of gold prices and may push gold to break through the $2786 area (this is the highest point since October 2024 and close to the historical high, close to the $2790 area). If prices can further break through $2800, it may trigger new upward momentum and pave the way for gold prices to continue the upward trend of the past month or so.
However, if gold prices fall below the short-term support range of $2755-2753, it may attract some buying, but the decline may be limited, at least stopping near this week's low (around the $2730 area). If the price of gold falls below the resistance-turned-support area of $2725-2720, it may lead to further downside, pushing the price down to the $2707-2705 area, and may continue to fall to the $2684 area.
Future Outlook
The trend of gold prices will be affected by multiple factors. First, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be key. If the Federal Reserve continues to maintain an accommodative policy, it may further depress the US dollar and support the rise in gold prices. Especially in the context of heightened global economic uncertainty, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset will gradually increase. In addition, Trump's tariff policy may also provide support for gold.
Technically, if gold breaks through the $2772-2773 area, it may further push gold to higher price levels, especially after breaking through $2800, it may trigger new upward momentum and continue the recent upward trend. However, if the price falls below key support levels (such as the $2725-2720 range), there may be some adjustments, and the price may fall back to around $2700.
Gold was still in line with expectations yesterday. We did not look at a reversal, but treated it as an adjustment. Only when the daily line is continuously negative and falls below the upward trend line can it be a turning point. Yesterday's operation was relatively strong, and finally closed with a bald positive line. Today, we continue to treat it as a decline and then long. The daily support moved up to 2740. If it fluctuates, we will rely on this position to do more. In the 4H cycle, the rise broke through the middle track, but there is no sign of opening. Therefore, it is treated as a fluctuating and long idea during the day. In the 1H cycle, the support is around 2751. In terms of intraday operations, it falls back and relies on support to go long, and then look at 2765 and 2772!
Today's short-term operation suggestions from the professional and senior gold analyst team:
Gold falls back to 2750 and goes long, stop loss 2742, target 2765, 2772!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.