Core driving factors of the gold market
Supported by risk aversion, the Trump administration announced a 10% benchmark tariff on the world (effective on April 5) and imposed higher tariffs on countries with large trade deficits (effective on April 9), which triggered market concerns about the escalation of global trade frictions. Risk aversion demand is still an important support for gold prices. If the details of subsequent tariff policies or countermeasures of various countries intensify, it may further push up the safe-haven buying of gold.
Weakened US dollar and US Treasury yields
The US dollar index fell to a new low this year, and US Treasury yields fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is good for gold prices. However, we need to be wary of the rebound of the US dollar that may be triggered by non-agricultural data exceeding expectations.
Technical pullback pressure
Gold prices showed short-term overbought signals after hitting a record high, and some longs took profits and caused a pullback, but the overall trend is still strong.
Key technical signals
4-hour level: high range oscillation, moving average adhesion and flattening, short-term direction needs to be confirmed by breakthrough.
1-hour level:
The moving average is in a golden cross and is in a bullish arrangement, but the rebound strength after breaking the short-term moving average support is still good, indicating that buying is still active.
Key support: 3115-3105 (this week's low point lifts the trend line), if it holds, it will remain bullish; if it falls below 3100, it may further pull back to 3080.
Key resistance: 3140-3150 (previous high and psychological barrier), it may challenge 3200 after breaking through.
Operation strategy suggestions
Short-term bullish opportunities
Entry area: 3115-3105 interval stabilizes (such as K-line pin bar, other reversal signals).
Target: 3140→3150, after breaking through, you can hold and look at 3180-3200.
Stop loss: below 3100 (avoid the risk of false breakthrough).
Short-term short-term opportunities (caution)
Entry conditions: rebound to 3140-3150 under pressure (need to cooperate with RSI overbought or negative line confirmation).
Target: 3120→3115.
Stop loss: above 3155.
Mid-term layout
If the gold price pulls back to the 3100-3080 area (expectation of Fed rate cut + risk aversion double support), you can arrange long orders in batches, stop loss 3070, target 3200+.
Risk warning
Non-agricultural data disturbance: If the US non-agricultural employment report on Friday (April 5) is strong, it may strengthen the Fed's expectation of delaying rate cuts, which is bearish for gold in the short term.
Tariff policy dynamics: Pay attention to the countermeasures of various countries against the United States and changes in market sentiment. Sudden news may cause violent fluctuations.
Summary: Gold needs to repair overbought in the short term technical aspect, but the fundamental support is strong. The operation is mainly to do more in the callback, arrange near the key support level, and strictly stop loss. If it falls below 3100, the trend needs to be re-evaluated.
Trade active
Core driving factors:Tariff policy countdown: Very reliable The 10% base tariff signed on April 2 will take effect on April 5. Combined with the impact of automobile tariffs (25%) on the global supply chain, market concerns about inflation (expected to rise to 3.5%) and economic recession continue to ferment. The EU has launched a retaliatory tariff plan, which may further boost the safe-haven demand for gold.
Geopolitical escalation: The situation in the Middle East continues to be tense. The US military deployed 6 B-2 stealth bombers to the Diego Garcia base and formed a double aircraft carrier strike group in the Red Sea; the Shandong ship confronted the USS Carl Vinson in the Taiwan Strait, and the geopolitical risk premium provided support for gold prices.
Central bank gold buying boom: Global central banks will net buy 1,045 tons of gold in 2024, and China's gold reserves account for only 6.58%, with a theoretical reserve increase of more than 6,000 tons. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased to 931.94 tons, a three-year high, indicating that institutional funds continued to flow in.
2. In-depth analysis of technical aspects
Trend and structure:
Monthly level: After the gold price hit a record high of $3,167, it formed a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, and the measured increase pointed to $3,200-3,300. Fibonacci extension levels show that $2250/2480/3200 constitutes a golden channel and is currently in the main uptrend stage of the third wave.
Daily level: The Bollinger Band opening expanded to $120 (upper rail 3,175, lower rail 3,055), the RSI indicator was overbought (72) but no top divergence appeared, and the MACD red column continued to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Key points:
Support level: $3,050 (Daily Bollinger Band middle rail + Fibonacci retracement level).
Resistance levels: $3,170 (historical high), $3,200 (integer level + weekly RSI critical value).
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.