Spot gold continued its correction this week, trading at $3,350.18/oz during the European session, down 0.61% on the day and 2.75% on the week, the worst performance in six weeks. The price has fallen below the lower track of the rising wedge since mid-May, the 4-hour Bollinger Band opening has widened, and the RSI is under pressure at 38.68, indicating that short-term short-term momentum has increased.
Fundamentals: Cooling of risk aversion demand and policy expectations
Geopolitical risk premium fades
Gold prices hit a high of $3,450 this week and then fell rapidly, the direct cause of which was the easing of the situation in the Middle East. U.S. President Trump said on Thursday that "it will take two weeks to evaluate the actions against Iran", temporarily easing market concerns about the escalation of military conflicts. In addition, the news of the resumption of negotiations between Europe and Iran further weakened safe-haven buying, and crude oil prices fell simultaneously (Brent crude oil fell more than 2% to $77/barrel), reflecting the market's pricing correction for energy supply disruptions.
The Fed’s policy path is suppressed
Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, its latest economic forecast released key signals:
Inflation tolerance has been reduced: the inflation forecast for the end of 2025 will be raised to 3%, and it is clearly stated that "inflation stickiness needs to be guarded against";
The pace of interest rate cuts has been postponed: the dot plot shows that the number of interest rate cuts this year has decreased, and the first interest rate cut may be postponed to September, and the terminal interest rate level is higher than previously expected;
The economic outlook has been downgraded: the GDP growth forecast has been lowered from 2.1% to 1.4%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%.
Chairman Powell particularly emphasized that "tariff rhetoric may push up costs in the coming months", suggesting that if Trump imposes new tariffs after the tariff suspension deadline on July 9, the Fed may further adjust its policy. This stance has weakened the short-term appeal of gold as an inflation hedge, and the US dollar index rose 0.6% this week, suppressing gold prices.
Technical aspect: key support level faces test
Short-term structure weakens
4-hour chart: the price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3373.42, and the lower track at 3344.81 has become the key support for the day. The MACD histogram turns negative and the DIFF crosses below the DEA, and the RSI leaves the neutral area, indicating that the bears are dominant. If the $3340 support is lost, the next target will be the low of $3300 on June 9-10.
Daily level: The 50-day moving average (3317.54) and the 100-day moving average (3139.52) form a medium- and long-term support band, but the 200-day moving average (2901.15) is far below the current price, suggesting that if the correction deepens, it may open up more room for decline.
Divergent views among institutions
Some analysts pointed out that after the gold price broke through the rising wedge, the reverse trend line (now at $3390) and the June 18 high of $3400 will constitute a rebound resistance. Strategists from well-known institution Saxo believe: "The decline in crude oil prices has eased concerns about stagflation, but if tariff rhetoric heats up again, gold may regain the favor of safe-haven funds."
Outlook for the future: focus on two major catalysts
Geopolitically sensitive window
In the next two weeks, we need to keep a close eye on Trump's final decision on Iran policy. If the military option returns to the agenda, gold may quickly regain the $3,400 mark. On the contrary, if the negotiations make progress, gold prices may fall to the 3,300-3,317 area (50-day moving average + previous low resonance support).
Policy and data linkage
July 9 tariff node: If the United States imposes tariffs on economies such as the European Union, it may affect gold prices in both directions through inflation expectations and risk sentiment;
June non-agricultural data: If the job market deteriorates significantly (such as an unexpected increase in unemployment), it may strengthen the Fed's expectations of early rate cuts and ease gold selling pressure.
The current gold price is in a dual adjustment stage of technical and fundamental aspects. The defensive strength of the $3,340-3,300 support band will determine the medium-term direction. Traders need to be wary of event-driven volatility amplification, especially during policy vacuum periods, when liquidity changes may lead to price overshoots.
XAUUSD GOLDQ2025 XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD
Fundamentals: Cooling of risk aversion demand and policy expectations
Geopolitical risk premium fades
Gold prices hit a high of $3,450 this week and then fell rapidly, the direct cause of which was the easing of the situation in the Middle East. U.S. President Trump said on Thursday that "it will take two weeks to evaluate the actions against Iran", temporarily easing market concerns about the escalation of military conflicts. In addition, the news of the resumption of negotiations between Europe and Iran further weakened safe-haven buying, and crude oil prices fell simultaneously (Brent crude oil fell more than 2% to $77/barrel), reflecting the market's pricing correction for energy supply disruptions.
The Fed’s policy path is suppressed
Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, its latest economic forecast released key signals:
Inflation tolerance has been reduced: the inflation forecast for the end of 2025 will be raised to 3%, and it is clearly stated that "inflation stickiness needs to be guarded against";
The pace of interest rate cuts has been postponed: the dot plot shows that the number of interest rate cuts this year has decreased, and the first interest rate cut may be postponed to September, and the terminal interest rate level is higher than previously expected;
The economic outlook has been downgraded: the GDP growth forecast has been lowered from 2.1% to 1.4%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%.
Chairman Powell particularly emphasized that "tariff rhetoric may push up costs in the coming months", suggesting that if Trump imposes new tariffs after the tariff suspension deadline on July 9, the Fed may further adjust its policy. This stance has weakened the short-term appeal of gold as an inflation hedge, and the US dollar index rose 0.6% this week, suppressing gold prices.
Technical aspect: key support level faces test
Short-term structure weakens
4-hour chart: the price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3373.42, and the lower track at 3344.81 has become the key support for the day. The MACD histogram turns negative and the DIFF crosses below the DEA, and the RSI leaves the neutral area, indicating that the bears are dominant. If the $3340 support is lost, the next target will be the low of $3300 on June 9-10.
Daily level: The 50-day moving average (3317.54) and the 100-day moving average (3139.52) form a medium- and long-term support band, but the 200-day moving average (2901.15) is far below the current price, suggesting that if the correction deepens, it may open up more room for decline.
Divergent views among institutions
Some analysts pointed out that after the gold price broke through the rising wedge, the reverse trend line (now at $3390) and the June 18 high of $3400 will constitute a rebound resistance. Strategists from well-known institution Saxo believe: "The decline in crude oil prices has eased concerns about stagflation, but if tariff rhetoric heats up again, gold may regain the favor of safe-haven funds."
Outlook for the future: focus on two major catalysts
Geopolitically sensitive window
In the next two weeks, we need to keep a close eye on Trump's final decision on Iran policy. If the military option returns to the agenda, gold may quickly regain the $3,400 mark. On the contrary, if the negotiations make progress, gold prices may fall to the 3,300-3,317 area (50-day moving average + previous low resonance support).
Policy and data linkage
July 9 tariff node: If the United States imposes tariffs on economies such as the European Union, it may affect gold prices in both directions through inflation expectations and risk sentiment;
June non-agricultural data: If the job market deteriorates significantly (such as an unexpected increase in unemployment), it may strengthen the Fed's expectations of early rate cuts and ease gold selling pressure.
The current gold price is in a dual adjustment stage of technical and fundamental aspects. The defensive strength of the $3,340-3,300 support band will determine the medium-term direction. Traders need to be wary of event-driven volatility amplification, especially during policy vacuum periods, when liquidity changes may lead to price overshoots.
XAUUSD GOLDQ2025 XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Senior Market Strategy Analyst | CFA® Charterholder | Builder of a Million Member Profit System. To join, please click 👉🚀🚀t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉：t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
👉：t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.