🔥 XAU/USD - Heavy Fall or Heavy Rise ? (READ THE CAPTION)
Updated
Upon reviewing the gold chart on the daily timeframe, we observe that as expected, gold continued its rise up to $2140 yesterday and then underwent a price correction, dropping to the $2122 range! Now, the price is once again gathering the necessary strength for a further ascent and is currently trading around $2132. Note that the upcoming supply zone for the price is between $2135 to $2140, and we will have to see what reaction we get once the price reaches this zone! Today, there are significant news events in the market that could cause severe fluctuations in the price! These important news events are, in order, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Fed Chair Powell Testifies, and JOLTS Job Openings.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Its Impact on Forex Market and Gold Price :
• The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This data is released two days ahead of government data and is considered a good predictor of the government's non-farm payroll report.
**Impact on Forex Market**
• The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change can have a substantial impact on the forex market. A higher than expected reading is taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading is taken as negative/bearish for the USD¹¹. This is because job creation is a vital indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the overall economic activity¹.
**Impact on Gold Price**
• The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change also affects the gold price. When the data is stronger than expected, indicating a robust economy, it leads to a stronger dollar. This reduces the demand for gold, causing a decline in its price. Conversely, when the data is weaker than expected, people start worrying and begin to shift their funds to safe-haven assets such as gold.
However, it's important to note that the relationship between the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and gold price is more significant in the short run. In the long run, there's no clear correlation between them.
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Its Impact on Forex Market and Gold Price :
• The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This data is released two days ahead of government data and is considered a good predictor of the government's non-farm payroll report.
**Impact on Forex Market**
• The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change can have a substantial impact on the forex market. A higher than expected reading is taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading is taken as negative/bearish for the USD¹¹. This is because job creation is a vital indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the overall economic activity¹.
**Impact on Gold Price**
• The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change also affects the gold price. When the data is stronger than expected, indicating a robust economy, it leads to a stronger dollar. This reduces the demand for gold, causing a decline in its price. Conversely, when the data is weaker than expected, people start worrying and begin to shift their funds to safe-haven assets such as gold.
However, it's important to note that the relationship between the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and gold price is more significant in the short run. In the long run, there's no clear correlation between them.
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Note
By checking the gold chart in the daily time frame, we see that the price is still rising and does not show any signs of price correction! Preferably, it is better to wait to see where this trend ends and we have to wait for its price to be corrected! Tomorrow we will have the NFP statistics and we have to see if this statistic will bring the price above $2200 or if we have to witness a heavy price drop to below $2050! Personally, I will not have a position on gold until the end of tomorrow and I will wait for signs of a change in the trend!
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