📊Analysis of gold trend next week on July 12:
1.🌍 News interpretation: Risk aversion and inflation game resonate with gold prices
The strengthening of the US dollar constitutes short-term pressure
The US dollar index rose to 97.92 last Thursday, a new high in more than two weeks. Although it fell back to 97.58 in the late trading, the overall rebound trend suppressed the gold price;
The strong US dollar has increased the cost of gold purchases for non-US currency holders, suppressing the upward momentum of gold prices in the short term.
Intensified trade frictions have pushed up risk aversion
The Trump administration announced a new round of tariff policies and linked them to the trial of the former Brazilian president, and policy uncertainty has surged;
Many countries may respond to US policies, weakening market risk appetite, and gold will benefit from safe-haven buying inflows.
Rising inflation expectations are bullish for gold
Tariff policies may increase the prices of imported goods and boost inflation expectations;
Gold's attractiveness as an anti-inflation asset has increased, but it is necessary to beware of the capital diversion effect caused by the simultaneous rise in US bond yields.
The stability of the U.S. bond market brings mild support
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensonte made it clear that there is no plan to increase the scale of long-term Treasury auctions;
The stability of the U.S. bond market helps control yield fluctuations and indirectly supports gold.
✅ Summary: The news is mixed. Overall, gold benefits from risk aversion and inflation expectations, but the U.S. dollar and the bond market still have short-term restraining power. We need to pay attention to the dynamics of trade negotiations and the risk of continued strength of the U.S. dollar.
2. 📉 Technical analysis: The long structure has not been broken, and low-long is still the main theme
▶ Daily line analysis (mid-term trend):
Structure: Continuous small positive, K line runs above the short-term moving average;
Key position: Positive test of the key resistance of the middle track 3345-3346. If the continuous positive breakthrough stands firm, it will start a new round of upward movement;
Indicator: MACD zero axis below the repair is completed. If the golden cross is large, it will usher in a strong momentum to attack 3400-3420.
▶ 4-hour chart (band rhythm):
Last Friday, a big negative line appeared, which briefly lost the middle track, but then quickly recovered and continued to rise;
The price is currently stable above the annual average line of 3330, showing solid support;
The negative line is regarded as "luring empty washing", the trend structure has not been broken, and the band bullish rhythm has not changed.
▶ 1-hour chart (short-term strategy):
Breakthrough confirmation: Gold price broke through the upper track of the 3326 channel with a big positive line in the Asian morning, and rebounded quickly after confirmation, with continuity;
Sideways and shocks: The European session was consolidated around 3345-3332, and the momentum was obvious;
Short-term opportunities:
If it effectively stands at 3345, the upper targets will point to 3370 and 3390 respectively;
If it only breaks through falsely and does not stand firm, the price is likely to fall back to the 10-day moving average or the lower track of the channel to attack again.
3. 📌 Operation strategy suggestions (next week)
✅ Main idea: mainly long on pullback
Return to support to confirm 3335-3336 long stop loss 3329 target 3350, 3365, 3374
Lure short and then stabilize above 3320 to stabilize and go long stop loss 3310 target 3345, 3370
❌ Auxiliary idea: short on rebound under pressure
3375-3385 encounters resistance and rises pressure zone 3375-3385 stop loss above 3390 target 3350, 3335 (light position, fast in and fast out)
4. 📍Key focus positions next week
Type Key positions
Strong support 3320 / 3330 / 3335
Strong resistance 3375 / 3385 / 3400
Trend turning point 3345 (if it stabilizes, the rise will accelerate)
V. 🎯 Summary of trading suggestions
The current trend of gold is in the stage of accumulating momentum for a breakthrough, and the mid-line structure still tends to be bullish;
The operation is mainly based on the callback low-to-long, focusing on finding the entry point around the 3330-3335 support area;
If the market breaks through and stabilizes at 3345-3346, you can gradually increase your position and focus on 3374-3400;
If you encounter a market that induces short selling, the big negative retracement does not break 3320, which is still a high-quality low-absorption position;
Short orders only try to lightly arrange positions when 3375-3385 is under obvious pressure, and avoid blindly shorting against the trend.
1.🌍 News interpretation: Risk aversion and inflation game resonate with gold prices
The strengthening of the US dollar constitutes short-term pressure
The US dollar index rose to 97.92 last Thursday, a new high in more than two weeks. Although it fell back to 97.58 in the late trading, the overall rebound trend suppressed the gold price;
The strong US dollar has increased the cost of gold purchases for non-US currency holders, suppressing the upward momentum of gold prices in the short term.
