🟡 XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis (15M TF) – Wave (4) Forming, Short Setup in Play
📅 Date: May 16, 2025
📈 Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD) – 15M Chart
🔍 Technique: Elliott Wave, SNR, Fibonacci, AO Convergence
✅ Wave Count Summary
We have a clean 5-wave Elliott structure unfolding:
✅ Wave (1), (2), and extended Wave (3) are completed.
🔄 Price is now in a Wave (4) pullback phase.
🔽 Anticipating a final push down for Wave (5).
🔍 Wave (4) Confluence Zone (Short Setup)
Price is currently approaching a strong confluence zone around 3196, which includes:
📌 Confluences at 3196:
🔴 SNR (Support-Turned-Resistance): Historical reaction level
🌀 Fibonacci Retracements:
0.618 of wave (3) = 3171.6
1.618 Fib Extension (minor internal leg) = 3198.81
Several Fibo clusters between 3195–3200
📐 Dominant Break occurred previously → retest likely
🕯️ Bearish Reaction Expected: Monitor for reversal candlesticks near this level
💡 This is the ideal entry zone for Wave (5) shorts.
📉 Wave (5) Bearish Target Projections
Using Fibo projections from Wave (3) to (4), expect:
Target Level Description Price Zone
🎯 TP1 100% of Wave (1) extension ~3154.80
🎯 TP2 Full Wave (5) extension zone ~3135–3140
📊 AO Divergence may signal Wave (5) completion as momentum fades.
💼 Trade Setup Idea
(For educational purposes – follow your own strategy & confirmation rules)
Parameter Value
Entry Zone 3195–3198 (SNR + Fibo)
Stop Loss 3206–3210 (above structure)
TP1 3155 (safe zone)
TP2 3135 (extended target)
Risk–Reward ~1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on SL
📌 Confirmation Tips:
Wait for bearish engulfing or pin bar near 3196.
Watch for AO turning red = sign of bearish momentum resuming.
🧠 Conclusion
Wave (4) looks to be maturing near the 3196 SNR/Fibo cluster, with a bearish reaction expected to kickstart Wave (5). This setup offers a great R:R opportunity if confirmed by price action. Patience and confirmation are key — don’t front-run until a rejection forms.
📈 Let the chart do the talking. Trade what you see.
📅 Date: May 16, 2025
📈 Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD) – 15M Chart
🔍 Technique: Elliott Wave, SNR, Fibonacci, AO Convergence
✅ Wave Count Summary
We have a clean 5-wave Elliott structure unfolding:
✅ Wave (1), (2), and extended Wave (3) are completed.
🔄 Price is now in a Wave (4) pullback phase.
🔽 Anticipating a final push down for Wave (5).
🔍 Wave (4) Confluence Zone (Short Setup)
Price is currently approaching a strong confluence zone around 3196, which includes:
📌 Confluences at 3196:
🔴 SNR (Support-Turned-Resistance): Historical reaction level
🌀 Fibonacci Retracements:
0.618 of wave (3) = 3171.6
1.618 Fib Extension (minor internal leg) = 3198.81
Several Fibo clusters between 3195–3200
📐 Dominant Break occurred previously → retest likely
🕯️ Bearish Reaction Expected: Monitor for reversal candlesticks near this level
💡 This is the ideal entry zone for Wave (5) shorts.
📉 Wave (5) Bearish Target Projections
Using Fibo projections from Wave (3) to (4), expect:
Target Level Description Price Zone
🎯 TP1 100% of Wave (1) extension ~3154.80
🎯 TP2 Full Wave (5) extension zone ~3135–3140
📊 AO Divergence may signal Wave (5) completion as momentum fades.
💼 Trade Setup Idea
(For educational purposes – follow your own strategy & confirmation rules)
Parameter Value
Entry Zone 3195–3198 (SNR + Fibo)
Stop Loss 3206–3210 (above structure)
TP1 3155 (safe zone)
TP2 3135 (extended target)
Risk–Reward ~1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on SL
📌 Confirmation Tips:
Wait for bearish engulfing or pin bar near 3196.
Watch for AO turning red = sign of bearish momentum resuming.
🧠 Conclusion
Wave (4) looks to be maturing near the 3196 SNR/Fibo cluster, with a bearish reaction expected to kickstart Wave (5). This setup offers a great R:R opportunity if confirmed by price action. Patience and confirmation are key — don’t front-run until a rejection forms.
📈 Let the chart do the talking. Trade what you see.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.