Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:
Analysis of gold news: Last Friday (January 31), the international gold price hit a record high, breaking through $2,800/ounce, as risk aversion in the market heated up and investors poured into the gold market to deal with the tariff threats reiterated by US President Donald Trump. The intraday high reached $2,817.09/ounce. The price of gold has risen by more than 6% this month, and by 1% on a weekly basis. U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly on Friday as investors took positions before the release of important economic data such as personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal spending and employment costs. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% at its first interest rate meeting this year, citing inflation risks despite political pressure to cut interest rates. Powell said the central bank needs to see "real progress in inflation or some weakness in the labor market" before considering adjustments. Gold remains a strong hedging tool due to lingering policy uncertainty. However, Powell's hawkish remarks on interest rates have prevented gold from receiving a strong boost at the fundamental level. As for the future trend of gold, it still needs the guidance of key data. The non-agricultural data to be released this Friday is undoubtedly an important turning point.
Technical analysis of gold: After the international gold rose in the US market last Friday, the daily line continued to set a new historical high, breaking through the 2800 integer level in one fell swoop. After the previous historical high of 2798 was effectively broken, it was difficult for the market to find the pressure level from a purely technical perspective. After further breaking through 2800 and 2810, the upward space was also continued to open. Pay attention to a few points in the layout of this trading day: In terms of the general trend, for bulls, the current support point is around 2770, which is the point where it bottomed out and stabilized last Wednesday, which is also the starting point. Our team of professional senior gold analysts It is believed that in accordance with the principle that a strong retracement will not break the starting point, as long as the market price remains trading above 2770, the market's bullish atmosphere will not change significantly. Short-term suppression at the opening of this week appeared near 2808, but it is difficult for the market to reverse quickly at this stage. In terms of trend operation, our team of professional and senior gold analysts believes that although callbacks occur from time to time during the session, there is no reason to reverse the trend, so we should still go long with the trend when we step back.
The market price has been oscillating and correcting around 2800. This correction is a strong oscillation with the low point moving up and the high point remaining at a uniform level. In other words, the market price still maintains a strong posture in the process of correcting the previous round of rise, highlighting the strength of the current market trend. After the market price hit 2817, the current low point of the retracement is around 2790. This position is regarded as the short-term support point of the retracement. This week, the focus of the layout can be to arrange long orders above 2770, and the layout will continue to rise after the correction; of course, if the market price unexpectedly falls below the support low of 2790, then it will inevitably increase the retracement and then fluctuate. At this time, we should pay attention to the support situation in the 2775-2770 area before considering going long. Gold's stabilization of 2730 last week heralded the end of the consolidation and correction. Our team of professional and senior gold analysts recommend starting a new upward wave starting from 2770. We can continue to follow the follow-up layout on this week's trading day. Short-term Mainly focus on the support level near 2790. The market effectively fell below 2790, with the lowest reaching 2772. Then it will turn from unilateral strength to high shock. Pay attention to the support of 2770 before considering more. Overall, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends that the short-term operation of gold today is mainly to go long at low levels, supplemented by shorting at high levels of rebound. Pay attention to the resistance of 2805-2810 on the upper side in the short term, and pay attention to the support of 2765-2768 on the lower side in the short term.
Today's Asian session opened with a deep retracement and confirmed. If the intraday retracement to 2765-2768 does not break, the bullish trend will remain unchanged. On the contrary, if the gold price falls below 2765-2768, it is expected to usher in a daily level turning point and close negative adjustment. In short, today's gold price will make further long and short arrangements around this position. The strong resistance above will focus on the vicinity of 2818-20.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long on gold retracement to 2765-2768, stop loss 2757, target 2798-2800; continue to hold if it breaks!
Trade active
Analysis of the latest trend of the gold market:
Gold news analysis: Spot gold fluctuated higher in the U.S. market on Monday (February 3), rebounding to around $2,830 at one point, as U.S. President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports last Saturday (February 1), and a 10% tariff on goods from China starting Tuesday (February 4). The U.S. dollar index rose nearly 1% to a three-week high of 109.62, suppressing gold prices. The United States will also impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada. Trump said late on February 2 local time that new tariffs would "definitely" be imposed on the European Union. While these developments would typically boost precious metals due to safe-haven demand, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the outlook for interest rates offset these pressures. The inflationary impact of tariffs could keep borrowing costs high, which could put pressure on gold because gold does not pay interest, and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar will make it more expensive for foreign buyers to buy gold. Our professional and experienced team of gold analysts believes that profit-taking has also contributed to the decline in gold prices, as gold prices recently hit a record high. Investors will turn their attention to the labor market this week, especially the non-farm payrolls data to be released on Friday.
