1. News analysis: Bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, gold is under pressure but safe-haven support is still there
The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses gold prices
Trade optimism boosts the US dollar: The progress of negotiations between the United States and major trading partners (such as China and India) has eased market concerns about tariff escalation, and the recovery of risk appetite has driven demand for the US dollar, and the attractiveness of gold as an interest-free asset has declined.
Focus on US economic data: If this week's "super week" data (ADP, initial jobless claims, non-agricultural) performs strongly, it may further strengthen the Fed's expectations of suspending interest rate cuts, which is bearish for gold.
Geopolitical risk aversion supports gold prices
India-Pakistan conflict escalates: Geopolitical tensions (such as the Kashmir issue) may limit the decline of gold, and we need to pay close attention to the evolution of events.
Trump's softening policy toward China: If the China-US trade agreement achieves a breakthrough, it may be bearish for gold in the short term; but if there are new variables, risk aversion will return quickly.
Market sentiment is contradictory
Despite the strengthening of the US dollar, the gold daily line closed with a "hammer line", showing strong buying support below, indicating that the bears have not completely controlled the market.
2. Technical analysis: range oscillation to be broken through, pay attention to key positions
Daily level
Form: high-level hammer small positive line, suggesting bull resistance, but the 3360-3370 area forms a double top suppression, and we need to be alert to the risk of peaking.
Key position:
Support: 3260-3268 (multi-bottom support), 3300 (psychological barrier).
Resistance: 3325-3330 (Bollinger middle rail), 3360-3370 (double top).
4-hour level
Range oscillation: Gold prices are in a wide range of 3260-3370, and the short-term direction needs to be confirmed by a breakthrough.
Bollinger band signal:
The middle rail 3325 is the watershed of intraday strength and weakness. If the rebound is blocked here, you can try a short order.
If the lower rail 3300 falls below, it may test the support of 3285-3260.
Hourly level
Short-term trend: After rebounding to 3325 on Tuesday, it fell back, indicating that there is selling pressure at this position. If the attack fails again, the shorts may dominate the short-term trend.
3. Operation strategy: sell high and buy low, keep a close eye on the breakthrough
Intraday short-term (conservative)
Short on rebound
Entry: 3325-3330 (Bollinger middle rail + previous high resistance).
Target: 3300→3285, break to see 3260.
Stop loss: above 3335.
Long on callback
Entry: around 3300 (previous low support), give up if it breaks down quickly.
Target: 3320-3325.
Stop loss: below 3290.
Mid-term layout (breakthrough and follow)
Break above 3370: chase long, target 3400-3420, stop loss 3350.
Break below 3260: chase short, target 3220-3200, stop loss 3280.
IV. Risk warning
Data risk: This week's US employment data (especially non-agricultural) may cause violent fluctuations. It is recommended to lighten positions or wait and see before the data.
Geopolitical events: India-Pakistan conflict and sudden news of Sino-US trade negotiations may reverse short-term trends.
Liquidity risk: Thin trading during Asian hours (such as Chinese holidays) may amplify fluctuations, so position management needs to be prudent.
Trade active
Summary of Gold 4-hour Chart Trading Strategy (Oscillating Convergence Phase)
Key Patterns and Trends
Technical Patterns:
Bollinger Bands close, price fluctuation range shrinks (3275-3340).
Potential Convergence Triangle: Highs move down, lows move up, waiting for the direction of breakthrough.
Current range: 3275 (support) - 3340 (resistance), short-term focus on 3320-3330 resistance & 3275-3265 support.
Trading Strategy (Cautious Operation Before Non-agricultural)
1. High-altitude within the range
Entry point: 3320-3330 (close to the upper track, stagflation signals such as K-line reversal, overbought indicators).
Stop loss: above 3340 (invalid if breakthrough).
Target: 3275-3265 (take profit in batches).
2. Follow up short orders after breaking support
Confirmation conditions: 4-hour closing price falls below 3275, and Bollinger Band opening widens.
Adding position strategy: chasing short to 3250-3230, stop loss 3285.
3. Short-term low-long (strict risk control is required against the trend)
Condition: first touch 3275-3265 + RSI oversold (<30) or rebound quickly.
Stop loss: below 3260, target 3300-3310 (quick in and out).
Non-agricultural data impact & weekly key points
Before non-agricultural:
Maintain the idea of shock, light position operation, avoid placing orders before the data (slippage risk).
Weekly closing:
If it closes negative: next week may further explore 3230-3200.
If it breaks through 3340: observe whether it can stand firm at 3350 (long signal).
Key points for implementation
Main strategy: If the price rebounds to 3320-3330, you can look for opportunities to try short selling, with a stop loss of 3340 and a target of 3275-3265.
Breakout follow-up: Go short if it breaks below 3275, and wait and see if it will go long if it breaks above 3340.
Risk control: Single stop loss ≤ 2% of position, reduce position before non-agricultural data.
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🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
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🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+YpPhxSuL0es5ZDE1
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.