Analysis of the latest gold trend on March 14:

5 days ago

Gold broke through the 2930 line and stabilized on Thursday, and then ran a strong pull-up. The market rose to 2988.9 and closed at 2988. In terms of the gold daily line structure, the market moved abnormally at the beginning of this week, and then unexpectedly returned to the upper side of the moving average band, thus launching a new round of rising mode. However, this wave of rise still came very suddenly, and it can only be attributed to the market's mindless speculation and risk aversion, which disrupted technical expectations and made the market irregular in the short term. Although gold is currently strong, very strong, and may even challenge the 3000 integer mark today, this strange and abnormal emotional trend is not beneficial to operations. There is no reference basis for how long the subsequent rise can last, or even how strong it is. Therefore, don't be blindly optimistic about the rise. For this sudden speculation and risk aversion market, it is the best choice to wait and see.

Technically, the daily line closed the real positive line yesterday, and the daily line has been positive for three consecutive times. The bulls are strong. Today, the inertial rise will hit the 3000 line. In the short-term during the day, it will step back to the low level and continue to do long. For support, focus on 2977-80 and above to continue to be bullish. If it breaks below, it will weaken at any time and watch the decline retracement. Then focus on the previous high of 2956 and the breakthrough area of 2930. Domain support situation, the current pressure above is 3000 mark and the trend line pressure is near 3025. In addition, the 2614 upward trend and 2790-2942 counter-trend pressure should also attract attention in the 2991 area; Asian early trading has pierced yesterday's high, and Tuesday early trading pierced Monday's negative line low of 2880 and then reversed in a V-shape.

Today, Friday, while we are bullish, we should beware of profit-taking by bulls after the big rally. Since the rise of 2832, the gold daily line has a three-yang and three-yin pattern. If the pattern continues to maintain, it is expected to close with a negative line today; therefore, pay attention to the high and fall during the day. The operation is the same as yesterday. If it runs above the low of 2977-2980, you can go long in the short term. If it breaks down, don’t go long. Use the intraday high as the suppression rebound high to go short, and watch for a decline to test the 2956 and 2930 areas. If it directly rises strongly, pay attention to the opportunities for a pullback between 3000-3005 and 3015-3020.

5 days ago

Trade active

On Friday (March 14), spot gold fluctuated and fell during the U.S. market; during the European market, the price of gold once hit $3004.62 per ounce, setting a record high. The fundamentals of gold are still the core driving force behind the price. The uncertainty of the global economy has provided continuous momentum for safe-haven assets, especially the recent US policy of imposing tariffs on European goods has caused market concerns. At the same time, new changes in US economic data have provided additional support for gold. However, the fundamentals are not one-sided. The improvement in global risk sentiment has suppressed the safe-haven demand for gold to a certain extent. The US-Canada trade negotiations have sent positive signals. In addition, Russian President Putin expressed conditional support for the 30-day ceasefire proposal put forward by the United States and Ukraine. Coupled with the fact that the Democratic Party in the U.S. Congress has enough votes to avoid a government shutdown, investor confidence has been boosted, and part of the funds have flowed from gold to the stock market.

Gold technical analysis:

Gold's daily line closed the physical big positive line yesterday, and the daily line has been positive for three consecutive times. The bulls are strong. On Friday, the inertial rise hits the 3000 line. For support, focus on the intraday low of 2977-2980 and continue to be bullish. If it breaks below, it will weaken at any time and look for a retracement. Then pay attention to the support of the previous high of 2956 and the breakthrough point of 2930. The current pressure above is 3008 and the trend line pressure is near 3025. Generally speaking, we are still going long with a pullback. The U.S. market has retreated around 2980 and we still continue to go long. On the whole, in terms of short-term gold operation today, our team of professional senior gold analysts recommends that we should mainly go long on the pullback, supplemented by shorting on the rebound. The upper short-term focus is on the 3005-3008 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2977-2980 first-line support.

4 days ago

Trade closed: target reached

Structural strengthening of risk aversion demand

In the traditional risk aversion logic framework, gold pricing is mainly anchored to real interest rates and the US dollar index. However, the uniqueness of the current market is that policy uncertainty has substantially changed the marginal pricing weight of gold. The latest tariff threat from the US President has led to a steepening of the US Treasury yield curve (the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a five-day high of 2.98%), but the positive correlation between gold and US Treasury bonds has broken - this shows that the market is pricing "policy tail risks" with real money.

Marcus Garvey, head of commodity strategy at Macquarie Group, pointed out: "Current gold ETF holdings are still 20% lower than the 2020 peak. Considering the normalization of geopolitical frictions, the space for capital replenishment is far from exhausted." This judgment echoes the data from the CME Federal Reserve Observation Tool - the market's expectation for a no-deal meeting on March 19 is as high as 97%, and even the probability of a rate cut in May is only 30.3%. This "pressure cooker" policy environment continues to squeeze the valuation space of risky assets.

Technical divergence moment

BNP Paribas just raised its second quarter target to $3,200 the day before the breakthrough, but the $3,000 mark immediately became the focus of competition between longs and shorts. From the perspective of intraday volatility structure, the daily pivot point of $2,970 constitutes the first line of defense. If it fails, it may fall to the support of $2,951 (S1). On the upside, $3,007 (R1) and $3,026 (R2) constitute short-term resistance bands, but what is really worth vigilant is the options market - the Gamma risk of open contracts above $3,000 is accumulating, and any rapid pull-up may trigger reverse hedging operations by market makers.

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