I. Analysis of core driving factors
Impact of liquidity run
China's 34% counter-tariff on the United States triggered a global sell-off of risky assets, triggering a cross-market chain reaction. In order to meet the margin requirements of assets such as stocks, investors were forced to reduce their gold positions, forming an "asset rebalancing" selling pressure.
This phenomenon has a similar logic to the "dollar shortage" that caused the gold price to plummet in the early stage of the epidemic in March 2020, but this time it may last for a shorter period of time.
Dual effect of non-agricultural data
Exceeding expectations of employment growth: 228,000 new jobs strengthened the narrative of "US economic resilience" and weakened the demand for safe havens.
Slowing wage growth: The cooling signs of the hourly wage rate of 3.8% per year may ease market concerns about the second rise in inflation and reduce the anti-inflation premium of gold.
Technical resonance with sentiment
Profit-taking after the historical high of $3,168 and the programmed selling of CTA strategies formed a positive feedback, exacerbating the decline.
2. In-depth analysis of key price levels
Cycle Support Resistance Technical Signals
Daily 3000 (psychological barrier) 3055 (previous low conversion) Bollinger middle rail lost
4H 3015 (Fibonacci 38.2%) 3068 (MA20 suppression) Downward channel established
Weekly 2975 (5-week moving average) 3080 (double top neckline) MACD top divergence prototype
Special form warning:
The double top structure formed by 3135-3080 points to the 3020-3000 area
If the 3000 barrier is lost, it may trigger algorithmic trading chain selling
3. Multi-dimensional trading strategy
1. Basic scenario (probability 60%): Maintain fluctuations in the 3000-3060 range
Asian session: 3015-3020 light long orders, stop loss 3007, target 3040
European session: 3052-3055 reverse short orders, stop loss 3063, target 3025
2. Breakthrough scenario (probability 30%):
Break above 3068: Go long after stepping back to 3058, stop loss 3049, target 3080-3090
Break below 3000: Rebound to 3012 short, stop loss 3020, target 2980-2975
3. Hedging strategy:
Buy 3040 put options (strike price 3000), and sell 3060 call options at the same time
IV. Monitoring of institutional trends
Changes in open interest of COMEX gold futures show that most of the new long positions above 3160 have been stopped
The daily outflow of gold ETF (GLD) hit the largest level since March, but the implied volatility of forward options is still high
V. Cross-market correlation indicators
Real yield of US Treasury bonds: If it rises above 2%, it will increase the pressure on gold
VIX index: needs to be closed Pay attention to whether it continues to be above the 20 threshold
Copper-gold ratio: The current trend suggests that the market risk appetite has not completely deteriorated
Six, warning of major events next week
Wednesday: US CPI data (key inflation verification)
Thursday: Fed March meeting minutes (pay attention to the statement of balance sheet reduction)
Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (inflation expectations sub-item)
Operation suggestions:
Position control within 5%, set a hard stop loss every 50 points
Prioritize the London gold period (15:00-17:00 GMT) with good liquidity
If there is a flash crash below 2970, you can arrange a 3% position mid-line long order
Special attention: The current market is in a "news sensitive period", it is recommended to use OCO orders (two-choice commission) to deal with sudden fluctuations. The technical side is bearish but oversold, and it is necessary to guard against the risk of retaliatory rebound.
Trade active
Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
1. News analysis: Trade policies and risk aversion demand dominate gold prices
The US "reciprocal tariff" policy is approaching
The Office of the United States Trade Representative released the "National Trade Estimates Report" to provide a basis for the upcoming "reciprocal tariff" policy, marking a new stage in US trade policy.
If the policy is implemented, it may lead to an escalation of global trade frictions, increase market risk aversion, and drive funds into gold.
The risk aversion logic of gold
Impact of the US dollar trend: If trade tensions lead to a weakening of the US dollar, the dollar-denominated advantage of gold will be enhanced; conversely, a rebound in the US dollar may suppress gold prices.
Central bank gold purchase expectations: If many countries adopt retaliatory tariffs, the US dollar's reserve status may be challenged, and some central banks may increase their holdings of gold to hedge risks and provide long-term support.
Global economic concerns: If the trade war drags down global growth, the safe-haven properties of gold will be further highlighted.
Short-term risk warning
Be wary of the pullback caused by long profit-taking, especially after gold prices have continuously refreshed historical highs.
2. Technical analysis: Falling from highs, short-term shock correction may occur
Weekly level
Although the strong non-agricultural data caused the gold price to fall nearly $100 from the high of 3150, the price is still above the MA5 moving average, indicating that the overall trend has not completely turned bearish.
The current pattern shows that the upward trend is limited, and the shock correction pattern may be maintained this week.
Daily level
Key support lost: The gold price fell below the MA20 moving average, and the short-term moving average (such as MA5 and MA10) began to turn downward, forming suppression.
Technical indicators weakened: MACD formed a dead cross and a top divergence signal appeared, suggesting that the risk of a callback increased, and the key support below looked at the psychological level of 3000.
Operation strategy: It is recommended to sell high and buy low, focusing on the breakthrough of resistance and support levels.
3. Short-term operation ideas
Main strategy: Shorting at high rebounds is the main strategy, and longing at lows is the auxiliary strategy.
Upper resistance: 3035-3045 area (if the rebound does not break, you can try to short).
Support below: 2980-2970 area (after stabilization, you can try to go long with a light position).
Risk warning:
If the trade policy trend exceeds expectations, it may cause sharp fluctuations in gold prices and strict stop loss is required.
Pay attention to the trend of the US dollar index and changes in global market sentiment.
IV. Summary
The current gold market is in a game stage between risk aversion and technical correction:
Medium and long term: Trade policy uncertainty, central bank gold purchases and global economic risks still support gold.
Short term: Technical adjustment pressure is evident, and we need to be alert to the risk of falling from highs.
Investors should respond flexibly based on news dynamics and technical signals to seize trading opportunities in volatile markets.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.