MONTHLY GOLD IDEA
Updated
TECHNICAL reasons: Since the Year started every Monthly close on GOLD has been Bearish; 2 months ago (Feb) we closed on an engulfing 1,2,3 pin pattern; last month (March) we had follow through with a long wick which caused us to spike back up to 50% Fibonacci and make a *potential* double top, but I believe these will be the last highs we will be seeing for a long time.
As for FUNDAMENTAL reasons the actual NFP (Non Farm Pay Roll) figure at the beginning of the month was 916K, the forecast was 652K, and lastly the previous figure was 468K so we've exceeded the forecast and done nearly twice as much as previous this is really good for the economy, also America is doing amazingly with the production of vaccines and setting up camps, and these fundamentals should strengthen the DOLLAR. This causes currency pairs that have (USD) as the quoted pair to come down over the month. *BUT THEN GOLD IS A COMMODITY AND SOMETIMES DOES IT OWN THING*
For INDICATORS lovers, there is a strong 12H Bearish Divergence (RSI) which could give us a wave down and this is not confirmed yet but if tomorrow we close on an engulfing 1,2,3 pin pattern there will be also a DAILY Bearish Divergence (RSI) which is the last confirmation I need for this trade.
If I was Position Trader I would have taken this at the top with an SL (Stop Loss) above the wick of the first retest which would be around 120 pips with a TP (Take Profit) target at -50% | I know this target might be new for you ;) | which would bring us down to 1200 pips as the move for this month and end the month with a price at around 1640.00. Another reason we could be seeing 1640 is because if we measure the size of first wave before the 50% retracement and put it at the top (showing on the trade idea) this second wave would bring us right on target!
HOWEVER I AM NOT a position trader so I will be entering and taking profits along the way. By the way i'm just a 21 year old forex gambler with 3 years of experience in this market and anything can happen.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A SIGNAL OR REASON FOR ANYONE TO TAKE THEIR LIFE SAVINGS AND PUT IT ON THIS TRADE, THIS IS JUST AN IDEA AND I'M JUST PUTTING MY MONEY WHERE MY MOUTH IS AT THE COMFORT OF MONEY I CAN AFFORD TO GAMBLE! :) Good luck Traders
As for FUNDAMENTAL reasons the actual NFP (Non Farm Pay Roll) figure at the beginning of the month was 916K, the forecast was 652K, and lastly the previous figure was 468K so we've exceeded the forecast and done nearly twice as much as previous this is really good for the economy, also America is doing amazingly with the production of vaccines and setting up camps, and these fundamentals should strengthen the DOLLAR. This causes currency pairs that have (USD) as the quoted pair to come down over the month. *BUT THEN GOLD IS A COMMODITY AND SOMETIMES DOES IT OWN THING*
For INDICATORS lovers, there is a strong 12H Bearish Divergence (RSI) which could give us a wave down and this is not confirmed yet but if tomorrow we close on an engulfing 1,2,3 pin pattern there will be also a DAILY Bearish Divergence (RSI) which is the last confirmation I need for this trade.
If I was Position Trader I would have taken this at the top with an SL (Stop Loss) above the wick of the first retest which would be around 120 pips with a TP (Take Profit) target at -50% | I know this target might be new for you ;) | which would bring us down to 1200 pips as the move for this month and end the month with a price at around 1640.00. Another reason we could be seeing 1640 is because if we measure the size of first wave before the 50% retracement and put it at the top (showing on the trade idea) this second wave would bring us right on target!
HOWEVER I AM NOT a position trader so I will be entering and taking profits along the way. By the way i'm just a 21 year old forex gambler with 3 years of experience in this market and anything can happen.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A SIGNAL OR REASON FOR ANYONE TO TAKE THEIR LIFE SAVINGS AND PUT IT ON THIS TRADE, THIS IS JUST AN IDEA AND I'M JUST PUTTING MY MONEY WHERE MY MOUTH IS AT THE COMFORT OF MONEY I CAN AFFORD TO GAMBLE! :) Good luck Traders
Note
THE TARGET IS 1609.00!!!Note
THIS TRADE IS NOW INVALID has we have made a Higher Low
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