1. Core driving factors: Risk aversion dominates the market
Geopolitical risks escalate, and Trump's tough stance on Iran and Russia exacerbates market uncertainty, and funds flow into gold for risk aversion. Concerns about the global trade war continue: The new US tariff policy may trigger a chain reaction, pushing up inflation expectations and risk aversion demand.
Economic Data and Policy Expectation
Key events this week: Wednesday (April 3): Progress in the implementation of global trade tariffs. If the conflict escalates, it will be positive for gold. Friday (April 5): US non-farm payrolls report. If the data is weak, it may strengthen the Fed's expectations of rate cuts, further supporting gold prices. Other data (ISM PMI, ADP employment, etc.) may consolidate gold's safe-haven status if they show an economic slowdown.
2. Key technical signals
Weekly level
Four consecutive positive structures: bulls are completely dominant, the moving average is perfectly arranged, and the MACD golden cross continues.
Key resistance: $3,100 is a psychological barrier, and after breaking through, it may open up to $3,200.
Daily level
Strong moving average support: short-term moving averages (such as the 5th and 10th) are far away from the current price, so you need to be wary of technical callbacks.
The watershed between bulls and bears: $3,100 has become a short-term strength indicator, and if it falls below, it may fall back to the 3050-3030 support area.
Bull-bear watershed: $3,100 has become a short-term strength and weakness sign. If it fails, it may pull back to the 3050-3030 support zone.
III. Short Opportunities:
When it rebounds to 3135-3140, it will be short-term under pressure, with a target of 3110 and a stop loss above 3145.
Risk warning: Be wary of fluctuations caused by profit-taking in the market before non-agricultural data. If the geopolitical situation eases (such as Trump's softening statement), it may trigger a rapid correction in gold prices.
IV. Summary
Trend direction: The medium- and long-term bullish pattern remains unchanged, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the battle for the 3100 mark.
Key points:
Support: 3100 (psychological position), 3080 (previous high point), 3050 (strong support).
Resistance: 3140 (intraday), 3160 (extended target), 3200 (integer mark).
Investors are advised to flexibly adjust their positions based on the time of data release and strictly stop losses!
Trade active
Technical analysis of gold: Gold's rally has expanded. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen by 18.96%. Due to the uncertainty in the financial market, this upward trend may continue. Although the relative strength index (RSI) is in an overbought state, traders should be aware that due to the aggressiveness of this trend, the most extreme level is 3180. The next resistance level for gold prices will be the psychological level of $3150/ounce. If this target is broken, gold prices will target $3200/ounce. It should be emphasized that there are many factors affecting the market this week. On Wednesday, there will be tariffs, small non-agricultural ADP data, and on Friday, non-agricultural data. The market changes greatly and the risks are relatively large. Everyone should pay attention to avoid risks and make effective transactions.
After the gold price fell back, it hit a new high again. The gold bulls continued to be strong. From the daily K-line, the stochastic indicator showed a state of golden cross after passivation, and the double lines of the MACD indicator also diverged upward after the fall. Both of these two technical indicators released obvious main multi-signals. At the same time, in terms of the K-line pattern, the price is temporarily in a rising trend, and the overall pattern is also bullish. Looking at the 4-hour K-line, the stochastic indicator is in a state of horizontal operation after being blunted, and it is difficult to determine the direction for the time being; however, once a golden cross appears, there is a high probability that a strong trend will break through the top and create a new high. The two lines of the MACD indicator are in a bonded and upward state, and are still bullish. The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to diverge upward. The support of the 1-hour moving average of gold has moved up to the 3096 line. However, gold is now far away from the moving average. So wait patiently for the adjustment and then step back and continue to go long. The 1-hour gold dropped to a low of around 3100 yesterday and then stabilized again. So today gold will continue to go long on dips above 3100.
So today, gold will continue to go long on dips above 3100. On the whole, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends that the short-term operation of gold today is mainly based on callbacks and shorting on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3150-3160 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3120-3110 support.
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest gold trend on 4.2
US President Trump plans to announce on April 2 that he will impose comprehensive tariffs on countries with trade imbalances with the United States, which has spawned a large amount of safe-haven buying, helping gold prices to continue to rise, but near the last moment, some bulls took profits in advance.
On the daily level, gold started the downward adjustment mode on Tuesday, breaking the previous continuous rise in one fell swoop. However, the current moving average system still maintains an upward divergent trend. Today, the focus is on whether the market decline is sustainable. First of all, we need to pay attention to the support effect of the short-term moving average MA5. The current position of the moving average is roughly around 3098, which is very close to the low point of 3100 yesterday. If this support level can be maintained, gold can still be regarded as a strong pattern in the short term.
The 4-hour level trend is temporarily maintained in a high range of oscillation repair. At present, the short-term moving average is basically in a state of adhesion and flatness, and it tends to continue to maintain a high-level oscillation repair trend during the day. Gold's 1-hour moving average is still a golden cross with upward bullish arrangement. Although gold has fallen below the moving average support, the strength of gold bulls to bottom out and rebound is still relatively strong. In addition, with the support of gold's safe haven, gold bulls are still better. As long as it does not break 3100, it will continue to be bullish. Intraday operations will continue to be bullish. Intraday support will focus on the gains and losses of yesterday's low of 3100. In the short term, focus on the resistance of 3140-3150.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.