Summary of Gold 4-hour Chart Trading Strategy (Oscillating Convergence Phase)
Key Patterns and Trends
Technical Patterns:
Bollinger Bands close, price fluctuation range shrinks (3275-3340).
Potential Convergence Triangle: Highs move down, lows move up, waiting for the direction of breakthrough.
Current range: 3275 (support) - 3340 (resistance), short-term focus on 3320-3330 resistance & 3275-3265 support.
Trading Strategy (Cautious Operation Before Non-agricultural)
1. High-altitude within the range
Entry point: 3320-3330 (close to the upper track, stagflation signals such as K-line reversal, overbought indicators).
Stop loss: above 3340 (invalid if breakthrough).
Target: 3275-3265 (take profit in batches).
2. Follow up short orders after breaking support
Confirmation conditions: 4-hour closing price falls below 3275, and Bollinger Band opening widens.
Adding position strategy: chasing short to 3250-3230, stop loss 3285.
3. Short-term low-long (strict risk control is required against the trend)
Condition: first touch 3275-3265 + RSI oversold (<30) or rebound quickly.
Stop loss: below 3260, target 3300-3310 (quick in and out).
Non-agricultural data impact & weekly key points
Before non-agricultural:
Maintain the idea of shock, light position operation, avoid placing orders before the data (slippage risk).
Weekly closing:
If it closes negative: next week may further explore 3230-3200.
If it breaks through 3340: observe whether it can stand firm at 3350 (long signal).
Key points for implementation
Main strategy: If the price rebounds to 3320-3330, you can look for opportunities to try short selling, with a stop loss of 3340 and a target of 3275-3265.
Breakout follow-up: Go short if it breaks below 3275, and wait and see if it will go long if it breaks above 3340.
Risk control: Single stop loss ≤ 2% of position, reduce position before non-agricultural data.
Trade active
Analysis of the latest gold trend on May 1：
Key price levels
Bull-bear watershed: 3260-3265
Price < 3260: Keep a bearish mindset, and try shorting when the rebound is under pressure.
Price ≥ 3265: Turn to a bullish signal, and consider long orders after stabilization.
Resistance level: 3265 (key breakthrough level)
Support range: 3222 (secondary support) → 3192 (strong support)
Current operation suggestions
Avoid chasing shorts:
The price is close to the support range (3192-3222), and the space below may be limited, so the risk of chasing shorts is high.
If you don’t hold a position, it is recommended to wait and see; if you hold a short position, you can consider taking partial profit near the support level.
Bull opportunities waiting:
Conditions: The price rebounds above 3265 and stabilizes.
Strategy: Try long with a light position, and set the stop loss at 100-150PIPS below 3265, and look to the previous high or higher resistance.
Risk of China's market closure:
Insufficient liquidity may cause price gaps, especially pay attention to the trend of European and American markets.
It is recommended to reduce positions or postpone opening new orders to avoid the risk of sudden fluctuations.
Additional technical considerations
If it directly breaks below 3192:
Observe whether there is a rapid rebound. If there is no rebound after breaking, it may open up downward space, but it needs to be judged in combination with the trend of European and American markets.
If it fluctuates between 3222-3265:
Stay on the sidelines and wait for the range to break before following up.
Summary of strategy
Conservatives: Wait and see throughout the process, and wait until liquidity is restored next Tuesday before operating.
Radicals:
Short short below 3265 (need to stop profit quickly);
Long orders after stabilization above 3265 (strict stop loss).
Trade closed: target reached
The wave-shaped space of gold in the 4-hour chart broke open. Yesterday, it was shorted twice in a row at 3320 and 3315. After the second pullback in the late trading, it was under pressure to recover the low position, accumulating the potential to break. Today's Asian morning opening opened directly to break the position. At present, it has broken through the low point of 3270-3260, and the top and bottom have changed. The 1-hour level has fallen below the last low near 3260, and the bears are better. The 1-hour moving average has also crossed below to form a dead cross. Gold bears still have momentum, and the rebound is to continue to give opportunities to shorts. Now the 3270 line, a densely traded area below the recent box rebound, continues to be short. If gold rebounds weakly and cannot even touch the previous low near 3260, then it is an extremely weak market, and there will be more room for gold to fall. Gold's rebound means it will continue to be short. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold recommends shorting mainly on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The top short-term focus will be on the first-line resistance of 3235-3245, and the bottom short-term will focus on the first-line support of 3200-3190.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+YpPhxSuL0es5ZDE1
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+YpPhxSuL0es5ZDE1
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.