Analysis of gold trend next week:
This week, the gold market continued its strong upward trend. Driven by multiple positive factors, the price rose for the sixth consecutive week and hit a record high of $2,886.65 in trading. The main driving factors include: Surge in safe-haven demand: Global political and economic uncertainty has increased, especially US President Trump's announcement of additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Although it has been temporarily delayed for one month, the high uncertainty in the market has made investors' demand for gold still strong. Central bank increases gold holdings: The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves. It has increased its gold holdings for three consecutive months since July last year. In January, it purchased five tons of gold, raising its gold reserves to 2,285 tons. Although gold reserves account for only 5% of foreign exchange reserves, this continued increase in purchases indicates that China may continue to increase the proportion of gold reserves in the future.
Next week's market outlook
Next week, the gold market will still be closely affected by the global economic and political situation. The main focus includes: US CPI data: The United States will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, which will become the focus of market attention next week. If the CPI data is strong, it may increase market expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates, which in turn will put pressure on gold prices. On the contrary, if the inflation data is weak, it may further support the rise in gold prices. Political situation in Washington: The Trump administration's new moves on tariffs remain an important factor affecting market sentiment. Although Trump has temporarily delayed tariff measures on Mexico and Canada, this does not mean that the tariff issue has been resolved, and investors need to pay close attention to developments. Global economic data: Eurozone employment data and China's CPI and PPI data will also affect global market sentiment, which in turn will have an impact on gold prices. As trade uncertainty may lead to continued heightened uncertainty in global markets, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to remain at a high level.
Technical analysis:
From a technical analysis perspective, the gold market is at a critical juncture. As of February 2025, factors such as the global economic landscape, monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and inflation levels have jointly shaped the upward trend of gold.
Weekly chart: This week's weekly line recorded a positive line with an upper shadow, forming a six-day favorable arrangement. The current price is running above the upper track of the Bollinger Bands, and the short-term moving average maintains a golden cross and develops upward. It stands to reason that it will be conducive to the continued strengthening of the bulls, so the weekly chart is still mainly bullish.
Daily chart: Although the daily line recorded a positive line yesterday, the long upper shadow line cannot be ignored, because this shows that the gold price encountered strong resistance in the 2886 area. Fortunately, the short-term indicators are still arranged in a bullish pattern, the short-term moving average extends upward, and forms a strong support in the 2848-2850 area. In addition, the Bollinger Bands open upward as a whole, and the golden cross pattern of the macd indicator provides support for the bulls. Therefore, the main idea of going long at a low position on the daily chart is still.
4-hour chart: Affected by the rise and fall of gold prices, the 5-day moving average in the short-term moving average turned downward, which also led to short-term resistance at the opening of next week. In addition, the bullish strength is obviously insufficient, which can be reflected from the rapid retracement of the high point near 2860. In addition, the upward momentum of short-term indicators is not strong, and the MACD indicator forms a dead cross downward again. Therefore, in general, the upward movement of the 4-hour chart should be regarded as a high-point correction.
Summary
Overall, the gold market performed strongly this week, setting a record high, mainly driven by safe-haven demand, weak US non-farm payrolls data, and continued gold holdings by global central banks. Market uncertainty remains the core driving force for gold's rise. Geopolitical tensions and weak expectations for the global economy have led investors to seek to allocate assets in safe-haven assets such as gold. With the further development of US economic data and global political situation next week, the gold market will face new challenges and opportunities, but with the continued purchase of gold by global central banks and the continued safe-haven demand, gold prices still have a large room for growth.
Operation strategy:
In general, our professional and experienced gold analyst team recommends that the short-term operation of gold next week should be mainly short-selling on rebounds, supplemented by long-selling on pullbacks. The upper short-term focus is on the 2882-2887 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2835-2830 line of support.
The specific operation strategy is as follows:
When gold rebounds, short sell at 2882-2887, stop loss at 2892, target around 2870-2860, break through to 2850; continue to hold if it falls below!
When gold falls back, go long at 2840-2845, and cover positions at 2835 when gold falls back, stop loss at 2830, target 2888-2890;
Trade active
Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Analysis of gold news: Spot gold rose above $2,900/ounce in the European session on Monday (February 10), with a daily increase of 1.34%. Market concerns about US President Trump's tariff remarks continued to ferment. At the same time, US economic data strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates. The safe-haven and anti-inflation properties of gold jointly pushed gold prices higher. Risk aversion in the global market has heated up, and investors are wary of the economic uncertainty that may be brought about by Trump's tariff policy. Earlier, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, and said that he would implement a reciprocal tariff policy on all countries. This statement has exacerbated market concerns about global trade tensions, prompting funds to flow into safe-haven assets such as gold. In addition, the market is paying attention to the US CPI data to be released this week and the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. It is expected that these two events will provide further guidance for the trend of gold.
