Analysis of the latest gold trading trend on March 19
📊Gold news: On Tuesday (March 18), driven by economic concerns caused by US President Trump's trade policy, gold prices once again broke through the $3,000 mark on Tuesday, setting a new record high. This is the second record this week, showing the strong demand for safe-haven assets in the market. Trump's trade policy is significantly pushing up gold prices. The 25% tariff on steel and aluminum that took effect in February has caused concerns in the global market. The industry-specific and reciprocal tariffs to be implemented on April 2 may further exacerbate global trade concerns and enhance safe-haven buying.
📊Gold technical aspects: Gold continued to rise and strengthen on Tuesday, and the bullish trend was very stable. Every small correction was a good band low, and then continued to hit a record high. It has now broken through the 3030 line, and the upper track of the weekly channel has moved up to correct around 3038, and the upper track of the monthly channel has moved up to correct 3046. That is to say, there may be a short-term adjustment risk when approaching the 3040 line. At the beginning of the week, it rose strongly, and continued to insist on rebounding and bullish. However, in the short term, we must always be wary of sudden downward corrections. On the one hand, the height of the third upward wave will gradually approach, and the resistance of the upper track of the medium- and long-term channel will also approach. On the other hand, short-term indicators diverge and overbought; of course, if there is a wave of downward adjustment, it is still prepared for further highs in the future.
📊Short-term relying on the 3012 line to continue to rise strongly, pay attention to the gains and losses of this moving average, Monday morning directly went extremely strong, stabilized in advance at 2999 and broke the high, and continued in the European session. There is a high probability that it will rise again. To follow the bullish trend, it can only be tested above 3015; therefore, in terms of operation, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends continuing to be bullish above 3015, and the target resistance is 3040. Beware of corrections near 3040, and then stabilize at a low level and gradually rise to engulf the decline. On the whole, today's short-term gold operation ideas, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends to focus on longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. In the short term at the top, focus on the first-line resistance of 3050-3055, and in the short term at the bottom, focus on the first-line support of 3004-2999.💥🔥☄️
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Technical analysis of gold: From a technical point of view, gold is undoubtedly bullish at the current weekly, daily or 4-hour level. However, the indicator shows that the current price has shown signs of divergence after a continuous rise. We previously analyzed that the price rose to 3040 and entered the bullish risk area. According to the weekly 2590 or the low 2540, one rose by 500$ and the other rose by 450$. The previous wave was 2286-2790, with an increase of 504$. This is the origin of 3040, a double increase. If you count from 2590, there is still roughly 40-50$ of room. In other words, the maximum increase is 3080-3090! But if it reaches 3040, don't blindly chase it. The risk of bulls still needs to be considered.
At present, while being bullish, we must also beware of the decline that may occur at any time. The trend support of the daily cycle has two points 3009 and 2956. It seems that the price span is relatively large, but in fact, it is easy to get out of the decline. The 4-hour level support points are 3025 and 3015. In other words, today's extremely strong and weak key points are at 3015. If 3015 is broken, gold will no longer be so strong and it is very likely to go to 3000. 3000 is the key support of this wave of strength and weakness. If this point is broken, we will not see a unilateral rise, but look at 2955. Therefore, today we will first look at the gains and losses of 3015. If there is no break, we will continue to see an increase. But if a break is formed, then today gold will pay attention to turning to see the adjustment space to 3000 or lower. Today, whether it is the technical point of view or the time cycle, there is a possibility of a change of direction, so everyone must pay attention. On the whole, our team of professional and experienced gold analysts recommends that the short-term operation strategy for gold today should be mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by shorting on rebound highs. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3040-3045 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3015-3010 line of support.
Trade closed: target reached
The Fed's upcoming interest rate decision and Powell's policy statement are becoming the "super storm eye" of the global market. Although it has become a consensus to maintain the interest rate range, the Fed chairman needs to walk a tightrope between multiple goals: on the one hand, the stock market urgently needs a "dovish reassurance" after the banking crisis, and the S&P 500 index has been blocked at 4,100 points for six consecutive weeks, and urgently needs a policy warm wind to break through technical pressure; on the other hand, the credit status of the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency requires the Fed to maintain inflation deterrence and avoid the deepening of the inversion of the US Treasury yield curve. This delicate balance of policy statements will directly determine the fate of the three major assets-if Powell hints at a pause in interest rate hikes but retains the option of tightening, the US Treasury yield curve will steepen; if he emphasizes "higher and longer interest rates", the US dollar index is expected to return to the 105 mark, but technology stocks may be under pressure. Traders need to be wary of the "expectation gap trap", because any wording that deviates from the market consensus may trigger a drastic revaluation of asset prices.
The gold market was volatile today. It rose from a low of 3027 to 3045 in the Asian morning and then fell back quickly. It rebounded from 3023 to 3041 in the European session, but the overall trend of the US session was weak, falling to 3025. Currently, the gold price is hovering around 3032. The upper range of 3037-3040 has become a key resistance level. If it can be effectively broken through, the gold price is expected to further test the 3060-3080 area. The lower support is in the 3020-3018 range.
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🏆Strategy guidance
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💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
🏆Strategy guidance
💰Analysis layout
🥇Market tracking
💹In-depth analysis, accurate prediction, grasp the pulse of the gold market, if you like my ideas, please follow and forward
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.