Last week, the price of spot gold (XAU/USD) hit a record high again, breaking through the $3,245/ounce mark during the session, and then slightly corrected due to overbought daily technical indicators. Despite this, gold is still strongly supported overall and maintains a strong consolidation pattern. Behind this round of gold price surge is the result of the resonance of multiple macro factors: global trade tensions have suddenly escalated; the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level since April 2022; the decline in US CPI data has strengthened the Fed's expectations of a rate cut this year; the selling pressure in the global bond market has brought inflation concerns, stimulating the demand for gold to preserve value.
After US President Trump announced that he would impose tariffs of up to 145% on products from the Asian giant, the country also responded quickly by raising tariffs on US imports to 125%. This round of high-intensity taxation has exacerbated market concerns about the outlook for the global economy, and safe-haven funds have flowed into the gold market in large quantities.
In addition, data showed that the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has soared sharply, reflecting that investors have lost confidence in the outlook for US bonds and turned to non-yielding assets such as gold for risk aversion.
Factors for the rise in gold prices:
The current upward logic of gold prices is a typical combination of 'risk hedging + policy stimulus'.
Gold is absorbing multi-dimensional safe-haven demand from risky assets, bond markets and foreign exchange markets.
The Fed's expectations for three rate cuts this year have increased, further suppressing the dollar and boosting gold prices.
The weak dollar and the Fed's policy shift jointly provide medium-term support for gold prices.
At the same time, the dollar continued to weaken, falling to its lowest level since April 2022, enhancing the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars.
From a technical perspective: the daily RSI is above 70, indicating short-term technical overbought; but the $3,200 mark below has strong support, and if it falls below, it will retest the $3,168-3,167 area;
This area constitutes a short-term bullish defense line. If it holds steady, gold prices may launch a new round of upward attacks.
As a non-yielding asset, gold has always performed well in the context of "high inflation + low interest rates + global risk events". And at present, this "triple condition" has been basically met. Although there is technical pressure for gold prices to fall in the short term, from a macro-cyclical perspective, its upward trend has not yet ended. In the future, if trade concerns persist, the dollar continues to weaken, or the Federal Reserve sends a more dovish signal, gold prices are expected to hit $3,300 or even higher.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
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✔Copy accurate trading signals✔Manage accounts🎁Stable profit of more than 210.8% per week🎁Success rate is as high as 98.55%, real-time communication: t.me/cryptoanalyst_baker
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.