Gold technical analysis: Gold fell back at the opening of the Asian session on Monday. It is normal for prices to fall from high levels. The higher the price, the greater the room for decline, but it does not hinder the short-term trend structure of the bull market. Therefore, gold is still in a bull market and is still in an upward trend. The callback is for better growth. If there is a large negative line adjustment and decline, corresponding adjustments will be made in the short term. The Asian session opened high and went low. The price fell as low as 2772 during the session, which was exactly at the third support level we gave in early trading. On Friday, the price hit a high of 2817, and fell back to 2772 on Monday, a drop of 45 US dollars. After the Asian market bottomed out and rebounded, five minutes later, There was a weak bull resonance rebound in fifteen minutes, and the upper pressure is currently at 2804. According to the previous trend pattern, the Asian market correction and decline is not a real decline, but a trend influenced by certain factors that induces short selling. The pattern of the European market determines the overall trend during the day. From the trend point of view, the long-term trend of gold is bullish, it is expected to fluctuate upward in the medium term, and it is expected to adjust in the short term. The 4-hour chart shows that gold hit a new high last Friday and is now showing a correction trend. It tested the historical high of 2817 on the upper side, and then fell back to 2772 on Monday. It has now gone out of the correction space of 45 US dollars, and there is a need for continued correction in the short term;
Overall, our professional and experienced gold analyst team recommends that the correction is mainly long, and the rebound is supplemented by shorts. Pay attention to the resistance line of 2830-2835 on the upper side in the short term, and pay attention to the support line of 2795-2800 on the lower side in the short term
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long on the line of 2795-2800 for gold, stop loss at 2788, and target the line of 2816-2830; continue to hold after breaking!
Trade closed: target reached
Gold market dynamics on February 4
Market overview:
Spot gold price: the spot gold price fluctuated in a narrow range.
Monday trend: Gold prices fell first and then rose on Monday, affected by the announcement by US President Trump to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, and the market's concerns about the impact of inflation on economic growth intensified. The US dollar index once rose by more than 1%, causing the gold price to fall to around 2772, but then supported by safe-haven buying and bargain hunting, the gold price rebounded to US2830.39/ounce, and finally closed at US2814.38/ounce.
Influencing factors:
Trump tariff policy: Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which intensified market concerns that the trade war may lead to a slowdown in global economic growth and trigger rising inflation.
Fed rate cut expectations: After the tariff news was announced, the market lowered its expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, and futures prices showed that the probability of two rate cuts this year was only 50%.
Global economic impact: Analysts believe that once tariffs are implemented, the economies of Canada and Mexico will face the risk of recession, and the eurozone economy may also stagnate further.
EU response: EU leaders said that if the United States imposes tariffs, Europe will be prepared to fight back, but also called for rationality and negotiation.
Technical analysis:
Yesterday's trend: Gold technically suppressed first and then rose. After the opening of the Asian session, the price of gold fell under pressure at the 2805 mark. After accelerating downward to the 2772 mark in the European session, it rebounded. The price of gold accelerated to rise to around 2830 in the US session and fell under pressure, and finally closed at around 2813.
Today's strategy: Today's support below focuses on the 2800 integer mark. If it stabilizes at this position during the day, it can continue to be bullish. The upper short-term resistance focuses on the 2828-30 mark. If it first touches the 2830 mark, it can be shorted once and then look at the shock decline. The short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 2790 mark. Before the daily level falls below this position, the main long pattern will continue to remain unchanged.
Summary:
Short-term strategy: Today, the upper pressure is 2830, and it can be shorted and then fluctuated and fell. The overall support is 2800-2830. Keep the main tone of high-altitude and low-multiple cycles.
Medium-term outlook: Although the strengthening of the US dollar usually has a suppressive effect on the gold market, the price of gold has been rising due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs that has driven the demand for safe havens. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the spread of the bear market in the stock market may drag down gold in the short term, but the destructive tariffs continue to fuel the medium-term bull market of gold.
Risk warning:
Federal Reserve warning: Several Federal Reserve officials warned that the large-scale tariffs currently being implemented by the Trump administration will bring inflation risks, but they did not explain how this will affect their views on monetary policy in an obviously uncertain environment.
Operational suggestions:
Long strategy: After the intraday retracement to the 2800 mark, you can go long, stop loss 2794 and target near 2828-30.
Short strategy: You can go short when the 2830 mark is touched for the first time, stop loss 2835 and target near 2800.
Note:
Market volatility: Due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, market volatility may intensify. Investors need to operate with caution and control risks.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.