Gold (XAUUSD) weekly update 04-08.12
Gold has reached an all-time high. I expect it to break and then fall, forming the second swing.
Macroeconomics
Last week's PCE reading showed lower inflation and instead of gold rising, it fell.
The FED is about to pause, or at least that is the expectation at the moment.
Unemployment rate is rising, which is bullish for gold.
It seems that the banks are only buying gold because they are looking at the big picture - risk of recession, global risk (last two wars), instability in the USA caused by high debt and high interest rates.
Top-Down Analysis
I see no point in analysing this section, as we get automatic updates for 9 time frames every day.
Benchmark
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vOhp2ydg/
The commodity index is falling, but we see that gold is super bullish everywhere.
COT Reports
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rYb2QBGE/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/U2bIprNb/
It seems that everyone is buying gold at the moment - banks, professional traders and, of course, us.
Gold vs Silver
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nrcBodaZ/
Silver is bullish like gold, confirming the direction for now.
Volume Spread Analysis - Wyckoff patterns
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nTnIXoRw/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/K5vzyvZA/
The current rally is being confirmed by volume.
For now, the accumulation pattern is being respected.
Momentum
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qweOjQ0k/
The price should fall soon. Momentum indicators show that the current price is overbought.
Macroeconomics
Last week's PCE reading showed lower inflation and instead of gold rising, it fell.
The FED is about to pause, or at least that is the expectation at the moment.
Unemployment rate is rising, which is bullish for gold.
It seems that the banks are only buying gold because they are looking at the big picture - risk of recession, global risk (last two wars), instability in the USA caused by high debt and high interest rates.
Top-Down Analysis
I see no point in analysing this section, as we get automatic updates for 9 time frames every day.
Benchmark
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vOhp2ydg/
The commodity index is falling, but we see that gold is super bullish everywhere.
COT Reports
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rYb2QBGE/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/U2bIprNb/
It seems that everyone is buying gold at the moment - banks, professional traders and, of course, us.
Gold vs Silver
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nrcBodaZ/
Silver is bullish like gold, confirming the direction for now.
Volume Spread Analysis - Wyckoff patterns
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nTnIXoRw/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/K5vzyvZA/
The current rally is being confirmed by volume.
For now, the accumulation pattern is being respected.
Momentum
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qweOjQ0k/
The price should fall soon. Momentum indicators show that the current price is overbought.
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