1. News analysis: long and short factors are intertwined, and the market focuses on US inflation data
Negative factors: The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses gold prices
Due to the risk aversion sentiment in the market caused by the comprehensive imposition of tariffs by the United States, funds flowed into the US dollar in the short term, causing gold to be under pressure.
Fed Chairman Powell did not clearly release a signal of interest rate cuts. The market's expectations for a rate cut in May fell to 57%, and the probability of a rate cut in June is still high (95 basis points are expected to be cut throughout the year).
Potential support: Concerns about economic recession still exist, and the long-term bullish logic of gold has not changed
Global economic uncertainty (geopolitics, trade frictions) still supports the safe-haven demand for gold.
If the US CPI (Thursday) and PPI (Friday) data this week are lower than expected, it may re-strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is good for gold.
2. Technical analysis: The adjustment has not yet ended, pay attention to key support and rebound signals
Big cycle trend: Still in a bullish pattern, currently a technical correction
Gold has fallen from a high of 3168 to 2956, a large drop, but it has not destroyed the long-term upward trend.
If the adjustment is in place (2920-2910 area), the upward trend may still be restarted; on the contrary, if it falls below 2900, it may enter a deeper correction.
Short-term trend: Pay attention to whether the 2956 low point forms a bottom
Daily level: After three consecutive large negative lines, the market has a rebound demand. If it closes positive on Tuesday, it may confirm a short-term stop; if it continues to close negative, it may drop to 2920-2910.
4-hour level: Currently rebounding near 2956, if it breaks through 3015 (short-term resistance), it may test the key pressure zone of 3035-3055; if it is blocked and falls back, it may test the support of 2970-2980 again.
3. Key trading points and strategies
Support level:
Short-term: 2970-2980 (near Tuesday's low)
Key: 2956 (recent low), if it falls below, look down to 2920-2910.
Resistance level:
Short-term: 3015 (4-hour level suppression)
Key: 3035-3055 (breakthrough or confirm the end of adjustment, start a new round of rise).
Operation strategy:
Short-term (intraday):
Rebound short: 3025-3035 interval light position short, stop loss above 3040, target 2980-2970.
Callback long: 2970-2980 stabilizes and can try long orders, stop loss below 2960, target 3015-3025.
Mid-term layout:
If the gold price stabilizes above 3055, or pulls back to 2920-2910 to stabilize, you can consider arranging long orders in batches, with a target of 3160-3200.
IV. Risk warning
Impact of CPI data: If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may further suppress expectations of interest rate cuts, resulting in pressure on gold.
Dollar trend: If the dollar continues to strengthen, gold may continue to adjust.
Conclusion
Gold is currently in the adjustment stage, short-term bearish but there is a possibility of rebound. In terms of trading, it is recommended to short at the rebound high and long at the key support low, focusing on the breakthrough of the 2956-3055 range. Medium and long-term investors can wait for clearer bottom signals (such as 2920 support or 3055 breakthrough) before making arrangements.
(Note: The market fluctuates greatly, it is recommended to strictly stop loss and respond flexibly.
Trade active
Gold daily level: Before yesterday's U.S. market, the sun had originally formed close to the mid-rail 3025 line, but unfortunately it was dragged down by U.S. stocks and suppressed the decline, closing at a long upper shadow K. This K line is tempting, and many people will think that it will not be able to hold 295 today. 6. The negative pressure was suppressed again, but the result was that it did not continue the overnight decline, and directly pulled up the strong positive light. It has now broken through and stood on the middle track, and at the same time stood on the MA5-day resistance of 3030; if the closing line still maintains this form in late trading, it will have the potential to further rise tomorrow;
Golden 4-hour level: Assuming that 2956 has become the short-term bottom low, then from the golden section of 2956-3167, the Dayang line has stood above the dividing resistance of 3037, and has stood on the middle track. There is a high probability that it will go up again today, pay attention to the 50 dividing resistance of 3062, and forcefully suppress the 618 dividing resistance of 3086;
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.