The focus of the market this week will be the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the US CPI data for January. If the inflation data is stronger than expected, it will further strengthen the Fed's position of maintaining high interest rates, thereby supporting the US dollar, which may put some pressure on gold in the short term. However, from the long-term trend, the market's concerns about global economic uncertainty still exist, and the safe-haven demand for gold may continue. In the short term, the performance of gold prices around $2,900 will be the key to market attention. If it can effectively break through, the current round of gains may continue.
Why does gold continue to rise?
The recent strong breakthrough of gold is mainly related to macro and geopolitical risk aversion factors, mainly three pricing factors: the potential inflation rebound pressure in the United States, the increased expectations of interest rate cuts under the neutral statement of the Federal Reserve, and the increase in gold holdings by global central banks. Under the combination of these three variables, the price of gold continues to remain strong.
1. Geopolitical conflict: The Sino-US tariff war has re-emerged, and risk aversion has soared!
Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, the Sino-US tariff war has restarted, and risk aversion has soared. The saying "buy gold in troubled times" has reappeared, and investors have turned to gold for risk aversion, and gold prices have soared in the short term. At the beginning of 2025, the United States imposed tariffs on Chinese and Canadian goods, and China retaliated. Trade frictions exacerbated global economic uncertainty. Gold became a "safe haven" for funds, and the surge in demand pushed up gold prices.
2. The Fed cut interest rates: the cost of holding gold is reduced!
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, reducing the cost of holding gold. History shows that gold prices perform well during interest rate cut cycles.
At the same time, interest rate cuts are usually accompanied by an increase in money supply, which may lead to rising prices and trigger inflation. Gold has anti-inflation properties. Under inflation expectations, its investment value will be further highlighted, thereby driving up gold prices.
3. Global central banks are buying gold crazily, with an annual demand of nearly 5,000 tons!
Data from the World Gold Council shows that in 2024, global central banks are snapping up gold at a record pace: purchases have exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, and accelerated to 333 tons in the fourth quarter, with an annual total demand of 4,974 tons. The central bank's demand for gold seems to be "endless."
Technical analysis of gold: Today, Monday, gold has once again hit a record high. As of now, gold has reached above the 2906 mark. Gold is currently maintaining a strong oscillating trend in the daily trend. The daily K-line continues to run along the short-term moving average, and the price shows signs of gradually moving out of the high-level oscillation range. There is no sign of peaking in the daily trend for the time being. Today, it is extremely strong in a cyclical rise. In this kind of time-based transaction, price is not the key, the key is time. At the same time, this rise is completely a forced shorting pattern, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Don't consider the idea of shorting. In addition, at this rhythm, even if the longs open low in the morning, there is not much risk of retracement. Continue to look at the second rise.
In the 4-hour level trend of gold, the price has moved out of the previous high-level oscillation range. The European and American markets will pay attention to whether there is a second pull-up trend after the retracement confirmation. In the short-term trend, pay attention to the support around 2880 below. In the hourly level trend, the K-line basically maintains an upward trend along the short-term moving average, and there is basically no retracement during the day. If you want to short short, you must at least wait until there are short-term peaking signs in the small-level cycle trend, and pay attention to short-term adjustments. Overall, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends that the short-term operation of gold today is mainly based on callbacks and short rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper resistance of 2915-2920, and the short-term focus on the lower support of 2885-2880.
Gold operation ideas:
Gold falls back to 2878-2880 and goes long, stop loss 2873, target 2905-2910;
Trade closed: target reached
Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
On the 4-hour trend of gold, the price has come out of the previous high and volatile range. In the European and American market, we will pay attention to whether there is a second upward trend after the confirmation of the retracement. In the short-term trend, we will pay attention to the support around 2890 below. On the hourly level, the K-line basically maintains an upward trend along the short-term moving average, and there is basically no pushback during the day. If you want to go short in the short term, you must at least wait until there are signs of short-term peaking in the small-level cycle trend, and pay attention to short-term adjustments. Taken together, today's short-term operation of gold is based on a team of professional and senior gold analysts who recommend mainly buying on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebounds. The upper short-term focus is on the 2920-2925 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2890-2885 first-line support.
Today’s gold trading strategy:
Operation suggestion 1: Go long when gold pulls back around 2887-85, with a loss of 2878, and the target is 2900. Continue to hold the breakthrough position, and look for 2920!
Operation suggestion 2: Try to short gold at 2908-2910 (one-fifth of funds enter the market). If gold breaks through 2920, cover one-fifth of the position, stop loss at 2925, target 2900-2890, continue to hold if it breaks
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.