On Friday (June 27), spot gold (XAU/USD) hit an intraday low of $3,281, close to a one-month low; the decline continued in the European session. Market optimism was boosted by the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal. In addition, traders adjusted their positions before the release of the US core PCE price index, which also put pressure on gold prices.
Fundamentals
The latest US GDP data showed that the economy contracted by 0.5% annualized in the first quarter of this year, far lower than the previous value of 0.2%, highlighting weak consumer spending and the disturbance caused by tariffs. At the same time, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 236,000, which seemed healthy on the surface, but the number of continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, a new high since November 2021, reflecting that the job market may have peaked.
Although the weak data has raised expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the inflation outlook remains uncertain. The market focuses on the core PCE price index to be announced tonight. If it exceeds expectations, it will support Powell's "wait-and-see" attitude and limit the pace of interest rate cuts in the short term. The US dollar index has recently fallen to a new low since March 2022 due to the continued decline in expectations for interest rate cuts, but it has not been able to effectively support gold prices.
Technical aspects:
The current gold daily line structure shows that after falling from a high of $3,451, gold prices are in a downward trend after sideways fluctuations. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows a clear convergence, indicating that volatility is gradually compressed and the market is facing a direction choice. At present, the price has fallen below the Bollinger middle track of $3,346 and is approaching the lower track of $3,274. Analysts believe that the short-term support is at $3,250. If it falls, it may further test the previous low of $3,120.
The MACD indicator fast and slow line dead cross structure continues, and the green column of the bar chart is enlarged again, indicating that the downward momentum is still being released; the RSI indicator fell to 43.22, which is bearish but has not entered the oversold area, indicating that there is still room for further exploration. Analysts believe that if the price fails to quickly return to above $3,300, short-term short-selling pressure may continue to be released.
Market sentiment observation
The current market is clearly biased towards "risk preference" sentiment, thanks to the cooling of the situation in the Middle East and the negative interpretation of economic data. Gold, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is under pressure in this context. In addition, the market's concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, especially the rumors surrounding President Trump's replacement of Powell, which also adds uncertainty to the future policy path.
Although the weak performance of the US dollar should theoretically be bullish for gold, from the actual market feedback, traders will still focus on core inflation data. The market consensus's cautious attitude towards tonight's PCE data has also caused the current gold price to hover in a state of "waiting for confirmation signals in a bearish trend", and the overall sentiment tends to wait and see.
Outlook for the future market
In the short term, analysts believe that if the PCE data is lower than expected and strengthens the expectation of a rate cut in July, the gold price is expected to re-test the resistance range of $3,300-3,346; once it rises above $3,370, it will open the door to retest $3,450. Bulls are concerned about whether MACD and RSI stabilize simultaneously to confirm the bottom signal.
On the contrary, analysts believe that if the PCE data unexpectedly strengthens, coupled with the market continuing to digest the news of the ceasefire in the Middle East, the price of gold may continue to fall below the support of $3,280. Once it effectively breaks below $3,250, it will trigger more technical selling pressure, and the target may be $3,120 or even lower.
From a medium-term perspective, the price of gold is still in a wide range of shocks (about $3,250-3,450). Analysts believe that if the macro interest rate and inflation path are not clear, gold may continue to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern. It is necessary to wait for new driving factors (such as the Fed's clear policy direction or the market's risk aversion) to guide the price breakthrough direction.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLDQ2025 XAUUSD
Fundamentals
The latest US GDP data showed that the economy contracted by 0.5% annualized in the first quarter of this year, far lower than the previous value of 0.2%, highlighting weak consumer spending and the disturbance caused by tariffs. At the same time, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 236,000, which seemed healthy on the surface, but the number of continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, a new high since November 2021, reflecting that the job market may have peaked.
Although the weak data has raised expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the inflation outlook remains uncertain. The market focuses on the core PCE price index to be announced tonight. If it exceeds expectations, it will support Powell's "wait-and-see" attitude and limit the pace of interest rate cuts in the short term. The US dollar index has recently fallen to a new low since March 2022 due to the continued decline in expectations for interest rate cuts, but it has not been able to effectively support gold prices.
Technical aspects:
The current gold daily line structure shows that after falling from a high of $3,451, gold prices are in a downward trend after sideways fluctuations. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows a clear convergence, indicating that volatility is gradually compressed and the market is facing a direction choice. At present, the price has fallen below the Bollinger middle track of $3,346 and is approaching the lower track of $3,274. Analysts believe that the short-term support is at $3,250. If it falls, it may further test the previous low of $3,120.
The MACD indicator fast and slow line dead cross structure continues, and the green column of the bar chart is enlarged again, indicating that the downward momentum is still being released; the RSI indicator fell to 43.22, which is bearish but has not entered the oversold area, indicating that there is still room for further exploration. Analysts believe that if the price fails to quickly return to above $3,300, short-term short-selling pressure may continue to be released.
Market sentiment observation
The current market is clearly biased towards "risk preference" sentiment, thanks to the cooling of the situation in the Middle East and the negative interpretation of economic data. Gold, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is under pressure in this context. In addition, the market's concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, especially the rumors surrounding President Trump's replacement of Powell, which also adds uncertainty to the future policy path.
Although the weak performance of the US dollar should theoretically be bullish for gold, from the actual market feedback, traders will still focus on core inflation data. The market consensus's cautious attitude towards tonight's PCE data has also caused the current gold price to hover in a state of "waiting for confirmation signals in a bearish trend", and the overall sentiment tends to wait and see.
Outlook for the future market
In the short term, analysts believe that if the PCE data is lower than expected and strengthens the expectation of a rate cut in July, the gold price is expected to re-test the resistance range of $3,300-3,346; once it rises above $3,370, it will open the door to retest $3,450. Bulls are concerned about whether MACD and RSI stabilize simultaneously to confirm the bottom signal.
On the contrary, analysts believe that if the PCE data unexpectedly strengthens, coupled with the market continuing to digest the news of the ceasefire in the Middle East, the price of gold may continue to fall below the support of $3,280. Once it effectively breaks below $3,250, it will trigger more technical selling pressure, and the target may be $3,120 or even lower.
From a medium-term perspective, the price of gold is still in a wide range of shocks (about $3,250-3,450). Analysts believe that if the macro interest rate and inflation path are not clear, gold may continue to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern. It is necessary to wait for new driving factors (such as the Fed's clear policy direction or the market's risk aversion) to guide the price breakthrough direction.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLDQ2025 XAUUSD 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Senior Market Strategy Analyst | CFA® Charterholder | Builder of a Million Member Profit System. To join, please click 👉🚀🚀t.me/EagleEyePrecisionAnalysis
👉：t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
👉：t.me/Eagle_PreciseAnalysis
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.