Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical & Fundamental Analysis
🔹 Technical Analysis
Current Price: $3,240.39
Trend Context: Gold remains in a broad ascending channel, with price action currently consolidating below all-time highs (ATH). The structure remains bullish unless key support levels are decisively broken.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance Zones:
$3,339 – Monthly resistance zone
$3,500 – Psychological round number
$3,608 – All-Time High (ATH) extension zone
Support Zones:
$3,197 – Daily trendline support
$2,957 – Monthly support and key demand zone
Price Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (Green Path):
A successful hold above $3,197 and a break above $3,339 would likely trigger a retest of $3,500, with potential for continuation toward $3,608, supported by macro fundamentals.
Bearish Scenario (Red Path):
A break below $3,197 may lead to further downside toward the $3,000–$2,957 zone. Failure to hold that support could signal a deeper corrective phase within the broader uptrend.
🔹 Fundamental Analysis
1. U.S. Monetary Policy:
Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in late 2025 continue to support gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
2. Inflation & Economic Outlook:
Persistently elevated inflation and concerns of a potential economic slowdown or recession are keeping investor interest in gold high as a hedge against uncertainty.
3. Geopolitical Risk:
Geopolitical instability in regions such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East maintains a steady flow of safe-haven demand, adding support to gold.
4. Central Bank Demand:
Robust gold purchases by global central banks—especially from emerging markets—are strengthening long-term bullish sentiment.
🔹 Technical Analysis
Current Price: $3,240.39
Trend Context: Gold remains in a broad ascending channel, with price action currently consolidating below all-time highs (ATH). The structure remains bullish unless key support levels are decisively broken.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance Zones:
$3,339 – Monthly resistance zone
$3,500 – Psychological round number
$3,608 – All-Time High (ATH) extension zone
Support Zones:
$3,197 – Daily trendline support
$2,957 – Monthly support and key demand zone
Price Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (Green Path):
A successful hold above $3,197 and a break above $3,339 would likely trigger a retest of $3,500, with potential for continuation toward $3,608, supported by macro fundamentals.
Bearish Scenario (Red Path):
A break below $3,197 may lead to further downside toward the $3,000–$2,957 zone. Failure to hold that support could signal a deeper corrective phase within the broader uptrend.
🔹 Fundamental Analysis
1. U.S. Monetary Policy:
Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in late 2025 continue to support gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
2. Inflation & Economic Outlook:
Persistently elevated inflation and concerns of a potential economic slowdown or recession are keeping investor interest in gold high as a hedge against uncertainty.
3. Geopolitical Risk:
Geopolitical instability in regions such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East maintains a steady flow of safe-haven demand, adding support to gold.
4. Central Bank Demand:
Robust gold purchases by global central banks—especially from emerging markets—are strengthening long-term bullish sentiment.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.