Intensified trade frictions have pushed up risk aversion
The Trump administration announced a new round of tariff policies and linked them to the trial of the former Brazilian president, and policy uncertainty has surged;
Many countries may respond to US policies, weakening market risk appetite, and gold will benefit from safe-haven buying inflows.
Rising inflation expectations are bullish for gold
Tariff policies may increase the prices of imported goods and boost inflation expectations;
Gold's attractiveness as an anti-inflation asset has increased, but it is necessary to beware of the capital diversion effect caused by the simultaneous rise in US bond yields.
The stability of the U.S. bond market brings mild support
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensonte made it clear that there is no plan to increase the scale of long-term Treasury auctions;
The stability of the U.S. bond market helps control yield fluctuations and indirectly supports gold.
✅ Summary: The news is mixed. Overall, gold benefits from risk aversion and inflation expectations, but the U.S. dollar and the bond market still have short-term restraining power. We need to pay attention to the dynamics of trade negotiations and the risk of continued strength of the U.S. dollar.
2. 📉 Technical analysis: The long structure has not been broken, and low-long is still the main theme
▶ Daily line analysis (mid-term trend):
Structure: Continuous small positive, K line runs above the short-term moving average;
Key position: Positive test of the key resistance of the middle track 3345-3346. If the continuous positive breakthrough stands firm, it will start a new round of upward movement;
Indicator: MACD zero axis below the repair is completed. If the golden cross is large, it will usher in a strong momentum to attack 3400-3420.
▶ 4-hour chart (band rhythm):
Last Friday, a big negative line appeared, which briefly lost the middle track, but then quickly recovered and continued to rise;
The price is currently stable above the annual average line of 3330, showing solid support;
The negative line is regarded as "luring empty washing", the trend structure has not been broken, and the band bullish rhythm has not changed.
▶ 1-hour chart (short-term strategy):
Breakthrough confirmation: Gold price broke through the upper track of the 3326 channel with a big positive line in the Asian morning, and rebounded quickly after confirmation, with continuity;
Sideways and shocks: The European session was consolidated around 3345-3332, and the momentum was obvious;
Short-term opportunities:
If it effectively stands at 3345, the upper targets will point to 3370 and 3390 respectively;
If it only breaks through falsely and does not stand firm, the price is likely to fall back to the 10-day moving average or the lower track of the channel to attack again.
3. 📌 Operation strategy suggestions (next week)
✅ Main idea: mainly long on pullback
Return to support to confirm 3335-3336 long stop loss 3329 target 3350, 3365, 3374
Lure short and then stabilize above 3320 to stabilize and go long stop loss 3310 target 3345, 3370
❌ Auxiliary idea: short on rebound under pressure
3375-3385 encounters resistance and rises pressure zone 3375-3385 stop loss above 3390 target 3350, 3335 (light position, fast in and fast out)
4. 📍Key focus positions next week
Type Key positions
Strong support 3320 / 3330 / 3335
Strong resistance 3375 / 3385 / 3400
Trend turning point 3345 (if it stabilizes, the rise will accelerate)
V. 🎯 Summary of trading suggestions
The current trend of gold is in the stage of accumulating momentum for a breakthrough, and the mid-line structure still tends to be bullish;
The operation is mainly based on the callback low-to-long, focusing on finding the entry point around the 3330-3335 support area;
If the market breaks through and stabilizes at 3345-3346, you can gradually increase your position and focus on 3374-3400;
If you encounter a market that induces short selling, the big negative retracement does not break 3320, which is still a high-quality low-absorption position;
Short orders only try to lightly arrange positions when 3375-3385 is under obvious pressure, and avoid blindly shorting against the trend.
Trade active
Core factors driving gold pricesTrade frictions escalate: The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on many countries (including Japan, Brazil, Canada, etc.), causing market concerns about global supply chains and economic growth, driving funds into safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. In particular, tariffs on key commodities such as copper and auto parts may exacerbate inflationary pressure.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts: Despite strong initial jobless claims data (227,000), Fed officials such as Waller still hinted at a 50 basis point rate cut this year, and expectations of a downward trend in real interest rates support gold prices. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee also pointed out that tariffs have increased inflation uncertainty and may delay policy shifts.
