Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Tariff War Easing Signals: Gold Trend Analysis for Next Week

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Since the issue of tariffs broke out, the development of the situation has not been in line with the expectations of the US government. In the face of the escalating trade frictions, the senior officials of the United States have released signals of easing through multiple channels and repeatedly expressed their willingness to hold negotiations with China on issues such as tariffs. After a prudent assessment, China, proceeding from the overall situation of maintaining the stability of bilateral economic and trade relations and promoting the healthy development of the global economy, has decided to engage with the United States.

In fact, there are no real winners in the ongoing standoff of the tariff war. As the world's two largest economies, only by reaching a relatively appropriate solution through negotiation can the fundamental interests of both China and the United States be met. This positive development is bound to significantly reduce the market's risk aversion sentiment. As a traditional safe-haven asset, the price of gold will also be under downward pressure accordingly.

From the perspective of technical analysis, the weekly chart of gold shows that although there was a strong upward pull at the beginning of this week, the daily chart has formed a "big yang front resistance line" pattern. This classic technical pattern indicates that the bullish momentum is close to exhaustion, and the subsequent downside risks have intensified. It is expected that the price of gold will further decline next week. The first support level should be focused on around $3,270. If this level is broken, the price of gold may continue to decline and seek support at the $3,200 level. Investors need to closely monitor the progress of the China-US negotiations and the dynamics of the gold market and adjust their investment strategies rationally.

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After the outbreak of the India-Pakistan conflict, the gold price once soared to a high of $3,435, fully demonstrating its status as a safe-haven asset. However, the market sentiment changed extremely rapidly. Before the conflict was resolved, the gold price had fluctuated and dropped to $3,360. By the close of trading this Friday, the gold price closed at around $3,325, with a cumulative pullback of over $100 from its peak, indicating that the market's pricing of geopolitical risks has become more rational.

With the announcement of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, coupled with the steady progress of the China-US economic and trade talks, the global geopolitical uncertainty has significantly decreased. As a safe-haven asset, the investment attractiveness of gold will be further weakened. The market generally expects that driven by the rebound in risk appetite, the gold price is likely to continue its downward trend. We will keep a close eye on the situation and share with you further developments.
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From a fundamental perspective, geopolitical events such as the India-Pakistan conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Middle East situation have limited boosting effects on the gold price. The market's attention is focused on the Sino-US tariff issue. The significant breakthrough in the Sino-US tariff negotiations is bearish for gold, and the gap-down opening of the gold price in the early trading has fully reflected this news. With the alleviation of the tariff dilemma, the market has shifted to a volatile pattern dominated by bears. However, the tariff negotiations are complex, and the subsequent games will continue. Moreover, the disturbances in the geopolitical situation will still support the gold price from time to time. It is expected that the gold price will maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

Focus on:
resistance levels: 3345-3315-3295
support levels: 3260-3220-3180

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