Analysis of gold market trend on April 14:

Core logic sorting
Trend judgment

Led by bulls: Gold has been trading sideways at high levels after three consecutive days of sharp rises, and the 1-hour moving average is in a bullish arrangement, but we need to be wary of short-term overbought (excessive deviation).

Adjustment method: Pay attention to two possibilities-

Space adjustment: Quickly step back to the support level (such as 3185-3200), and rebound after releasing the selling pressure.

Time adjustment: Narrow range fluctuations (above 3200) digest the gains and accumulate power for subsequent breakthroughs.

Key driving factors

Good news (such as geopolitical risks and Fed policy expectations) support gold prices, but high-level fluctuations are drastic, and blind pursuit of orders should be avoided.

Key price levels
Support area: 3210-3200 (short-term long-short watershed), 3185 (deep retracement level).

Resistance area: 3270-3280 (previous high pressure), 3300 (psychological threshold).

Operation strategy optimization
Bull opportunity
Ideal entry: 3210-3200 area (if you step back quickly), stop loss below 3180, target 3245-3265.

Aggressive strategy: If it is sideways above 3230 and there is no deep correction, you can lightly position more (stop loss 3215), and look at 3270.

Short-term opportunity
Participate cautiously: Only when there are obvious stagflation signals (such as long upper shadows and shrinking volume) in the 3270-3280 area, stop loss 3285, target 3250-3230.

Risk warning: Strict stop loss is required for counter-trend orders to avoid carrying orders.

Risk management points
Position control: A single transaction shall not exceed 5% of the principal to avoid heavy position gambling.

Stop loss discipline: Stop loss for long orders is 3180, stop loss for short orders is 3285, and refuse to take chances.

Time window: Pay attention to the adjustment strength of the Asian and European sessions. The volatility may intensify before and after the US session. Avoid holding too heavy positions before the data.

Summary
Gold is likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level at the beginning of next week. The main idea is to go long on the pullback, but you need to wait patiently for the ideal price. If it directly rises to 3270-3280 and the momentum weakens, you can try shorting. The market sentiment is sensitive. It is recommended to enter the market in batches with light positions and give priority to protecting the principal.

Trade active

Core logic and trading strategy of the current gold market
1. Trend essence: strong bulls, but beware of violent washouts
"Fear of heights is not a reason, but blindly chasing highs is a risk": After the continuous surge in gold, market sentiment has become extreme, but the trend is still dominated by bulls. The historical highs are constantly refreshed, indicating that the driving logic (such as risk aversion and monetary policy expectations) has not changed, but the short-term volatility is extremely high, and we need to be wary of the "fast rise and fall" washout market.

Key lesson: Last week's surge and plunge (300 US dollars level fluctuation) has proved that correct direction judgment ≠ profitable trading, and the timing and rhythm of entry are the core.

2. Key technical signals
Moving average system: 1-hour/4-hour chart moving averages are arranged in a bullish pattern, but the price is far away from the moving average (the deviation rate is too large), and there is a need for repair in the short term.

Adjustment method:

Strong correction: sideways fluctuation (time for space), support reference 3220-3200.

Deep pullback: quickly step back to 3180-3150 (space for time), providing better long-term opportunities.

Volume-price relationship: If the price rises to the 3270-3300 area and there is a shrinking volume and stagnation, it may trigger a short-term opportunity.

3. Risk control and mentality management
Position: The risk of a single transaction should be controlled within 2% of the total funds to avoid heavy positions and bets on the direction.

Time window: Be cautious in the Asian session, and follow the trend after the volatility of the European and American sessions increases.

4. Summary
Core logic: Before the trend breaks, do not guess the top against the trend, but wait for a reasonable pullback position to enter the market.

Key reminder: The current market is "high volatility + high emotionality", and traders need to be patient and avoid being misled by short-term fluctuations.

Trade closed: target reached

The current global economy faces multiple challenges, and the repeated tariff policies are intertwined with inflationary pressures, exacerbating market uncertainty. The United States exempted some technology products from tariffs, seemingly sending a signal of easing, but policy swings have disrupted the global industrial chain, and Asia's countermeasures have put pressure on the supply chain. The contradictions in economic data highlight the hidden worries of domestic demand. Low consumer confidence and high inflation expectations coexist. The Federal Reserve faces the dilemma of curbing inflation and avoiding recession.

The 1-hour moving average of gold is still a bullish arrangement with a golden cross upward. The technical side shows that the short-term support is at $3185-3190 and the resistance is at $3245-3250. After three consecutive positives on the daily chart, the price of gold showed a strong consolidation trend, but the overbought signal needs to be cautious. The technical side shows that the price of gold is at a key support level, and the direction of the breakthrough of the 3185-3250 range will determine the short-term trend.

Gold_Alpha

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Analysis of gold market trend on April 14:

by Gold_Alpha

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