Geopolitical risk aversion demand: The tough responses of Japan, Brazil and other countries (such as Lula's statement of "not relying on the US market" and Ishiba's statement of "defending national interests") show that trade conflicts may be long-term, and the attractiveness of gold as a non-political asset has increased.
Optimists (such as State Street Global): believe that gold prices may remain in the range of US$3,100-3,500 in the third quarter, and are bullish in the long term.
Cautious traders (such as RJO Futures) emphasize that geopolitical risks need to escalate significantly to break through $3,400, and volatility may continue in the short term.
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
1. Core driving factors: risk aversion dominates the market
Trade war escalation:
Trump announced that he would impose a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports from August 1, and threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods. As global trade tensions intensified, gold was sought after as a safe-haven asset.
The market is worried that trade frictions may drag down the global economy, and funds are flowing into gold ETFs (such as increased holdings of SPDR Gold Trust).
Geopolitical risks:
Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue, which may involve new sanctions, further boosting safe-haven demand.
The situation in the Middle East (Iran nuclear agreement, US-Iran tensions) is still uncertain, supporting gold.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts:
Despite the short-term rebound of the US dollar, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and the downward trend in real interest rates is good for gold.
If US economic data (such as retail sales and CPI) are weak this week, it may strengthen expectations of rate cuts, and gold prices may rise further.
2. Technical analysis: The bullish trend is strong, but beware of short-term corrections
1. Short-term (1-hour chart):
Key support:
3350 (top and bottom conversion + early gap support)
3345 (trend line support, if it falls below, it may reach 3330)
Key resistance:
3375 (today's high, if it breaks through, it will look to 3390-3400)
3400 (psychological barrier + Fibonacci extension level)
2. Daily level:
Moving average system: Gold price stands firmly on the 50-day moving average (3300), the moving average is in a bullish arrangement, MACD golden cross, RSI close to 70 (overbought but not exhausted).
Trend judgment:
If it stands firmly on 3350, it will continue to rise, with a target of 3400 or even higher.
If it falls below 3340, it may pull back to the 3320-3300 area.
3. Today's operation strategy
1. Short-term trading (intraday):
Pullback and long (main strategy):
Entry point: 3350-3345 (support range)
Target: 3370-3390
Stop loss: below 3340 (to prevent false breakthroughs)
Be cautious at high altitudes (secondary strategy):
If it encounters resistance at 3390-3400, you can try shorting with a light position, target 3360-3350, stop loss 3405.
2. Mid-term layout:
Break through 3400 → Follow the trend and go long, target 3450-3500.
Fall below 3340 → Wait and see, wait for stabilization near 3300 before arranging long orders.
Summary and risk warning
✅ Bullish factors:
Trade war + geopolitical risks boost safe-haven demand.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut support gold prices.
⚠️ Risk points:
If Trump's statement on Russia eases, or the trade war turns around, the gold price may fall back.
A short-term rebound in the U.S. dollar could curb gold gains.
Today's focus:
Trump's statement on Russia (may affect market sentiment).
US economic data (such as retail sales, CPI, if weak, it will strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts).
Operational suggestions: Focus on long positions on pullbacks, be cautious in chasing highs, and strictly stop losses!
Note
7.14 Bulls' two lines of defense: 3340 neckline and 3330 trend lifeline
Gold maintains a strong pattern in the short term. It is recommended to trade mainly at low levels. The short-term support below focuses on the 3340 area of the hourly neckline last Friday. The more critical support is locked at the 3330 line. This range is an important watershed for judging the continuation of short-term bullish momentum. As long as the daily level can remain stable above the 3330 mark, the overall trend will remain upward. Before falling below this position, we should adhere to the trend of low-multiple ideas and rely on key support levels to arrange long orders. At present, the price has completed a technical breakthrough and broke through the upper edge of the 3330 convergence triangle under the double positive factors of Trump's tariff implementation to stimulate risk aversion and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and formed three consecutive positives on the daily chart. It is necessary to pay attention to the short-term pressure at the 3375 line. Gold operation strategy: Aggressive people go long at 3342-3344, buy back at 3338-3335 to cover positions and go long, stop loss at 3330, target at 3367
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+7W6lfjoqQ-Y2NjU0
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+7W6lfjoqQ-Y2NjU0
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.