Market Analysis
Dominance of Geopolitical Factors
Iran's successive retaliatory airstrikes against Israel have drastically worsened the Middle East situation, with geopolitical risks surging significantly. Against this backdrop, market uncertainty and panic sentiment have spread rapidly, prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets. As a traditional safe-haven tool, gold has been strongly sought after. **As long as the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, this safe-haven demand will persist, providing solid support for gold prices and driving them higher**. Historical experience shows that similar geopolitical conflicts often lead to significant short-term fluctuations in gold prices—for example, at the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, gold prices rose significantly in a short period.
Influence of Economic Data and Monetary Policy Expectations
U.S. economic data also has an important impact on gold prices. Recent U.S. inflation data has been mild: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by only 0.1% month-on-month in May (lower than the expected 0.2%), and 2.4% year-on-year, triggering a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy by the market . Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have intensified, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing that traders see the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 70% . Once the Fed cuts rates, the U.S. dollar will weaken, and gold, as a non-U.S. dollar asset, will see its price strongly supported.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, after breaking through the key resistance level of $3,400, the gold price is currently fluctuating around $3,433, indicating strong bullish momentum . A new resistance level near $3,450 has formed. If this level can be broken through, the gold price may start a new round of upward trend, attracting more investors to buy. The $3,400 level below has transformed into a key support level. If the price breaks below this support level, it may trigger panic selling in the market, leading to a price correction.
Comprehensive Outlook
Comprehensively considered, in the short term, under the dual influence of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel and the enhanced expectations of Fed rate cuts, the possibility of a rise in gold prices is high. However, it should be noted that the geopolitical situation is uncertain. If there are signs of conflict easing, gold prices may face correction pressure. At the same time, changes in U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy will also have an important impact on gold prices, and investors need to pay close attention to the release of relevant information.
Gold strategy analysis for next week, hope it helps you
XAUUSD BUY@3420~3430
SL:3400
TP1:3440~3450
TP2:3460~3480
Dominance of Geopolitical Factors
Iran's successive retaliatory airstrikes against Israel have drastically worsened the Middle East situation, with geopolitical risks surging significantly. Against this backdrop, market uncertainty and panic sentiment have spread rapidly, prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets. As a traditional safe-haven tool, gold has been strongly sought after. **As long as the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, this safe-haven demand will persist, providing solid support for gold prices and driving them higher**. Historical experience shows that similar geopolitical conflicts often lead to significant short-term fluctuations in gold prices—for example, at the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, gold prices rose significantly in a short period.
Influence of Economic Data and Monetary Policy Expectations
U.S. economic data also has an important impact on gold prices. Recent U.S. inflation data has been mild: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by only 0.1% month-on-month in May (lower than the expected 0.2%), and 2.4% year-on-year, triggering a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy by the market . Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have intensified, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing that traders see the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 70% . Once the Fed cuts rates, the U.S. dollar will weaken, and gold, as a non-U.S. dollar asset, will see its price strongly supported.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, after breaking through the key resistance level of $3,400, the gold price is currently fluctuating around $3,433, indicating strong bullish momentum . A new resistance level near $3,450 has formed. If this level can be broken through, the gold price may start a new round of upward trend, attracting more investors to buy. The $3,400 level below has transformed into a key support level. If the price breaks below this support level, it may trigger panic selling in the market, leading to a price correction.
Comprehensive Outlook
Comprehensively considered, in the short term, under the dual influence of the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel and the enhanced expectations of Fed rate cuts, the possibility of a rise in gold prices is high. However, it should be noted that the geopolitical situation is uncertain. If there are signs of conflict easing, gold prices may face correction pressure. At the same time, changes in U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy will also have an important impact on gold prices, and investors need to pay close attention to the release of relevant information.
Gold strategy analysis for next week, hope it helps you
XAUUSD BUY@3420~3430
SL:3400
TP1:3440~3450
TP2:3460~3480
Trade active
I will update the latest data in time, please continue to pay attention
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.