🔍 Technical Analysis (XAU/USD – Gold Spot, 1H Chart)
🔹 Chart Structure & Trendlines
Descending Trendline Breakout: Price has decisively broken above the long-standing descending trendline, indicating a potential bullish trend reversal.
Horizontal Support/Resistance:
Key support zone: Around 3260–3270, shown with horizontal cyan lines and multiple bounce points (green arrows).
Key resistance zones:
Minor resistance at 3334.48.
Strong resistance at 3358.62 (previous structural high).
🔹 Price Action Insights
Double Rejection & Breakout: After testing the descending trendline twice (red arrows), price finally broke above it with strong bullish momentum.
Retest Expected: Price may retest the 3260–3270 support zone (previous resistance and trendline convergence), which aligns with standard breakout-retest-continuation behavior.
Projected Targets:
Target 1: 3334 (recent high/resistance).
Target 2: 3358 (next major resistance).
🔹 Bullish Structure Confirmation
Higher lows and higher highs are forming.
Bullish engulfing breakout candle above resistance zone.
🌐 Fundamental Analysis – Key Drivers for Gold (XAU/USD)
🔸 Global Economic Context
U.S. Dollar Weakness: If recent U.S. economic data (jobs, inflation) shows signs of cooling, it weakens the dollar, boosting gold prices.
Fed Policy Outlook: Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s stance on rate cuts. Dovish signals (rate cuts or pause) tend to support gold due to its inverse relationship with real yields.
🔸 Geopolitical & Safe-Haven Demand
Any rise in geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East, Eastern Europe) increases demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Recent market uncertainty may explain the breakout move shown on the chart.
🔸 Inflation & Commodities Correlation
Persisting inflation keeps gold attractive as an inflation hedge.
Rising oil prices also tend to support gold prices due to commodity correlation and inflationary spillovers.
📈 Conclusion & Outlook
Technical Bias: Bullish (breakout confirmed with clean structure).
Fundamental Bias: Mildly bullish to bullish, depending on Fed tone and macroeconomic prints.
Short-term Strategy: Look for a retest around 3260–3270 as a potential long entry zone targeting 3334 and 3358.
Risk Management: Use stops below 3250 to protect against false breakouts.
🔹 Chart Structure & Trendlines
Descending Trendline Breakout: Price has decisively broken above the long-standing descending trendline, indicating a potential bullish trend reversal.
Horizontal Support/Resistance:
Key support zone: Around 3260–3270, shown with horizontal cyan lines and multiple bounce points (green arrows).
Key resistance zones:
Minor resistance at 3334.48.
Strong resistance at 3358.62 (previous structural high).
🔹 Price Action Insights
Double Rejection & Breakout: After testing the descending trendline twice (red arrows), price finally broke above it with strong bullish momentum.
Retest Expected: Price may retest the 3260–3270 support zone (previous resistance and trendline convergence), which aligns with standard breakout-retest-continuation behavior.
Projected Targets:
Target 1: 3334 (recent high/resistance).
Target 2: 3358 (next major resistance).
🔹 Bullish Structure Confirmation
Higher lows and higher highs are forming.
Bullish engulfing breakout candle above resistance zone.
🌐 Fundamental Analysis – Key Drivers for Gold (XAU/USD)
🔸 Global Economic Context
U.S. Dollar Weakness: If recent U.S. economic data (jobs, inflation) shows signs of cooling, it weakens the dollar, boosting gold prices.
Fed Policy Outlook: Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s stance on rate cuts. Dovish signals (rate cuts or pause) tend to support gold due to its inverse relationship with real yields.
🔸 Geopolitical & Safe-Haven Demand
Any rise in geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East, Eastern Europe) increases demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Recent market uncertainty may explain the breakout move shown on the chart.
🔸 Inflation & Commodities Correlation
Persisting inflation keeps gold attractive as an inflation hedge.
Rising oil prices also tend to support gold prices due to commodity correlation and inflationary spillovers.
📈 Conclusion & Outlook
Technical Bias: Bullish (breakout confirmed with clean structure).
Fundamental Bias: Mildly bullish to bullish, depending on Fed tone and macroeconomic prints.
Short-term Strategy: Look for a retest around 3260–3270 as a potential long entry zone targeting 3334 and 3358.
Risk Management: Use stops below 3250 to protect against false breakouts.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.