Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Analysis – May 12, 2025
📈 Technical Analysis
🔹 Key Support Zone Holding:
Price is currently reacting at a confluence of Weekly and Daily trendline support, located near the $3,200–$3,220 area.
This zone is critical. As long as it holds, the bullish structure remains valid.
🔹 Bullish Continuation Pattern:
A falling wedge pattern (black trendlines) is forming, which is traditionally a bullish reversal pattern.
A confirmed breakout above the wedge could propel price toward the $3,646 resistance level.
🔹 Scenario Outlooks:
✅ Bullish Scenario (Primary Probability):
Price bounces from the support trendline.
Breakout above the wedge confirms bullish momentum.
Potential target: $3,646.
❌ Bearish Scenario (Contingency):
Breakdown below the $3,200 support area.
Price may retest the lower trendline of the ascending channel.
Potential downside target: $2,910.
🔹 Trend Structure:
The broader trend remains bullish, supported by the rising channel.
Pullbacks are healthy unless price breaks and closes below key structural support.
🌐 Fundamental Analysis
🏦 Federal Reserve Policy Outlook:
Recent Fed statements suggest a dovish tilt as inflation shows signs of cooling.
Any indication of rate cuts or a pause in hikes enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
💵 US Dollar & Treasury Yields:
A weaker USD and declining yields support gold prices.
Watch for any shifts in dollar strength or macroeconomic data surprises.
🌍 Geopolitical Landscape:
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties (e.g., Middle East tensions or potential conflict escalations) continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
🏦 Central Bank Demand:
Continued strong demand from global central banks adds long-term support to gold prices.
📈 Technical Analysis
🔹 Key Support Zone Holding:
Price is currently reacting at a confluence of Weekly and Daily trendline support, located near the $3,200–$3,220 area.
This zone is critical. As long as it holds, the bullish structure remains valid.
🔹 Bullish Continuation Pattern:
A falling wedge pattern (black trendlines) is forming, which is traditionally a bullish reversal pattern.
A confirmed breakout above the wedge could propel price toward the $3,646 resistance level.
🔹 Scenario Outlooks:
✅ Bullish Scenario (Primary Probability):
Price bounces from the support trendline.
Breakout above the wedge confirms bullish momentum.
Potential target: $3,646.
❌ Bearish Scenario (Contingency):
Breakdown below the $3,200 support area.
Price may retest the lower trendline of the ascending channel.
Potential downside target: $2,910.
🔹 Trend Structure:
The broader trend remains bullish, supported by the rising channel.
Pullbacks are healthy unless price breaks and closes below key structural support.
🌐 Fundamental Analysis
🏦 Federal Reserve Policy Outlook:
Recent Fed statements suggest a dovish tilt as inflation shows signs of cooling.
Any indication of rate cuts or a pause in hikes enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
💵 US Dollar & Treasury Yields:
A weaker USD and declining yields support gold prices.
Watch for any shifts in dollar strength or macroeconomic data surprises.
🌍 Geopolitical Landscape:
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties (e.g., Middle East tensions or potential conflict escalations) continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
🏦 Central Bank Demand:
Continued strong demand from global central banks adds long-term support to gold prices.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.