Core trading logic：
Driving factors: Risk aversion (geopolitical conflict), Fed rate cut expectations, central bank gold purchases and inflationary pressure jointly support gold prices, and the expectation of a weaker dollar further strengthens the attractiveness of gold. Key events: If the US PCE data shows stagflation (high inflation + weak economy), it may push up gold; if inflation eases, rising expectations of rate cuts may also be good for gold.
Technical key points：
Trend: Bulls are strong. After breaking through the historical high of 3057, the next target is the 3100 mark.
Support/resistance:
Support: 3065-3070 (short-term strength and weakness boundary), 3047 (top of the previous range)
Resistance: 3095-3100 (psychological barrier), 3120-3150 after breakthrough
Indicators: Daily and 4-hour moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, RSI is overbought but no divergence has occurred, beware of the risk of a high-level correction.
Operation strategy
Long opportunities:
Ideal entry: Go long after stabilizing at 3065-3070, stop loss below 3057, target 3085-3100.
Aggressive pursuit of long: If it breaks through 3100 quickly and does not break 3090 after falling back, you can follow up with a light position, stop loss 3080, target 3120.
Short opportunities:
Short short attempt: If it touches 3100 for the first time without breaking, you can go short with a light position, stop loss 3105, target 3080.
Deep pullback signal: If it falls below 3060 and the rebound is weak, it may go down to 3047. At that time, you can consider going short after rebounding to 3070.
Summary：
Main strategy: go long on callbacks (3065-3070 area), stop loss 3057, target 3100.
Alternative strategy: After breaking 3100, step back to follow up with long orders, or fall below 3060 and then step back to sell short in the short term.
Key risk control: avoid chasing long positions at high positions and put position management first.
Trade active
Technical analysis of gold: From the weekly chart of gold, after three consecutive weeks of steady upward movement, the current structure has formed four consecutive positive lines, and there is a lack of obvious pressure reference above, so it can only continue to be treated as a large integer range, such as the position of the 3100 mark, which is quite critical. At this stage, the short-term moving average group shows a perfect long arrangement, and the MACD indicator below is also in a golden cross state, so the bulls have once again occupied a clear advantage.
From the gold daily chart, although the latest inflation indicators show a risk of rebound, it is more likely to be caused by the tariff policy. Therefore, risk aversion is undoubtedly the dominant factor, which also caused the gold price to rise to the 3127 line. The current moving average group is an extremely strong upward signal. However, since it is still far away from the current price, beware of the possibility of correction at the beginning of the week. The key long and short price now is the competition for 3100. If the bulls are not strong, if the level is broken, we can see a deep correction. On the whole, our professional and experienced gold trading team recommends that the short-term operation strategy for gold today should be mainly long on pullbacks and short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3135-3140 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3105-3100 support line.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.