Technical Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold) – Daily Chart Projection
1. Market Context & Trend Overview
Current Trend: Gold is in a strong uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows within an ascending channel.
Price Position: The price has reached the upper boundary of the channel, acting as resistance, making it a key decision point.
2. Bearish Retracement Expectation
The chart suggests a potential pullback after reaching resistance, indicated by:
Bearish Rejection at the 0.00% Fibonacci level (high point).
A projected move towards the mid to lower Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%).
The blue arrow shows a potential downward correction.
3. Fibonacci Key Levels & Support Zones
38.2% Retracement (~$2,850 - $2,860)
A shallow pullback zone where price may find early support.
50.0% Retracement (~$2,785 - $2,800)
A crucial support level where buyers may step in for a continuation of the uptrend.
61.8% Retracement (~$2,725 - $2,750)
The "Golden Ratio" level, historically a strong buy zone in bullish trends.
4. Confluence Factors Supporting a Pullback
Overextension: Price has reached a key resistance zone at the channel’s upper boundary.
Previous Price Action: Past movements show pullbacks after reaching similar channel highs.
EMA 50 Support (~$2,850 - $2,800):
The 50-day EMA aligns with the 38.2% & 50% Fibonacci levels, reinforcing support.
5. Trading Plan Based on This Analysis
📉 Bearish Short-Term Setup (Correction Trade)
Entry: Wait for bearish confirmation (rejection candle or lower high formation near $3,030).
Target:
First TP at 38.2% Fib (~$2,860)
Second TP at 50% Fib (~$2,800)
Final TP at 61.8% Fib (~$2,725)
Stop-loss: Above $3,060 (recent highs).
📈 Bullish Continuation Setup (Buy the Dip)
Entry: Look for bullish price action (bullish engulfing, hammer candle, or double bottom) around Fibonacci support levels.
Target: $3,100 - $3,150 if price holds at 50% or 61.8% Fib levels.
Stop-loss: Below $2,700 (break of market structure).
Conclusion
Gold is at a decision point—if it rejects resistance, a pullback is likely.
Key buy zones are around the Fibonacci 38.2% - 61.8% retracement levels.
If $3,050 breaks with volume, the bullish continuation scenario comes into play.
Current Trend: Gold is in a strong uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows within an ascending channel.
Price Position: The price has reached the upper boundary of the channel, acting as resistance, making it a key decision point.
2. Bearish Retracement Expectation
The chart suggests a potential pullback after reaching resistance, indicated by:
Bearish Rejection at the 0.00% Fibonacci level (high point).
A projected move towards the mid to lower Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%).
The blue arrow shows a potential downward correction.
3. Fibonacci Key Levels & Support Zones
38.2% Retracement (~$2,850 - $2,860)
A shallow pullback zone where price may find early support.
50.0% Retracement (~$2,785 - $2,800)
A crucial support level where buyers may step in for a continuation of the uptrend.
61.8% Retracement (~$2,725 - $2,750)
The "Golden Ratio" level, historically a strong buy zone in bullish trends.
4. Confluence Factors Supporting a Pullback
Overextension: Price has reached a key resistance zone at the channel’s upper boundary.
Previous Price Action: Past movements show pullbacks after reaching similar channel highs.
EMA 50 Support (~$2,850 - $2,800):
The 50-day EMA aligns with the 38.2% & 50% Fibonacci levels, reinforcing support.
5. Trading Plan Based on This Analysis
📉 Bearish Short-Term Setup (Correction Trade)
Entry: Wait for bearish confirmation (rejection candle or lower high formation near $3,030).
Target:
First TP at 38.2% Fib (~$2,860)
Second TP at 50% Fib (~$2,800)
Final TP at 61.8% Fib (~$2,725)
Stop-loss: Above $3,060 (recent highs).
📈 Bullish Continuation Setup (Buy the Dip)
Entry: Look for bullish price action (bullish engulfing, hammer candle, or double bottom) around Fibonacci support levels.
Target: $3,100 - $3,150 if price holds at 50% or 61.8% Fib levels.
Stop-loss: Below $2,700 (break of market structure).
Conclusion
Gold is at a decision point—if it rejects resistance, a pullback is likely.
Key buy zones are around the Fibonacci 38.2% - 61.8% retracement levels.
If $3,050 breaks with volume, the bullish continuation scenario comes into play.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.