Current market background
Gold has recently been driven by geopolitical tensions (such as escalation of tariff wars) and risk aversion, and has experienced extreme fluctuations. It has soared by nearly $200 in two trading days, with a single-day increase of more than $100, reaching a record high of 3174. The technical and emotional aspects resonate, and the market has entered an extremely crazy stage.
Technical analysis
1. Daily level
Key phenomenon:
A rare huge positive line was closed, directly breaking through MA5 (3030-40) and MA10, and continued to rise to 3174 in the morning, with strong bullish momentum.
The previous three-day correction was quickly reversed, forming a "bottoming out and rising" pattern. If the sentiment continues, the next target will point to the 3200 mark.
Focus:
Overbought risk: The short-term increase is too large, and we need to be wary of technical corrections or corrections caused by news reversals.
Tariff war trends: If the situation eases, gold may fall back quickly; if it escalates, it will push prices further up.
2. 4-hour/1-hour level
Bull signal:
The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement (golden cross), and the support moves up to the 3136-3140 area. It may rise again after a short-term pullback.
If it breaks through the 3185-3190 resistance, it will accelerate the test above 3200.
Risk warning:
Volatility intensifies near the historical high, avoid blindly chasing more, and wait for the pullback stabilization signal.
Operation strategy
Intraday short-term
Bull opportunity:
Entry area: 3140-3136 support range, go long in batches after stabilization (such as 1-hour K-line closing positive or lower shadow confirmation).
Target: 3185-3190, look at 3200+ after breaking through.
Stop loss: below 3120 (to prevent false breakthroughs).
Short opportunities:
Aggressive strategy: Try shorting with a light position when it touches 3185-3190 for the first time, stop loss 3205, target 3160-3150.
Conservative advice: Short positions at high levels need to be combined with news of the tariff war, and can only be participated if the situation eases.
Risk control focus
Position management: Reduce the position of a single transaction to 1/2 of the regular position to cope with extreme fluctuations.
Avoidance period: Avoid the peak of liquidity in the early stage of the US market to prevent flash crashes or sharp rises.
Key points
Support: 3136-3140 (strength and weakness boundary), 3100 (psychological barrier).
Resistance: 3185-3190, 3200 (integer barrier).
Summary
Gold is currently dominated by emotions, and the technical side is subject to the fundamentals. In terms of operation, it is mainly to go long on callbacks, strictly stop losses, and avoid heavy position gambling. If there is a sign of easing in the tariff war, it is necessary to decisively exit long positions. Pay attention to the breakthrough direction of the 3140-3190 range during the day and follow the trend.
Note: The above analysis is based on the current market environment. If there is a sudden major news during the trading session (such as changes in tariff policies, statements by the Federal Reserve), the strategy needs to be adjusted in time.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.